Premier Foods Share Discussion Threads

[johnsoho] 21/1/2020 19:08

Pretty good trading update I thought, think the share price might perhaps double in the next 9 months or so....fingers crossed anyway.

Premier Foods plc

17 January 2020

17 January 2020

Premier Foods plc (the "Company" or the "Group")



Quarter 3 Trading Statement for 13 weeks ended 28 December 2019

Strong Q3 performance, profit expectations unchanged & full year Net debt/EBITDA target of 3.0x on track


-- Q3 Group sales up +2.6% and up +2.5% Q3 year to date
-- Q3 UK sales up +3.6% and +3.3% Q3 year to date; 10(th) consecutive quarter of growth
-- Outperforming the market, with share gains in 7 out of 8 major brands(3)
-- Mr. Kipling sales up +10% in Q3
-- Non-branded sales returned to growth in Q3
-- Profit expectations for the full year remain unchanged
-- On track to meet target of 3.0x Net debt/EBITDA by March 2020

Alex Whitehouse, Chief Executive Officer
"Today we're reporting another strong quarter with Group sales up +2.6% and UK sales up +3.6%. Our UK business has now delivered 10 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and has consistently outperformed the market. Our biggest brand, Mr. Kipling, has again been instrumental to this continuing momentum, with increased sales of 10% supported by TV advertising and new product ranges. Our more seasonally focused brands grew by over 5% in the quarter and in 2019 we sold over 200 million mince pies, 7% more than 2018."

"Our proven branded growth model of delivering new product innovation based on consumer trends together with high quality advertising behind our major brands continues to work very well. In Q3 we doubled our UK marketing investment with more to come in Q4, along with a number of new product launches including Cadbury Crème Egg choc cakes and Mr. Kipling mini pies and tarts. We are making good progress towards our cost savings goals and are on track to deliver GBP5m savings over the next 2 years to further increase investment into the branded growth model. This performance, in our key trading period, reconfirms our unchanged profit expectations for the full year and we remain on track to meet our Net debt/EBITDA leverage target of 3.0x(5) by March 2020."

[american idiot] 20/1/2020 11:14

Been the case all morning Dealer1972...

Started with 150k's, then 100k's and a steady trickle of 50k, 25k and 10k sells all morning..Which makes me think profit taking as completely the opposite was happening last week.

Obviously some big players are playing here at present.

A little premature perhaps, but the sells seems to have dried up now...and the share price is bouncing a little :-)

[dealer1972] 20/1/2020 11:10

Bid being constantly hit with chunks of 50k, very high volume.Normally drops after results as news blackout until next trading results generally. Prime short target! ;)

[isis] 17/1/2020 15:24

Looks like the Hedge Fund/Bots are playing with this one now.

[18bt] 17/1/2020 07:57

Slight ouperformance against market expectations - but someone clearly got wind of this at lunchtime yesterday. The next year should see this move into safer territory - they are still constrained by high debt levels, but it should throw off free cashflow in the £40m region. Will this allow dividends to be started albeit at a nominal level in 2021? The results of the pension scheme valuation will be crucial.

What's a fair valuation for this now: PE of 6-7x? which would give share price of 51-60p? I think it is close to becoming a recovery stock.

[prokartace] 15/1/2020 12:11

Well looking at potential new territory on the share price Fingers(not fish!) crossed

[shaker44] 20/12/2019 14:57

Thanks.surprised

[leedslad001] 20/12/2019 14:25

Interview on sky news business very bullish all trading going well

[shaker44] 20/12/2019 14:22

Interesting. Thought this was going nowhere. You hear/read something??

[leedslad001] 20/12/2019 14:03

Just bought in today

[lammylover] 22/11/2019 19:47

JP Morgan take a stake in Premier Foods - behind todays 8.5% rise? Back into the 40ps. Hoping this is start of some share price progress and hopefully get my investment back plus with some interest! Rich

[daz1712] 21/11/2019 13:10

Seems to have turned the corner with the debt mountain 5 years ago, could well be a good long term investment here, eps growth will happen year on year even with flat sales growth, because of the massive interest savings in my opinion

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2019 21:30

Has moved well above 200 day MA

[hippo] 12/11/2019 18:28

All aboard, express service to 60p....

[shaker44] 28/9/2019 16:12

You got that right! Nope. A fresh salmon steak, fresh pineapple, and coconut milk in my cappuccino as I am now lactose intolerant. Scary how much processed stuff I used to Eat and enjoy!

[galatea99] 28/9/2019 15:50

You aren't opening a tin of "John West" salmon for your "tea", then.
Followed by a tin of syrupy fruit salad or sweet pineapple slices?
Then perhaps some dessicated coconut rock cake with the second cuppa?
Ah, those were the days, who needs all this healthy stuff?

[shaker44] 28/9/2019 12:36

I agree. Some old brands are just past their sell by dates and can not be revived. Hard to visualize a hovis ad that would appeal to millennial. Unless vegan gluten free, then wouldn't be Hovis.
As they rightly say, nostalgia ain't what it used to br

[galatea99] 28/9/2019 08:17

Is the 49% stake in Hovis still valued at zero?

It seems that the 51% owner, Cores Group, is managing the brand much better than PFD under Darby ever could.

"The maker of Hovis bread has narrowed its losses significantly after the sale of two flour mills last year.

The breadmaker now controlled by Gores Group, an American investment firm, reduced losses in 2018 to £3.5 million, compared with £11.7 million a year earlier. In 2016 the company made a £34.2 million loss.

The Hovis brand was started in 1886 by Richard “Stoney” Smith. It became part of Rank Hovis McDougall in 1962 and was bought by Premier Foods in 2007. Premier Foods sold a 51 per cent stake to Gores Group in 2014 and the embattled food group has since written down the value of its stake to zero. The Hovis “boy on the bike” advert in 1973 has been voted Britain’s favourite advert."



Perhaps there is some hidden value here? Would Hovis not be a wholesome brand to appeal to the health-conscious Clerkenwell types, as a product or as a brand to be revived successfully?

[diku] 19/9/2019 22:49

Buying in here is like supporting insiders lifestyle...just plod along...you might get lucky on the odd occasion on price movement..

[nobbyx] 11/9/2019 00:15

Isn't that exactly what PFD has been doing for years? One-by-one selling off those brands that still have any perceived value in them in an attempt to keep bankers and pension-fund trustees at bay.
Since 2011 Premier has sold Quorn, Typhoo Tea, Le Pain Croustillant and Sofrapain, Crosse and Blackwell, Fray Bentos, Smedleys, Marlow Foods, Brookes Avana, Haywards Pickles, Hartleys Jam, Sun-Pat Peanut Butter, Robertson's Jams and Marmalade,the Powdered Foods and Drinks Division and the majority control of Hovis.
Fat lot of good it's done them.

Don't forget that today's price of about 32P a share comes after the 1 for 10 consolidation of May 2012. The share price in old money is just over 3p.
It's a zombie which manages to stagger from poor trading statement to poor trading statement by periodically selling off another bit of itself. For some reason in late 2013, I think, the share price temporarily shot up to about 180P. I got out at about 163P. Within a couple of weeks it was down again to about the present level.

I'm on this BB because I've got a soft spot for PFD - it taught me it's one of the types of share to avoid.

[justiceforthemany] 10/9/2019 17:48

High debt yes but this company still holds some good well known brands such as Ambrosia, Mr Kipling, Sharwoods, Homepride, Bisto and Batchelors. Selling even a couple could reduce debt significantly by up to a £100M+. P/E is also super low around 4.

[s34icknote] 17/7/2019 07:30

Sales all well and good .Margins ??Sicknote