So purple are you in or out atm? |
 The Opportunity
FD today provided an update to their research note on PRD and reiterated "35p target price"
lets look at the detail...
the basis of FD 35p target share price is based on Risked NAV 37.6p ....
MOU fan 294.8BCF /$146.3m
Middle sands 319.5BCF/$72.2m
Jurassic Nutech (2m) 36.3BCF/5.5m
Total 650.6BCF/$223.9m/37.6p "risked"
Now the interesting bit..... unrisked...
so testing, 2 phases...
Ph1 due to commence in approx weeks time, ph2 there after..
What is 650BCF worth once flow tested ????
a staggering $1242m/208.6p
you can buy today for 12p
on top of their unrisked upside on a succesful flow test FD commented on the potential upside to the Jurassic, which we have potential drilling to follow the 2phases of testing...
they estimate the following...
126skm structure
RF 80%
20m net sand
605BCF GIIP
484BCF recoverable
As they rightly state 20m could be low as we are
hunting for 200m, but even so they offer further upside of $590m or 99p, with 360BCF net to PRD
making a total price target unrisked of 307.6p
based on the info to date, one could argue there is more than 650BCF net to the company which offers further upside..
"The opportunity"
208.6p on successful flow test to prove up 650BCF net "fully funded" to commence in a week
307.6p on appraising the Jurassic and finding 20m net sand, 10% of the estimated gross reservoir.."fully funded" to commence after testing April/May
T&T
Ireland
in for free
Link to FD note via LinkedIn |
Agree Nic SCAP were with them up until half an hour ago, so hopefully some after hour trades to follow :-) |
PLHC have mopped up loads of selling today....
gla |
You said you were spurring debate. Do you mean puff from the magic dragon? |
run out of puff. i v much doubt itll run much higher before results |
Should break 12p soon! |
Yup good day ...
Looks ready to move up now from 10.75 - 11.30 |
Great start for PRD today. |
Hopefully we see 14p by end of January. Gla |
Another gap to close on chart to 13.75. |
pro wont be around
he blew his account. |
Looks good for 12p + today |
ok im in with 100k lets see if theres any fizz before results
only looking for a 20%gain gl |
Morning all
Wealready know the Nearby basin flowed @ 1mmcfd from just a thin 1m sand
We know PRD have thicker sands ,over pressurised and high porosity 25%
Potential sands found to date over 150m
We need 50mmcfgpd for CNG
We also have drilling planned in 4 wells
Remember Mou2 was the sweet spot with 120m sand expected and a 1 in 10 chance of 1000ft sands |
The results are most likely be better than expectations:
MOU-3 has demonstrated the possible continuity, subject to rigless testing results and a future infill well, of gas sands penetrated in MOU-1 with similar sands encountered in MOU-3. In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km(2).
The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 40p |
2p on a bad result |
20p to 40p upon better than expected flow rates.
:) |
so the cap may reach 90-120m on a successful flow test....20p
not even a four bagger...a one bagger
not that exciting really and plenty of time to get in risk free and ride it up if it comes in. |
Oct7, 2020
15mins onwards...
"This is the best prospect I've ever seen in 44 years in the business and thats because of its commercial attractiveness, its cheap drilling, its geology first and foremost and I think Im in a position to say that because Ive been involved in Libya, Ive been involved in Argentina, Ive been involved in Colombia, Ive been involved in Abu Dhabi over 44 years and I have never ever seen anything where I can spend two and a half million dollars and get a TCF of gas two kilometres from a pipeline with good geology that Im very, very comfortable with and that's why Im a 20 percent shareholder ,this is a fantastic opportunity, its risk reward is unbeatable."
Was PG correct ?
Results todate .
Mou3 was to appraise the MOU fan but also test the shallower targets
The MOU fan is mapped to an area covering 30sqkm+..
P50 295BCF was based on 19m of sand
But drilling confirmed 43m
The resources likely to be P10 or more
the shallower targets ...
predrill...
MA/TGB6 sands were deemed to be 6sqkm structure but based on data points they now can map it to 58sqkm structure
Also 5 sands were encountered with an overall thickness of 11.5m where as pre drill again on P10 basis was 10m
So P10 or more but the structure also confirmed x9 the size
The excitement is clear to see
"In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km². The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations."
lets look at what we have so far
MOU 1 - 10m & 12m
MOU 3 - shallow 11m & 11.5m & 43m MOU fan
MOU 4 - 50m & 12m & 2m
total 151.5m ..
MOU4 also confirmed the MOU fan extends further ..
10-12km , so potentially extra 33-40% in terms of area which wasn't allowed in the figures...
so we could be looking at 850BCF+ in the MOU fan alone
shallower i estimate around 376BCF
but now 50m in M1 sand in shallower target MOU 4 where non was expected, we don't have any info on this in terms of area, but 19m for the mou fan over a an area of 30sqkm was 295BCF P50, add in MOU 1 , MOU 3 shallow shallow targets, probably as a guesstimate
1.5TCF net to PRD ??
The licence area is the equivalent of 60 North seablocks ..
So far we have barely scratched the surface..
Just 50sqkm explored of a potential 5000sqkm grabben kitchen..
The whole basin is charged
Morocco offers a once in a lifetime opportunity...
onshore low operating costs
no tax for the first 10 years
5% royalty after 10bcf
Not long to find out on the numbers !! |
CRCL was a tiddler. PRD has already risen massively from the days when it was a 2m cap tiddler company.it is a 55m cap company today......very different beasts
we shall see atb |
having said that i may be in for a quick trade to see if theres any froth prior to testing results.undecided.
personally i doubt it but you never know it may be worth a punt.youve got to remember theres been dilution since the stock reached the heady days of 20p
never hold stock through oil and gas results.not my style.atb |
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