Thanks for your work Keith.
I think there must be oil somewhere to have that much gas and often the oil dwarfs the gas.At least we have found lots of gas for now in Guercif.
As a side note where has the massive gas in Algeria migrated from is an interesting question too. Might not all be in the Sahara in Algeria.
Algeria has 159TCF of gas and only 15bill barrels of oil. |
Ohdear, didn't see your post, thanks all the same. |
Thanks Nametrade, appreciated.If I'm not mistaken I believe that's GRH's area of speciality (amongst many others). |
HSSI is one of the reasons that has excited GRH here. Only few weeks to find out just how accurate it is.
ITR before next Thursday hopefully.
Conventional testing starts on or before next Thursday. Completes, at most, 14 days after that. |
"purple11 - 16 Jan 2024 - 08:33:33 - 1371 of 1376 Predator Oil and Gas New Moderated thread - PRD
run out of puff. i v much doubt itll run much higher before results"
Blimey. Words fail me. |
Affc
HSSI is hyperspectral satellite imagery
You could do worse than to have a read about it in the context of hydrocarbons.
Regards, |
Thanks Keith for another interesting post,Just one question if I may, what does the acronym of "HSSI" mean?Cheers |
 @mariopeter - I posted this on the lse board overnight re. Jurassic. Any ideas?
"I would welcome your thoughts on exactly what might have been drilled towards the bottom of MOU-4. The RNSs of 11th & 13th July do not appear to give us the whole story.
11/7: "The top Jurassic carbonate objective was reached at 1135 metres TVD MD, 253 metres deeper than the estimated depth pre-drill based on no well control. A thick section of 175 metres of claystones capped the Jurassic carbonate section " and
"The speculative pre-drill Jurassic carbonate horizon has now been validated in MOU-4. Seismic remapping and evaluation of the Jurassic using the new MOU-4 well control point and data yet to be analysed from the well will be required to further de-risk the Jurassic objective."
13/7: [NuTech analysis shows likely gas sands at] "1139 to 1143 metres TVD MD, including the top of the Jurassic carbonates. 2 metres of likely gas reservoir with average porosity 19.9% (maximum 20.6%) and average gas saturation 56% (maximum 73%)."
Then on 30th August we were told: "A field trip is being planned for the autumn to evaluate the reservoir potential of the entire interval of interest in Jurassic surface exposures to the south of the Guercif licence area. Geochemical source rock quality and maturation studies, including evidence for migrated gas, for the Jurassic section penetrated in the MOU-4 well are expected to be completed in September."
So we know that at least 175m of claystones, plus 4m of other strata which includes 2m identified by NuTech as gas charged, giving a minimum of 179m Jurassic, has been drilled. Importantly, what we don't know is the TD for MOU-4. If MOU-4 was drilled deeper than the originally stated target of the Jurassic carbonate reef, apparently found at 1143m, maybe it encountered further interesting Jurassic sections, and it is these that are being evaluated as oil/NGL source rocks.
I was a little puzzled by the 12th January RNS mention of "MOU-4: Thin Jurassic dolomitic reservoirs" as intervals for Phase 2 testing. Does this mean that the original Jurassic carbonate reef structure is dolomitised? Or is reference being made to a different structure - either within the 175m of claystones above the target, or strata drilled at an unknown depth beneath the reef?
It makes no sense to be evaluating a gas-bearing stratum for its potential to be an oil source rock, so I assume they must be talking about something deeper. It is also clear that the Jurassic TWT maps in the August 2023 CPR need to be completely redrawn, possibly after further seismic reprocessing. I am curious if this will be addressed in the forthcoming MOU-area ITR, or whether they need more time to integrate:
*updated Jurassic seismic
*incorporation of MOU-4 Jurassic petrology
*results of Jurassic field mapping.
Additionally, Cube has stated that HSSI indicates oil & NGLs at MOU-NE.
It is too early to be making speculative calculations as to what MOU-NE might hold. |
So purple are you in or out atm? |
The Opportunity
FD today provided an update to their research note on PRD and reiterated "35p target price"
lets look at the detail...
the basis of FD 35p target share price is based on Risked NAV 37.6p ....
MOU fan 294.8BCF /$146.3m
Middle sands 319.5BCF/$72.2m
Jurassic Nutech (2m) 36.3BCF/5.5m
Total 650.6BCF/$223.9m/37.6p "risked"
Now the interesting bit..... unrisked...
so testing, 2 phases...
Ph1 due to commence in approx weeks time, ph2 there after..
What is 650BCF worth once flow tested ????
a staggering $1242m/208.6p
you can buy today for 12p
on top of their unrisked upside on a succesful flow test FD commented on the potential upside to the Jurassic, which we have potential drilling to follow the 2phases of testing...
they estimate the following...
126skm structure
RF 80%
20m net sand
605BCF GIIP
484BCF recoverable
As they rightly state 20m could be low as we are
hunting for 200m, but even so they offer further upside of $590m or 99p, with 360BCF net to PRD
making a total price target unrisked of 307.6p
based on the info to date, one could argue there is more than 650BCF net to the company which offers further upside..
"The opportunity"
208.6p on successful flow test to prove up 650BCF net "fully funded" to commence in a week
307.6p on appraising the Jurassic and finding 20m net sand, 10% of the estimated gross reservoir.."fully funded" to commence after testing April/May
T&T
Ireland
in for free
Link to FD note via LinkedIn |
Agree Nic SCAP were with them up until half an hour ago, so hopefully some after hour trades to follow :-) |
PLHC have mopped up loads of selling today....
gla |
You said you were spurring debate. Do you mean puff from the magic dragon? |
run out of puff. i v much doubt itll run much higher before results |
Should break 12p soon! |
Yup good day ...
Looks ready to move up now from 10.75 - 11.30 |
Great start for PRD today. |
Hopefully we see 14p by end of January. Gla |
Another gap to close on chart to 13.75. |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
