 Question of volume , porosity , permeability and connection. Answers in that order are huge, excellent and excellent and don't know yet (if you believe the CPR in the prospectus for MOU 1). The connection element is somewhat de-risked by cheapness of drilling, excellent fault line connection and excellent flow rates in the analogous Gharb basin nearby. MOU 3 and 4 drilling shows some sands the same as those at MOU1.
PG has never worried about flows instead focusing on volume historically.
We'll see flows later but the oncoming IPR should make very good reading. Hopefully they will also contain volumes, porosity and permeability on the Jurassic as well cause we know that is potentially an enormous resource to be appraised later in the year (and seem keen to accelerate).
There are lots of sands and therefore lots of chances at flowing. It's all worth zip if every single sand (of the many) is unexpectedly troublesome. High pressure sands are in the mix. Question of probabilities and my view is that when they sell Morocco that the price they achieve will be multiples of today's market cap. A good flowing small 50bcf, for example, would be sold for double the current market cap. Hate to tell you but think we are in the TCFs not bcfs already (pre Jurassic).
These are the facts. Don't let the market movement determine your move. Play it as you like. May be able to grab some cheap stock after the flow results. The IPR however will cause a stir particularly if Jurassic numbers are in and why would they not be. I know if I invested in another company planning to drill something as big as the Jurassic the market cap would be higher than today's price. |
its all just another trade dave.means v little to me.im in and out of stocks all the time.
anyway ill leave you chaps to it. good luck. |
No!What you mean is you are a deceptive individual who plays their position! |
so far a very muted reaction to the news....... |
i change my mind like the wind with stocks.
you have to to stay in the game.gl |
Typical!This was your comment 9days ago.expecting this to trade in the 14-20p range once testing schedule is announced gl |
I have no doubt the flows will be exceptional.
The shares having consolidated over the last 6 months will start to rise again towards the 20p and much higher during 2024. |
i dont think theyll be any run up in price for the flow test results thats just not happening in oil and gas stocks these days.conversley they seem to drop abit before results these days.
the days of run ups and easy money are long gone.
youre either in for results or youre not which i never am so personally leaving these plays alone. far too risky for me one bad result and this will be trading around 2-4p.plenty of time to get in for more meat on the bone if results are good.atb |
12 Jan 2024
Predator Oil & Gas, the Jersey based Oil and Gas Company with near-term operations focussed on Morocco and Trinidad, has provided an operations update and details of its 2024 forward work programme.
Highlights
Phase 1 Guercif rigless well testing scheduled to commence before 25 January with Phase 2 using Sandjet scheduled for February/March
Site visit to Cory Moruga scheduled for 22 - 26 January to begin planning for well workovers
Cory Moruga Independent Technical Report gives P50 and P90 Contingent and Prospective gross recoverable resources of 14.31 and 21.41 million barrels respectively
H1 2024 well workovers forecast to generate gross net operating profit of US$ 3.1 million in 12 months from H2 2024 to H1 2025
Cory Moruga Field Development Plan for P90 Contingent and Prospective gross recoverable resources of 9.13 million barrels gives gross US$202.12 million undiscounted net operating profit (NPV@10% US$85.14 million with IRR 240.9%)
Well planning for discretionary high impact Jurassic well commenced for April/May drilling
Fully funded for all 2024 firm commitments
Potential for gas monetisation and Cory Moruga production revenues to fund discretionary drilling
Low corporate and operating overhead maintained despite increase in activity
Paul Griffiths, Executive Chairman of Predator, commented:
'I am pleased to confirm that 2024 is set to be the busiest year for activity since the Company was incorporated.
The addition of a substantial, near virgin, field appraisal and development asset onshore Trinidad provides the Company with the potential to generate strongly positive cashflows in 2024 to contribute organically towards further development of its assets.
The milestones to be met for potential monetisation of gas in Morocco, subject to the results of the Phase 1 rigless testing, are now clearly defined from a regulatory, technical, marketing and operational perspective. The objective over the last six months since the completion of the 2023 drilling programme has always been focussed on ensuring that all the elements for monetising gas are put in place to support an application for an Exploitation Concession.
Management's appetite for efficiently drilling within pre-drill budgets moderate risk but high impact wells that potentially generate a multiple uplift on drilling costs remains strong and aligned with current market sentiment. For this reason we are also focussed on accelerating the drilling of the Jurassic target in Morocco and a high impact appraisal well in Cory Moruga at a later date. The Company is in a position of strength where it can dictate the timing of exercising high impact discretionary drilling opportunities either through eventual Cory Moruga production revenues or through an accelerated process triggered by potential early partial monetisation of gas assets, which are subject to a successful rigless testing programme.
The Company is however also able to fund its firm 2024 commitments whilst maintaining some discretionary cash on the balance sheet without considering potential production revenues from Cory Moruga in 2024.
Funding the CNG development can be achieved using discretionary cash on the balance sheet combined with a leasing arrangement for CNG trailers and equipment. For this reason it has been important to develop the scale of potential CNG gas sales in Guercif, in a success case, to provide greater leverage to negotiate leasing agreements with greater materiality for potential service providers.
The CNG development schedule will be updated after the Phase 1 rigless testing results.
The Company has maintained strict oversight over its operating and commercial overheads and despite the exponential increase in activity we will continue to practice restraint when it comes to controlling costs.' |
Excellent write up in the Armchair trader:
Can Predator Oil & Gas shares get back to 20p?
By Stuart Fieldhouse
10th October 2023
Investors in UK-listed Predator Oil & Gas [LON:PRD] will be wondering whether this energy play is going to make it back to 20p. Stock rallied back in June, ramping up from around 5p to trade at over 20p in July, but the shares have since sunk back to trade in the 10-12p range.
Much of the excitement in the early summer was generated by Predator Oil & Gas’ exploration in Morocco. The company issued an update on its North Africa operations last week, saying that it has opened exploratory discussions with a group focussed on the downstream energy business to potentially sell its share of gas produced at the Guercif well head in Morocco. This is subject to an approved CNG development plan.
The company operates the Guercif petroleum agreement in Morocco, which is prospective for tertiary gas less than 10km from the important Maghreb gas pipeline.
Rigless testing programme
In order to accelerate the timing of negotiations for the sale of its share of gas, Predator has also decided to amend its rigless testing programme. The company’s MOU-3 well will now be the first well to be tested, it said in a statement last week. This will establish the potential to maximise gas flow rates for the purpose of setting commercial parameters for the sale of Predator’s share of potential gas produced to the present and future CNG industrial market.
Predator Oil & Gas says it has been waiting for over three weeks for an in-country wireline logging unit. A perforating depth control log is required to depth correlate the perforating points with a similar log run before the casing was set during well completion.
Predator said it is confident that the testing programme will deliver the results necessary to progress commercial negotiations for the offtake of its share of future potential CNG gas from the well head.
Investors are hoping that the test results will boost the stock considerably. Things have not been helped by the widening pre-tax loss for the company with administrative expenses increasing fourfold.
Predator says it is also investigating other ‘high impact’ drilling opportunities in Morocco.
Predator’s portfolio consists of upstream exploration, appraisal and development, and near-term producing assets onshore Morocco, offshore Ireland and onshore Trinidad. Since its formation, Predator has built a diversified portfolio of oil and gas interests with the key focus being the pursuit of enhanced oil recovery opportunities using carbon dioxide injection in Trinidad and exploration and appraisal gas assets offshore Ireland and onshore Morocco.
Enhanced oil recovery uses carbon dioxide injection to bring mature oil fields back to life. Predator is using this for its onshore Trinidad project and exploring for and appraising gas discoveries around existing infrastructure offshore Ireland for maximum economic benefit with a reduced environmental footprint.
Predator’s core funding strategy is based on generating near-term oil production and cash flow from drilling infill production wells which can subsequently be used for CO2 enhanced oil recovery. This can yield a significant uplift in production rates and cash flow for a much reduced capital outlay compared to drilling new development wells. |
Looking good here |
The share price will most likely retest the highs of 20p close it achieved in July 2023 |
Like the chart too with the drift to be reversed. |
We have waited some time 🤪 |
Well done PG
You have finally listened to us and delivered a detailed and thorough update, which clearly outlines the plan for the year ahead
For investors to hear fully funded , with so much value creation to be confirmed throughout the year ,makes the investment case compelling
GLA |
Should the ITR use the letters TCF and testing with "zero geological risk" come through as expected then little old PRD will be share of 2024 and a billion valuation might well be conservative. From memory PG felt 40bcf in Morocco could be worth $100m to $150m. Some of us have Zulu..ed this for a while and happy to be overweight. Some grit does not go amiss. |
Paul Griffiths, Executive Chairman of Predator, commented:
"I am pleased to confirm that 2024 is set to be the busiest year for activity since the Company was incorporated.
The addition of a substantial, near virgin, field appraisal and development asset onshore Trinidad provides the Company with the potential to generate strongly positive cashflows in 2024 to contribute organically towards further development of its assets. |
Hi Keith a good post. Just to say the ITR is hoped for BEFORE testing so plenty for you to mull over end of this month..ish.
"An updated Independent Technical Report ("ITR"), incorporating the 2023 MOU-3 and MOU-4 well results is currently being prepared by Scorpion Geoscience Ltd. for the Guercif block and resource potential of the prospective area tested by MOU-1, MOU-2, MOU-3 and MOU-4. The Company will use it best endeavours to publish the ITR before the Phase 1 rigless testing commences." |
Bigpecs
I have |
An update at last.....And a good news one at that!!!!
Fully funded for all 2024 commitments....Nice one!
gla |
What a great update. In for 100k. Looking forward to transformational results over the next couple of months. Fully funded for 2024! |
Fill your boots it will not stay this low forever and agree what a super update, onwards and upwards GLA |
What a great update.
Fully funded for all drills and testing for 2024.
Testing - we will know what we have end of March 2024
This is jigantic in Morocco
Add Trinidad in to the mix
This Company will have a £1b market cap by the end of 2024 |
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