Powerhouse Energy Share Discussion Threads

[englishlongbow] 29/5/2018 10:12

vatnabrek - Key figures were provided in a recent Facts Sheet from W2T (13/4/2018) at the bottom of the first page and top of the second:




CAPEX £5m (includes 1 x 25 tpd module + everything else needed for turn-key operation, funded by W2T and other partners; with additional 25 tpd modules at £3m each if needed)

Revenues = £700k pa gate fees + £567k electricity sales
OPEX = £350k pa

EBITDA = 700k + 567k - 350k = £917k pa

PHE 20% of £917k = £183.4k pa (based on gate fees + electricity sales)


The electricity sales component of the above figures would be 5x higher for hydrogen sales (i.e. £2.835m instead of £567k). Its easy then to do the calculation of the amount accruing to PHE for hydrogen:

Revenues = £700k pa gate fees + £2.835m hygrogen sales
OPEX £350k pa

EBITDA = 700k + 2835k - 350k = £3.185m

PHE 20% of £3.185m = £637k pa (based on gate fees + hydrogen sales)


Sites can be gate fees + either: electricity sales only, hydrogen sales only, or a mixture of electricity sales + hydrogen sales. The mix can be modified over time, including as demand for hydrogen increases.

PHE will also receive a larger payout if they want to contribute to CAPEX.

[englishlongbow] 29/5/2018 09:28

tt, good point. Keith Allaun says PHE could be a FTSE 100 company based on their UK rollout plans i.e. at least 300p share price; and they are expecting 2.5x more rollout in the EU, and roll out in other geographies like Australia, Far East, Midddle East, etc.

So in terms of the share price: 300p for the UK + 750p for the EU + more elsewhere, gives an eventual share price well over 1000p (£10) making it a 2000+ bagger from here.

£1000 investment now could be worth £2 million in future.

[top tips] 29/5/2018 08:34

Another way of looking at it is KA says PHE could be a FTSE 100 company based on their expected activities in the UK (i.e. 300p+) and more for the rest of world, so other details are not so important.

Even one third that prediction and just in the UK would give 100p.

[new tech] 29/5/2018 08:28

They would still need project funding for each SPV and W2T will provide that (particularly in the early years) in a non-dilutive way.

[englishlongbow] 28/5/2018 21:29

How about these first 5 modules for starters and the upfront £500k funding they are getting for the planning/environmental permitting, and KA said they are receiving interest all the time. Roll out will not be an issue.

[city chappy] 28/5/2018 18:03

W2T was founded by entrepreneur and environmental investor Howard White, who also founded AFC Energy. He obviously has access to substantial amounts of capital and a lot of industry contacts, so W2T's balance sheet is irrelevant - all that matters is that W2T delivers projects into which PHE's modules can be deployed - and PHE do not even have to help fund those projects (unless it wants to) as W2T + end users will provide funding, saving PHE share dilution and debt. W2T will also provide AFC fuel cells for any SPV that wants them. This has been several years in the making and it about to come to fruition.

[top tips] 27/5/2018 20:52

Apparently W2T will provide joint funding with the end users, so PHE will not need to raise cash for deployment but will still receive at least 20% pa licenisng fees.

[nelson5100] 27/5/2018 18:46

Rossannan, Although the initial contract is for 24 months from January 2027, it was also disclosed in the RNS announcement that "The contract may be extended if development milestones are met and is subject to cancellation with a 90 day notice period".

Don't forget that there is a close relationship between the two companies including two directors who sit on both boards: PHE's chief executive and the technical director.

[sweepie2] 27/5/2018 18:37

Nice post, not invested but on the watch list

[vatnabrekk] 27/5/2018 17:01

ross: In my mind the final outcome is more important than the speed of getting there. I acknowledge that targets are important. KA has said for some time that he anticipates having the first commercial unit up and running by the end of this year. That's a target that he may hit, or he may miss. But clearly there are concerns about whether the commercial unit will survive the ultra-high temperatures that the prototype has been able to cope with so far. That is the crucial question, and although I believe that it will (otherwise I wouldn't be invested here) it is by no means certain and there is an element of risk, as indeed there is a risk in the development of any new technology.

So as far as I'm concerned, although targets are important, I won't be too concerned if some of them are missed by a bit. What is important for me is proving that the commercial unit does what it says on the tin, and that it is sustainable long term.

[city chappy] 26/5/2018 23:53

25 tpd size modules are also the optimum to be skid mounted and transported in standard size haulage containers allowing faster set up on site. Many will located at pre existing waste facilities and go from production to operation in 3 months according to KA.

[vatnabrekk] 26/5/2018 22:21

That's my understanding as well, elb. KA said about a year ago, perhaps longer ago, that the 25tpd would become the standard module and that they wouldn't be looking to scale-up any further than that, and that as you say they would run several 25tpd units together in parallel to process higher volumes on any one site.

That would also make it easier, more economical and quicker to produce and install the units because they would then be working to a single engineering and assembly plan.

[costax1654x] 26/5/2018 21:05

Phe is good for long term ,for short term Aeg looks much better!

[englishlongbow] 26/5/2018 20:07

My understanding is that a 25 tpd commercial module size is still not technically large so not a problem and 25 tpd modules will be run in parallel to get the larger sizes (e.g. 4 x 25 tpd modules = 100 tpd) rather than trying to go for a more technically challenging single 100 tpd module or larger. Additionally they will still be operating at temperatures below the those for plasma gasification.

[vatnabrekk] 26/5/2018 19:55

superg1 wrote:
"Besides that I spoke at length to a guy that has worked on this type of tech for decades and he says he would be amazed if any advanced material has been found that can withstand the temps in the chamber for industrial use."

That's pretty much what KA said, that so far no one else had been able to operate at these high temperatures, and that's what makes PHE unique and gives it the competitive edge.

And PHE are doing it now - they have a working prototype at Thornton Park that is doing exactly that.

So now the concern is whether it will also work, and survive, if it is scaled up to a 25tpd commercial unit. And of course that is open for discussion, and I believe that we ought to have an intelligent discussion about that very subject, because it is hugely important.