Polymetal Share Discussion Threads

[rasl5] 27/7/2021 11:12

bought yesterday 1516 & 1515 ,i wait for nearly 4 months but i did not wait one more day , it had to come to fill gap below 1500 .

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/7/2021 11:06

Nice of them - 6.2% yield and 9 times earnings not good enough, I guess.

I sorely wonder what information these analysts use to produce their price targets. Some have 1200 and some have 2200. Perhaps suggests that someone doesn't know what they're doing...

[mickinvest] 27/7/2021 11:05

I'll dial in and hopefully someone asks the question on why debt increased so much considering they had bumper earnings cheers

[philanderer] 27/7/2021 10:56

RBC CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 1,725 (1,775) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[andyview] 27/7/2021 10:46

Added a few here, new to precious metals generally and so have also taken FRES and JLP

Thoughts on the choices anyone?


gla

[montyhedge] 27/7/2021 10:40

Conference all 12pm you can listen in.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/7/2021 10:38

Maybe - but too soon to say?

YTD revenue up 12%. Full year cash costs were $638 per oz, 2021 estimate is $700-$750 - so that's up 9-17% (quite a range...)

So profit (EPS) could be up, down or flat based on that costs range. We'll know more with the H1 results.

[mickinvest] 27/7/2021 10:10

Think there is $200m difference to bottom line compared to last year at this stage, still very good value with the 2 large projects nearly completed but not sure on the catalyst for a re-rating short term unless gold price moves substantially higher.

[montyhedge] 27/7/2021 08:57

Nezhda Russia's 4th largest gold deposit, 100% owned by Polymetal starts November, so growing dividends for a long time, if gold price of course remains around $1750.Interims dividend last year 40c so should be higher, any guesses, mind 45c to 55c.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/7/2021 08:48

I think it's fine - and explained. Note the working capital increase and cause(s) and that it should reverse by year-end.

Also remember capex, as well as $0.4bn dividend (the impact on net debt - one quarter's cash generation versus over half a year's cash generation being paid out in that final dividend?) Or in numbers: - Free Cash Flow (operating cash generation less capex) was $600m(!) in 2020 or about $150m per quarter (average). So paying out $400m+ when FCF was c$150m made a dent - temporarily.

Worth also noting that capex after 2021 is forecast to reduce significantly from that $600m level to around $400m p.a. (once the major projects set up has been completed) which will benefit net debt.

I still see EPS broadly similar to last year, given cost increases (because last year's op costs were exceptionally low). With an upside if PM prices increase.

(mildly interested in how the net debt for the quarter end 30 June 2020 was $1,321m, whereas for the half year ended 30 June 2020 it was $1,351m. Ooops...)

[mickinvest] 27/7/2021 08:46

A bit disappointed in the increase in debt by $0.5B. It only increased by $200m last year at this stage after paying $200m dividends ($400m this year) but they had around $100m in gold sales lagging that fell into the 2nd half in 2020. Doesn't leave any room for an increase in dividend unless they increase net debt figure.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/7/2021 08:43

50% of underlying net income for H1, up to 100% maximum of free cash flow for H2.

Does no-one ever read the stuff they put out?

[montyhedge] 27/7/2021 08:28

Conference call at 12pm might give a hint if someone asks the question.

[rogerramjett] 27/7/2021 08:19

That was going to be my question. What interim dividend could we expect to be paid in September ?

[montyhedge] 27/7/2021 07:22

Revenue up 12% to $1274 million H1, another bumper dividend on its way looks like to me.

[fuji99] 27/7/2021 07:21

"All producing mines made budget targets while mechanical completion and start of commissioning at Nezhda represented a key development milestone" - "The project is on track to produce first concentrate in early November".

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/7/2021 07:12

YTD production gold equivalent down 1% at 723 moz (as forecast), no forecast changes - costs as per previous, production as per previous.

Revenue up 12% ytd.

Big projects (Nezhda and POX-2) progressed on schedule. "Nezhda achieved mechanical completion of the key equipment. The project is on track to produce first concentrate in early November in line with the schedule."

Conference call at 12pm.

Give me my money...

[timydogy] 26/7/2021 17:36

The cabal dragged this down just as low as they could before tomorrow am. Results will be up she goes. Fres turn tomorrow, well hope so get my 700p buy order booked. There is a divergence on the miner's charts between price and momentum. One has to go up or one come down. Momentum maybe falling? Prices about to rise.

[trader465] 26/7/2021 17:29

monty - do you think the mm are moving the price and pulling your trousers down to get your 100 Poly shares? 😆😂🤣

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/7/2021 16:48

I wouldn't worry:



Not too shabby.

And going forward, in particular slides 24 and 41.



Note the assumptions on slide 24 (blown out of the water) and the production profile on slide 41. Slight dip in 2021, compensated for by higher silver prices (gold prices only slightly up on 2020 actual) followed by good growth through to 2025.

Quality business.

[rogerramjett] 26/7/2021 16:45

WTF ? Have I missed something? Did POLY shut the doors ? What is wrong with this market right now ?

[trader465] 26/7/2021 16:13

News leaked 😆😂🤣

[montyhedge] 26/7/2021 16:09

News leaked perhaps, can't see them beating last year.