Polar Capital Share Discussion Threads

[diviincomesearch] 10/1/2024 21:12

Robert Gurner used to be the European Forager fund manager before retiring a couple of years ago. Had 7.9% of the share capital in 2022, so a 1% swap to the other Jersey entity a trust company. Either other Polar cap holders or something Gurner has going.

Not institutions taking a position I think.

[pj84] 10/1/2024 20:33

Interesting to see two major investors with notifiable holdings that previously weren't notifiable, not sure what percentage added most recently, but one now with a holding just over 5% and the other with just under 7%.

[mpage] 10/1/2024 16:01

There have been some queries about the dividend. Yes, it's currently uncovered.

POLR has historically appeared to take a ratchet approach to the dividend - increasing where possible but then holding steady (uncovered) in the hope that prospects improve. Schroder does something similar but operates from a lower payout ratio so it has more room

Polar pays a second interim dividend (rather than a final dividend)so that it does not have to secure shareholders' approval at the AGM. There appears to be plenty of surplus capital on the BS to fund it for this year (slide 24 see below).

The decision on the size of the second interim div will be made by the board in late June 24 based on fees earned, needs for capital and with half an eye on what might happen in the future. This is covered by the FD in the H1 presentation at around 19 mins (slide 25). hxxps://youtu.be/G4y4NiHEJAA?t=1140

We may have a better idea after the next AUM update on Friday.

[melton john] 10/1/2024 14:13

When the US sneezes we catch a cold or something like that.
Was it that Stephen English interview where he said the magnificent seven are heading for a fall with Apple m/cap for instance capitalised at the equivalent of the whole UK market or something equally ridiculous. Not hard to see where the money taken out of UK equities went too.

[apad] 10/1/2024 12:47

S&P 500 similar shape similarities, MJ.
I suppose the amplitude depends on the balance between sectors and specific, very highly priced, companies that can dominate an Index.
apad

[melton john] 10/1/2024 12:01

I've added the Nasdaq index. There are some correlations.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[apad] 10/1/2024 11:20

Interesting perspective, MJ.
Am I correct in thinking that this may/mayn't happen under the umbrella of what happens to the US market?
I saw their list of holdings the other day (lost the reference!) and it screamed yoodle.
apad

[melton john] 10/1/2024 11:03

Comparing present chart with a year ago makes me think back at drivers for the share price then vs now. We had a rally starting at the same point which after some profit taking carried on after Christmas to 550p. A big sell then perhaps to crystalise profits before tax year end and then a big rise again prior to ex dividend July 6.
So the decision here is will there be a significant drop before tax-year end this year and will it be worth selling to buy back later. The change in direction of 200 day average makes me think not. Plus reduced capital gains allowance.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[davethehorse] 10/1/2024 08:07

POLR on the slide with the markets looking like they got ahead of themselves on the Santa rally, hopefully a temporary blip creating a buy opportunity

[melton john] 29/12/2023 15:20

"they have a history of having dividend cover of less than 1" not according to Stockopedia figures unless you mean one year:
Last six years cover 1.24___1.63___1.25___1.60___1.06___0.785
Next two years estimated (by six brokers)__0.730___0.777

___________________Net Profit(£)__EPS(p)__DPS(p)__Net Profit(£)__EPS(p)__DPS(p)
Consensus Estimate____32.93m______33.6____46.0____35.15m_________35.7____46.0


Last years total divi payout was £44.5M the net change in cash was £14.2M leaving year end cash of £107M so plenty of reserves to cover earnings shortfall.
Imho the drop in earnings cover is more than already baked in and I don't expect an imminent drop in dividend or share price going so far as to agree with the brokers buy rating.

[tag57] 29/12/2023 12:27

Kaffee- IMO it will depend on whether the management expect a quick bounce back in AUM. I don’t see it myself.
I think they will pay the same divi as last year and put off the decision until next year’s interim.

[kaffee] 29/12/2023 10:22

Masurenguy26 Dec '23 - 08:35 - 577 of 580
0 4 0
I can see no current reason why the 46p dividend would not be maintained.

======================================

Even if EPS for the year comes in below that ? Do they have a history of having dividend cover of less than 1 ?

If they repeat 2nd half in 2023 that they had in 2022, eps for the full year is nearer 41p by my rough calcs (still hungover so forgive the crude maths)

Yes they may go dip below a cover of 1 - but for fund manager is that going to be seen as good stewardship?

All just questions in my mind provoked by the above post. Not me having a dig at the poster.

[davethehorse] 29/12/2023 09:21

Looking good here now....catch up time...;-)

[davethehorse] 28/12/2023 15:11

Has 460p been cracked today..??

[davethehorse] 27/12/2023 09:46

Need to break the resistance at around 460p level, once through a swift move to 500p on the cards, don't forget AuM update 12th Jan...;-)

[masurenguy] 26/12/2023 08:35

I can see no current reason why the 46p dividend would not be maintained.

[11_percent] 26/12/2023 07:51

PJ84.......cheers......will have a look.

[pj84] 24/12/2023 16:59

The dividend comes from the income earned from the management fees of the funds (AUM Assets under management).

The dividend for the last full year was an interim of of 14p and a final dividend of 32p making a total dividend of 46p which at the current share price of 460p is a dividend yield of 10%. No dividend is guaranteed but hopefully if markets start to improve I am hopeful it will be maintained.



The following is a link to the interim results presentation which is just under 10 minutes long and there is a bit about the interim dividend just after 4 minutes 50 seconds

[11_percent] 24/12/2023 15:33

Hi guys.....having a look at this.

Can some one tell me about the divi......do the shares the trust own throw off a significant divi.......or, where the divi cash comes from.

[diviincomesearch] 20/12/2023 15:22

We’ll see. They’ve had a lot of outflows from the Melchior Opportunities fund and U.K. Value fund (£400mn total from end of September to end of November)

Not much inflows into anything but the EM stars of late, but AuM will pick up due to the market bounce. Maybe we’ll be back to around £20bn by year end?

[davethehorse] 20/12/2023 14:02

Breakout now in place and a rapid climb towards 500p on the cards imo...

[davethehorse] 20/12/2023 13:26

Some nice buys going through the market in POLR now....;-)

[zho] 20/12/2023 10:31

Re MNG, I made this post a week or so ago:

MNG - toying with a 12 month high. I thought Investors Chronicle made a reasonable case for buying yesterday, given a 10% dividend yield and what appears to be the rapidly improving performance of their funds, with 70% in the top 2 quartiles for H1 2023, compared to just 20% in FY 2020.

[davethehorse] 20/12/2023 10:19

Looks like another day of MM manipulation again....yawn...they ain't getting mine....;-)

[mister md] 19/12/2023 15:50

Yes MNG has had lift-off, POLR is ready for lift-off !