Polar Capital Share Discussion Threads

[davethehorse] 11/1/2024 12:34

Have added to my holding @ 442p anyway, still plenty of long term value to be had imo, gl all

[riverman77] 11/1/2024 09:11

I have a slight concern with their big global tech funds (39% OF AUM) which I think will struggle to compete with passive ETFs - they've lagged the ETFs pretty much every year and can see more clients switching to passives to get their tech exposure.

[diviincomesearch] 11/1/2024 08:49

I must admit I hadn’t banked on the performance fee, which looks most likely it’s from the Healthcare Opps fund with the late calendar rally in the markets.

Very welcome indeed!

Markets don’t like continued outflows for the narrative. It’s welcome that they continue to slow in the tech fund, although I wonder how much legs there is in that area of the market to keep pushing upwards… as mentioned before U.K. value and the Melchior fund have taken a beating in terms of outflows, and that’s where more of the issue is.

Melchior fund was around £1Bn when acquired. Shedded 40% of that now.

[masurenguy] 11/1/2024 08:27

Positive update with AUM up by £500m inspite of net outflows which demonstrates the strength of the portfolio. If the market improves this year those outflows will become inflows. Meanwhile the 46p dividend provides an excellent yield of 10.1%.

[davethehorse] 11/1/2024 08:16

Market not over impressed....must admit I thought the update would be more positive than this...

[eigthwonder] 11/1/2024 07:59

Unless you were the fund manager of the UK Value fund - that looks like a loss of 25% of AUM. Ouch.

[mister md] 11/1/2024 07:44

RNS AUM - looks OK to me.

[edmonda] 11/1/2024 07:42

"Forecasts up on jump in performance fees" - new research report here:

AUM grew £0.43bn or 2.2% over Q3 of FY24 (01 Oct 23 - 31 Dec 23) to £19.56bn and is now slightly above our previous £19.40bn forecast for the 31 Mar 24 FY-end. Investment performance was exceptionally strong in the quarter, contributing +£1.51bn or +7.9% of opening AUM. This was despite a currency headwind which would have depressed GBP AUM levels of USD holdings (GBP/USD +4% over Q3 from 1.22 to 1.27).

Performance fee profits (net of staff allocations) jumped from the previous marked-to-market £1.3m, to £9.6m. As most PF’s crystallise at the end of December, this increase is now secured and not merely a mark-to-market estimate. FY24 forecasts have been upgraded accordingly.

Our fundamental valuation rises to 600p per share (32% above the current share price) as a result of the increased FY24 forecasts, and a fall in 10Y-gilt-yields (the risk-free rate used in our DCF valuation). This gap between fundamental value and share price is supported by our view that both Polar’s PER (12.3) and that of the sector (13.1) have the potential for a re-rating.

[diviincomesearch] 10/1/2024 21:12

Robert Gurner used to be the European Forager fund manager before retiring a couple of years ago. Had 7.9% of the share capital in 2022, so a 1% swap to the other Jersey entity a trust company. Either other Polar cap holders or something Gurner has going.

Not institutions taking a position I think.

[pj84] 10/1/2024 20:33

Interesting to see two major investors with notifiable holdings that previously weren't notifiable, not sure what percentage added most recently, but one now with a holding just over 5% and the other with just under 7%.

[mpage] 10/1/2024 16:01

There have been some queries about the dividend. Yes, it's currently uncovered.

POLR has historically appeared to take a ratchet approach to the dividend - increasing where possible but then holding steady (uncovered) in the hope that prospects improve. Schroder does something similar but operates from a lower payout ratio so it has more room

Polar pays a second interim dividend (rather than a final dividend)so that it does not have to secure shareholders' approval at the AGM. There appears to be plenty of surplus capital on the BS to fund it for this year (slide 24 see below).

The decision on the size of the second interim div will be made by the board in late June 24 based on fees earned, needs for capital and with half an eye on what might happen in the future. This is covered by the FD in the H1 presentation at around 19 mins (slide 25). hxxps://youtu.be/G4y4NiHEJAA?t=1140

We may have a better idea after the next AUM update on Friday.

[melton john] 10/1/2024 14:13

When the US sneezes we catch a cold or something like that.
Was it that Stephen English interview where he said the magnificent seven are heading for a fall with Apple m/cap for instance capitalised at the equivalent of the whole UK market or something equally ridiculous. Not hard to see where the money taken out of UK equities went too.

[apad] 10/1/2024 12:47

S&P 500 similar shape similarities, MJ.
I suppose the amplitude depends on the balance between sectors and specific, very highly priced, companies that can dominate an Index.
apad

[melton john] 10/1/2024 12:01

I've added the Nasdaq index. There are some correlations.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[apad] 10/1/2024 11:20

Interesting perspective, MJ.
Am I correct in thinking that this may/mayn't happen under the umbrella of what happens to the US market?
I saw their list of holdings the other day (lost the reference!) and it screamed yoodle.
apad

[melton john] 10/1/2024 11:03

Comparing present chart with a year ago makes me think back at drivers for the share price then vs now. We had a rally starting at the same point which after some profit taking carried on after Christmas to 550p. A big sell then perhaps to crystalise profits before tax year end and then a big rise again prior to ex dividend July 6.
So the decision here is will there be a significant drop before tax-year end this year and will it be worth selling to buy back later. The change in direction of 200 day average makes me think not. Plus reduced capital gains allowance.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[davethehorse] 10/1/2024 08:07

POLR on the slide with the markets looking like they got ahead of themselves on the Santa rally, hopefully a temporary blip creating a buy opportunity

[melton john] 29/12/2023 15:20

"they have a history of having dividend cover of less than 1" not according to Stockopedia figures unless you mean one year:
Last six years cover 1.24___1.63___1.25___1.60___1.06___0.785
Next two years estimated (by six brokers)__0.730___0.777

___________________Net Profit(£)__EPS(p)__DPS(p)__Net Profit(£)__EPS(p)__DPS(p)
Consensus Estimate____32.93m______33.6____46.0____35.15m_________35.7____46.0


Last years total divi payout was £44.5M the net change in cash was £14.2M leaving year end cash of £107M so plenty of reserves to cover earnings shortfall.
Imho the drop in earnings cover is more than already baked in and I don't expect an imminent drop in dividend or share price going so far as to agree with the brokers buy rating.

[tag57] 29/12/2023 12:27

Kaffee- IMO it will depend on whether the management expect a quick bounce back in AUM. I don’t see it myself.
I think they will pay the same divi as last year and put off the decision until next year’s interim.

[kaffee] 29/12/2023 10:22

Masurenguy26 Dec '23 - 08:35 - 577 of 580
0 4 0
I can see no current reason why the 46p dividend would not be maintained.

======================================

Even if EPS for the year comes in below that ? Do they have a history of having dividend cover of less than 1 ?

If they repeat 2nd half in 2023 that they had in 2022, eps for the full year is nearer 41p by my rough calcs (still hungover so forgive the crude maths)

Yes they may go dip below a cover of 1 - but for fund manager is that going to be seen as good stewardship?

All just questions in my mind provoked by the above post. Not me having a dig at the poster.

[davethehorse] 29/12/2023 09:21

Looking good here now....catch up time...;-)

[davethehorse] 28/12/2023 15:11

Has 460p been cracked today..??

[davethehorse] 27/12/2023 09:46

Need to break the resistance at around 460p level, once through a swift move to 500p on the cards, don't forget AuM update 12th Jan...;-)

[masurenguy] 26/12/2023 08:35

I can see no current reason why the 46p dividend would not be maintained.

[11_percent] 26/12/2023 07:51

PJ84.......cheers......will have a look.