Polar Capital Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 14/1/2025 09:18

Fully agree that passives have become a huge momentum trade that will unravel at some point. However, not sure I'd want to own a fund manager when that happens as perhaps more than any other sector they'll get dragged down too.

[diviincomesearch] 14/1/2025 08:05

The tech fund was up over 30% for 2024, and active fund selectors will take profits and look to cheaper areas of the market. So perhaps not a surprise we’ve not seen too much positive momentum there, but certainly much better than the continual 300mn + outflows at the beginning of the year.

Passives bid up the S&P 500 endlessly until they don’t- because of the weight of passives now in markets it becomes almost a momentum strategy, when there’s a sell-off it will become quite violent.

[riverman77] 13/1/2025 20:15

Not a bad update but was hoping not to see a resumption of outflows. Obviously a difficult market for funds in the UK, but if they can't attract inflows when tech stocks are booming I dread to think what would happen if we saw a sell off. I suspect the truth is that the vast majority of inflows are going into passives, which is likely to be an ongoing headwind for the likes of Polar.

[masurenguy] 13/1/2025 08:18

Strong performance, with Q3 AUM up 4.9% following a 4.0% rise during H1. Excellent yield, currently 9.6% at todays price, but closer to 11% for some longer term holders like myself. Furthermore, after the disposal of EQLS, this is now also my 4th largest holding.

[edmonda] 13/1/2025 08:05

"Q3 AUM +5%, forecasts up on performance fee jump" - new research and audio summary here:

AUM grew £1.1bn or 4.9% over Q3 of FY25 (Oct 24 - Dec 24) to £23.8bn. This was on the back of a strong investment performance, contributing +£1.47bn despite a Dec 24 market pullback, and modest outflows of £0.26bn, mostly in Oct 24 when equity funds saw widespread outflows ahead of the UK budget. Net flows were positive over the nine months of FY25-to-date (+£0.21bn), and in calendar-2024, Polar was a standout leader among London-listed peers in attracting and retaining AUM (see page 2). The Forager fund closure reduced AUM by £0.10bn.

Performance fee profits (net of staff allocations) jumped from the previous marked-to-market £0.7m, to £8.3m. As most PF’s crystallise at the end of December, this increase is now secured and not merely a mark-to-market estimate. FY25 forecasts have been upgraded accordingly.

Given market volatility, we maintain our fundamental valuation of 650p/share, and we refer readers to our November 24 note, H1-25 revenue and profits jump on higher AUM, for details. We highlight on page 2 that Polar’s PER of 11.1 is only just above sector median, despite its relative outperformance.

[riverman77] 09/1/2025 18:37

Yes some of the newer strategies haven't really taken off - they launched a smart energy and smart mobility fund fairly recently but these don't seem to have gathered much in the way of inflows.

[diviincomesearch] 09/1/2025 13:51

Some of the factsheets up. Albeit not the technology or healthcare funds.

Melchior continues to bleed- another 50mn euros out the door. £280mn the strategy size now, was over £1Bn. Tough times for European strategies.

Fair to say the last three major team hires haven’t gone well- Robeco hasn’t built to scale in horrible market conditions, same with Dalton and Europe, and the US team hire that all ended in tears. Existing strategies have gone well but the bolt-ons in the last few years have not.

Hopefully Dan Boston’s global small co.s team works out better.

[riverman77] 08/1/2025 09:48

No not a downgrade, likely driven by yesterday's sell off in tech stocks (tech is by far their largest exposure, hence very correlated). However, look at the bigger picture and you see a huge mismatch - since 1 Oct tech is up around 20% (based on the rise in the PCT share price) while POLR is down 9% over the same period. Would expect to see a nice jump when POLR announce their AUM.

[diviincomesearch] 07/1/2025 18:51

Naomi Waistell who was co-manager on the EM stars team which has brought in pick flows has gone to join another investment manager. Jorry Noeddekaer remains the lead.

Interesting that she left-hasn’t been there that long and the fund has brought in a lot of assets. Carmignac fund is a lot smaller in comparison?

[lord gnome] 07/1/2025 18:10

Big whack with the ugly stick today. Downgrade?

[rogerbridge] 07/1/2025 12:39

This looks undervalued and the dividend is not to be sneezed at. One for my ISA.

[riverman77] 02/1/2025 17:00

This has once again lagged the rise in tech stocks - share price actually drifted lower over last 3 months while tech indices up around 15%. We had a similar mismatch in early 24, with POLR initially lagging the rally but then moving up sharply when they announced a rise in their AUM. Can't believe how inefficient markets can be, but I suppose good for private investors to take advantage.

[diviincomesearch] 09/12/2024 18:34

Biotech has big outperformance for the year. Probably £10mn in performance fees alone. Healthcare fund/trust and AI also helping. £20mn plus?

[mister md] 20/11/2024 14:58

For a moment thought it had gone ex-div today, based on the share price move :-(

[martinmc123] 18/11/2024 11:51

4*
Polar Capital Holdings posted a solid set of Interims for the 6 months ended 30 September this morning. Assets under Management (AuM) at 30 September 2024 were up 4% to £22.7bn from 31 March 2024: £21.9bn, and have since edged up further to £23.9bn at 8 November 2024. Net inflows were £472m during the six-month period. Core operating profit was up 21% to £27.3m (30 September 2023: £22.5m). Profit before tax was up 9% to £23.1m...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/POLR/985

[martinmc123] 18/11/2024 11:48

4*
Polar Capital Holdings posted a solid set of Interims for the 6 months ended 30 September this morning. Assets under Management (AuM) at 30 September 2024 were up 4% to £22.7bn from 31 March 2024: £21.9bn, and have since edged up further to £23.9bn at 8 November 2024. Net inflows were £472m during the six-month period. Core operating profit was up 21% to £27.3m (30 September 2023: £22.5m). Profit before tax was up 9% to £23.1m...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/POLR/985

[mister md] 18/11/2024 11:12

Today's shareprice prediction award goes to you sir ...
'Maybe it’ll pop up to 550p'.

[diviincomesearch] 18/11/2024 08:33

Steady as we go. I never know what the share price is going to do as so much of it should be visible from the outside. Maybe it’ll pop up to 550p today given how beaten down the valuation is.

Eaten a £6mn goodwill impairment from Dalton. Sounds reasonable given the fund has just bled out with European equities floundering.

Only interesting data point is the gross/net flows into funds. Tech fund seeing plenty of turnover.

Divi in comfortable shape. Should hopefully get decent performance fees to top up profit. We shall see!

[eve kay] 18/11/2024 07:40

A reassuring set of interim results, and I pleased that I continued to add at the recent low points. A definite hold for me.

[edmonda] 18/11/2024 07:27

"H1-25 revenue and profits jump on higher AUM" - new research from Equity Development

AUM increased £0.8bn (+4%) in H1-25 to £22.7bn on 30 Sep 24. Net flows added +£472m and investment performance +£323m. This was a highly creditable performance relative to peers, with Polar one of only two London-listed asset managers to record positive net flows (page 3). Furthermore, post-interim-results, AUM has increased another 5% to £23.9bn on 8 Nov 24.

Polar’s prospects remain strong, despite current headwinds for active managers which we believe will abate (page 16), and ongoing market uncertainty. It has a range of specialist investment strategies (which it continues to expand e.g. a new International Small Company Strategy), and an enviable longer- and shorter-term investment track record, all of which should generate ongoing demand.

Our AUM, revenue, and profit forecasts move up with the higher-than-forecast current AUM level (other than FY25 statutory profit forecasts which drop on the Dalton impairment). Our fundamental valuation remains 650p/share, 27% above today’s price. With strong margins, balance sheet, and dividend yield we also think Polar should trade at a higher PER than its current 10.7 (page 19).

Link to report:

[masurenguy] 18/11/2024 07:06

Unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2024

"Continued fund performance and our diversification meant that Polar Capital's Assets under Management grew by 4% over the period, from £21.9bn to £22.7bn and given the positive outlook for the business, the first interim dividend per share was maintained at 14.0p." Gavin Rochussen, CEO

Highlights

• Assets under Management (AuM) at 30 September 2024 up 4% to £22.7bn (31 March 2024: £21.9bn) and at 8 November 2024 £23.9bn

• Net inflows of £472m during the period (six months to 30 September 2023: outflows of £581m)

• Core operating profit† up 21% to £27.3m (30 September 2023: £22.5m)

• Profit before tax up 9% to £23.1m (30 September 2023: £21.1m)

• Basic earnings per share up 7% to 17.3p (30 September 2023: 16.2p) and adjusted diluted total earnings per share† up 42% to 24.5p (30 September 2023: 17.2p)

• Interim dividend per ordinary share of 14.0p (January 2024: 14.0p) declared to be paid in January 2025. The dividend payment date is 10 January 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 12 December 2024 and a record date of 13 December 2024.

[mister md] 18/11/2024 07:05

Superb results !

[riverman77] 09/11/2024 08:26

You're right the vast majority of their funds are global, but most of their clients who buy these funds are from the UK. I suspect outflows will continue across the industry due to the various tax changes announced at the budget, and this will continue to be a headwind even if the underlying markets perform well. That said, POLR a lot better placed than many other fund managers.

[spawny100] 08/11/2024 18:31

I think we're talking at cross purposes div. I meant I've reduced my exposure to UK plc as am sure many others are doing.