Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[noujay] 14/2/2018 12:35

The amount of cash this has obviously generates to this date alone leads to a significantly revised estimate for the year which should add plenty of capital growth. They love specials too so I'm struggling to find too many negatives at the moment!

[hatfullofsky] 14/2/2018 12:34

No that was explained :
ARPU lower due to dilution from significant customer recruitment in Q4 2017;
AUAC lower due to efficient and successful marketing strategy and popularity of our cryptocurrency CFDs offering which attracted new customers mainly in Q4 2017
New customers up 572% in Q4 / Active Customers up 212%

Profit taking with ESMA in mind. ESMA rulings won't come into effect until 2019 so we'll have another year of profits but that wont matter, share price will tank on new ratios.

[bulltradept] 14/2/2018 12:29

Ah missed that, cheers will take another look.

[martinthebrave] 14/2/2018 12:22

SP probably dipping due to Average Revenue Per Customer being down 34%?

[hatfullofsky] 14/2/2018 12:20

The only thing holding this back is ESMA.

Nice spike above 1300 but triggered AT selling, I was hoping the divi would underpin sp, we may hit some support at 1200.

If the stars align I would like 1500 leading up to the ex-divi date and ESMA not to announce until March.

[noujay] 14/2/2018 12:08

This one sure is volatile but I'm still digesting the dividend on top of the sheer growth of the model. Have to think this will pick up again over the next few days

[bulltradept] 14/2/2018 12:02

Big volume and the price slides, mmmmm.

Did think the gap wouldn't close quite so quickly as it has, still maybe this pm it will start to rise again.

Edit: The only thing I can think of is Mr Market knew the results would be stellar, hence the muted rise now (+1.7%)

[martinthebrave] 14/2/2018 11:37

Just bought in here. Broker upgrade today - Liberum Capital retaining their Buy recommendation & raising Target share price from 1232p to 1507p.

[shanklin] 14/2/2018 11:13

Is ESMA the only potential blot on the landscape here and what is the worst case impact of that please? What now is the timescale for the news on this given their unexpected announcement a month or two back?

Having screwed up my timing on PLUS on multiple occasions I really don't want to scare myself out of it again.

Thank you, Martin

[noujay] 14/2/2018 10:53

Agree John, to say that 2018 going to be "significantly ahead of market expectations" in the third week of February is extraordinary really.

[daniel levi bmd] 14/2/2018 10:51

FYI

On-Line Blockchain PLC News on the way? The Blockchain Rollercoaster. Fasten Your Belts..


Dan
x

[sailing john] 14/2/2018 10:49

Q1 will answer that question in April. It will obviously be stunning given crypto sell off and volatility in major currencies and commodities. If PLUS can say significantly ahead for the whole of 2018 based on 6 weeks trading that says it all really. Mr M not quite digested the evidence yet!
And they don't hold profit they return it all to shareholders asap! 100% of PAT this year!

[nurdin] 14/2/2018 10:39

Yes,the question is will they be significantly ahead of 2017 results? I see no reason why not.

[shanklin] 14/2/2018 10:03

It will be interesting to see the extent of the first upgrade for the current year. I presume the share price rise has been mitigated by the fact that currently forecasts are a small decrease in EPS from today's $1.75. So "significantly ahead" only ups that number by 10%; I presume the increase will be far greater in practice

[noujay] 14/2/2018 09:53

Just took my first batch. The dividend alone is compelling but the growth trajectory has really been astonishing. Clearly they are exceptional are SEO/marketing to new customers and they seem to be slicker than competitors so looking for plenty more out of this share price Will read all comments here with interest.

[nurdin] 14/2/2018 09:30

Never thought it would pull back from £13 pound this much.Still,gives a decent chance to add

[chucko1] 14/2/2018 09:11

The average broker underestimate has been 37% since this stock began coverage. Poorly understood and still so. I suppose to balance that, they see “event risk”in a stock like this, so are always cautious. The thing is, the ESMA event risk is most likely a positive! But let’s not complain, it means that you have always been able to buy a very cheap dividend stream.

[philba] 14/2/2018 09:10

Well only 100% out with my 50p dividend prediction!!

I wonder what it would take to rate this growth stock on a PE that’s on a par with its competition. They continue to deliver are relaxed about regulation continue to invest in R&D and are broadening their reach through new licences.

To me the other risks are :-

Users moving out as quickly as they arrived, no evidence of this and only 15% are crypto + surely the same risk applies to competitors.
Lack of hedging, most revenue gained through spreads and overnight charges, worst day -£4m best +£10m suggest any bad runs are short lived.

Other than broker laziness and suspicions about Israeli organisations, can any else come up with a reason as to why this wouldn’t trade closer to 15 pe and an £18 share price.

[hatfullofsky] 14/2/2018 08:52

Significant

[sailing john] 14/2/2018 08:38

Re 2018 I have
Rev $650m
PAT $330m
PE 6.2 at £13
Yield 9.6%-16% at £13
Significantly ahead of consensus as PLUS have already said!
No doubt brokers will spend the whole year playing catch up! Again!
GL - SJ

[nfs] 14/2/2018 08:13

Maybe £14 by end of today, rather than my 13 estimation

[chucko1] 14/2/2018 08:08

It’s not this years earnings that interest me so much, but the likely 2019 earnings with the likely increse in users from the Singapore license. You might be looking at a p/e of 5 at 1200p rather than 9.5. That being so, a bull on PLUS would look at a far higher price, perhaps north of 2000p.

[nfs] 14/2/2018 08:06

Yes final and special about £1

[sailing john] 14/2/2018 08:06

Results better than I expected
But as expected they are already significantly ahead for 2018!
Glad they are paying 100%PAT as divi and have given up chasing price to make buybacks
GL - SJ

[fenners66] 14/2/2018 08:05

Dividend of about £1 to come?