Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 26/1/2017 09:21

CMCX Q3 TS today - Increased active clients but ARPU down by same amount
Couldn't give any view on future - far less positive than IGG
Off 7% at the open now recovered a little
PLUS strongest today - back to 400 after taking a bit of a beating over the past two days

Just been looking at divis for the past two years and although they only state that they will pay 60% of earnings as Divis, last year they returned all profit after tax (and in 2014 90% of PAT) for the year via divis and specials
I think they might do the same again to show confidence resulting in a final divi inc special of 57c (24.6c final and 32c special) or 45p based on my forecast PAT (dyor)
I think that would get the market excited as over 10% of MC giving an annual historic yield at current share price of over 15%
Hopefully outlook statement a little more like IGG than CMCX
We will find out on 7th Feb
SJ

[rackers1] 26/1/2017 08:44

not as much as what you lost on NLG muppet chops

[lydnem] 25/1/2017 18:16

liquidkid. How much have you lost on this one numb nuts?

I have been a bear will the way down from 750. Go and get yourself an education or are you angling for me to teach you?. If you are ...dont....there has to be a base intelligence first, and you dont have it

[freddie ferret] 25/1/2017 17:42

Some of the people early into bitcoin did mine a few cheap. The majority? No.

[liquidkid] 25/1/2017 16:53

ANY position in Bitcoin is a pure gamble long or short.
There is nothing to suggest Bitcoin has anything to do with financial assets.
At best it is a ponzi scheme where the originators started with the bulk of the supply. Speculation on Bitcoin will be unpardonably profitless. Bitcoin is uninvestible.

The Irony is that the company PLUS500 was the first purveyor of trading in the UK of BitCoin. (Albeit as CFDs). Now IG are in on the game in a BIG way.
Problem is that ALL UK trading in Bitcoin is bucket, no betting shops taking punters money by CFD. NO ONE is taking proprietary positions in Bitcoin. They are not hedging the risk. YOU WILL LOSE. THEY NEED YOU TO LOSE.

Almost ALL 'physical' bitcoin trading is done in China, as much as 99% of all volume by some estimates.


China announced it had begun investigating bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai on suspicion of market manipulation, money laundering, unauthorized financing, and other issues. Regulation there prohibits financial firms from BTC.

etoro's Mati Greedspam say that bitcoin volumes are primarily coming from UK, (closely followed by DEM=X)


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Bitcoin BTC 1% Overnight fee Sell -0.001 Buy -0.072

Off to trade Weather Futures on Robo advice now bye. See ya losers later from my Ferrari

Important Message:
TheFCA has determined that retail investors are nothing but to be treated as imbecile children and not allowed no more to play with CFD'ly toys.
Remember the £1.5 billion you lost, TheFCA. £1.5 billion. This is on TheFCA's head. £1.5 billion. Never Forget.

[lydnem] 25/1/2017 12:35

Ok, opinions differ, but that is what makes a market

As a customer, I think it is very relevant if the broker is wanting me to lose, or not bothered if I win or lose. Especially when they make their own prices, as many of the complaints on the internet have described

[lydnem] 25/1/2017 11:07

IG dont take a position against their client, PLUS do

IG make lots of small profits on deals, PLUS rely on the trader losing, which they often so

Two totally different business models

One other important note. The Directors of IG are buying, the directors of PLUS are dumping.

[sailing john] 25/1/2017 09:55

Lyd - you keep saying that and that IG = Jag and PLUS = Skoda

Perhaps you would like to share a few bullet point headlines as to why - and why in your view IG warrants a PE double that of PLUS

[lydnem] 25/1/2017 09:17

but a comparison to IG is wrong!

[sailing john] 24/1/2017 11:01

Added again - IGG customer growth and Revenue strong - BUT costs up
Outlook obviously key and I don't perceive that things as gloomy as MR M predicts
PLUS advantage is simple - they are half the price!
GL - SJ

[lydnem] 24/1/2017 10:44

the two are not comparable

IG is the rolls royce and works on a different model

[danboris2] 24/1/2017 07:12

IGG results are strong, PLUS should advance strongly on the back of this I believe

[sailing john] 23/1/2017 11:26

Not surprised at Odey's short - moves a small percentage of their investment to a bet on the PE anomaly between the big 3 (in the UK)
PLUS trades at a PE roughly half that of IGG and CMCX both before and after the recent Regulatory shock - and over correction imo. They all moved by exactly the same percentage! so maintaining the PE differential - see chart below
I think they will all move up a little tomorrow on IGG 1H which are in line and I expect an outlook comfort statement that will calm nerves. Hopefully PLUS will close the PE gap a little post their FY next month which again should be in line but with an outlook perhaps a little less positive than IGG but more than priced in on the basis of the 2:1 PE differential. (I suppose I should say that positive means positive relative to current market view not to position pre Reg changes)
I added a few more on the sub 400 dipette last Friday. Currently my largest position (other than cash! at 50%+ having recently received take out payments for my two largest positions AVS and LSIC - and with LVD soon to come but still in play!)

[lydnem] 23/1/2017 09:36

Yes, they get everything wrong! Its a buy signal for IG!

[jim digriz] 23/1/2017 08:08

Apologies if old news - browsing shorttracker I see that our key shareholder Odey Asset Management LLP also have a 1.2% short on IG Group which they started to build in November. Presumably that is some hedging of the CFD industry as a whole. Interesting though.

[sailing john] 19/1/2017 09:20

Good to see early results this year (7th Feb) - previous years 17th-25th Feb

[lampran] 19/1/2017 08:20

Annybody know why plus keeps opening +3/4% then falling straight down afterwards?

[lampran] 13/1/2017 12:26

thanks for your thoughts SJ

[sailing john] 13/1/2017 11:40

Re Plus's PE is modest you are correct especially vs peers and that's the whole point. It is currently on a historic PE of about 6 vs roughly double that for IGG and CMCX. Whilst some may argue that IGG have advantages - personally I think PLUS has some advantages over IGG who have been slow to react to tech changes and the need to cap potential losses for retail customers.

Going forwards on a level playing field for the Regulated players PLUS should be able to compete well and has a good global presence and so can concentrate marketing spend where opportunities greatest. There will always be unregulated players and so the Regulators will be key to keeping their market share minimal vs the larger Regulated participants.

I'm not wedded to PLUS and happy to trade in and out depending on how things play out. That said I think fair value based on my cautious Rev forecast for 2017 is 530 but I'm expecting this to increase (perhaps as high as 700) as the year progresses and I am able to update my model with less cautious forecasts.
SJ

[lampran] 13/1/2017 11:01

Well done! I caught a falling knife at 510, (day before FCA announcement..) but increased at the mid 300s. I'm anticipating a watered down FCA ruling, and even at 700 Plus's P/E was modest, so I just can't understand such a low valuation.

Time will tell..

[sailing john] 13/1/2017 09:41

Lampran - because I'm cautious! and my forecast represents what I think is the worst case scenario. - but still undervalued even if they only do $250m. I will update my model as the year progresses.
I have assumed Regulatory action in Europe will have some effect - though might be minimal or zero for Plus but we don't know so I forecast at the bottom end!
btw - I now have a bigger position than previously (in shares but not value yet!)
I have traded in and out several times since they floated and fortunately avoided the two big shocks!
SJ

[stevenlondon3] 13/1/2017 07:54

In the RNS response to the FCA on the 6 December Plus said "A further announcement will be made in due course in conjunction with a year end trading update." Any info would be helpful.

[sailing john] 12/1/2017 18:48

Unlikely - they are pretty quick with FY results - mid to late Feb in past years.
SJ

I have a pretty robust and well tested model for PLUS and based on 1H actual and Q3 TS and low volatility for Q4 I have the following numbers.
Also my best guess for 2017 but obviously it is at present no more than a personal estimate

PLUS Model SJ
$m   2016   2017
Rev   306   250
PAT    92   74
PE    6.1   7.6   (at 400p)
Yield 9.8%  7.9%  (at 400p)
dyor!