Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 21/12/2016 10:30

He received an encomium, so probably not.

[essentialinvestor] 21/12/2016 09:38

Is the recent director departure in any way significant?, it seemed quite sudden.

[rcturner2] 21/12/2016 07:09

I doubled up on this yesterday.

[garycook] 20/12/2016 13:14

If Blackrock has topped up.Then they know its good value.

[stun12] 16/12/2016 16:20

Thanks, hiddendepths, I knew we were below the pre-rights price was wasn't sure how much. I even managed to pick up an odd amount to get me back to a round number (458 shares) at under £7 which was well over a 7% yield based on the estimated 50p divi.

[edmundshaw] 16/12/2016 13:50

hiddendepths, on the button.

[garycook] 16/12/2016 10:10

hiddendepths.I believe you are totally correct.

[hiddendepths] 16/12/2016 10:03

Just looking at this stock.

FWIW The share price has been weak because of the dilution effect of the rights issue, sometimes known as the bonus element of the rights.

This is how to get the theoretical ex rights price.

Before the rights was announced, holders had 12 shares (or a multiple thereof!)valued at 880p/share = £105.60

They receive 7 more shares at the 508p each = £35.56

So the new holding is 19 shares worth 105.60 + 35.56 =141.16

This is equivalent to 743p per share, known as the theoretical ex rights price and is the equivalent of the old 880p price.

So the shares are down about 3%, probably due to some insitutions reducing their weightings back to where they were before taking the extra shares. This is a normal and temporary overhang and should be corrected in due course.

[orinocor] 13/12/2016 16:00

up 6p
on fire


Phoenix Grp Hldgs
Regulatory Consent - Abbey Life Acquisition
RNS Number : 7468R
Phoenix Group Holdings
13 December 2016



REGULATORY APPROVAL - ABBEY LIFE ACQUISITION



Phoenix Group Holdings

13 December 2016


Phoenix Group Holdings announces that the Prudential Regulation Authority has consented to the acquisition of Abbey Life Assurance Company Limited

[rl34870] 08/12/2016 09:46

This share has been left behind in the recent rerating of financial stocks. Any reasons?

[rcturner2] 06/12/2016 10:11

A brief mention of Phoenix in the IC, in an article about rights issues:

"Phoenix Group's recent decision to buy Abbey Life for £935m looks to be a much shrewder move. After much media speculation, the life insurance fund specialist finally convinced Deutsche Bank to cede its ownership for 23 per cent below the traditional measure of the book's value. Deutsche's perilous financial situation made it an eager seller, leaving Phoenix, and those who backed the £735m rights issue, with a potential bargain.

Abbey Life's unit-linked vehicles require less capital than guaranteed products such as annuities, so there's a chance it will lift Phoenix's Solvency II ratio. Marcus Barnard at Numis reckons the acquisition could boost future cash flows by £1.6bn, and ensure that the extremely attractive dividend continues to grow. Based on these estimates, the shares, which have barely moved since the agreement was first announced, are worth picking up."

[orinocor] 01/12/2016 11:26

Weakness here may just be general market jitters due to the Italian referendum this week-end.

[speedsgh] 01/12/2016 09:07

Brief written interview (2 pages) with Phoenix Life's Andy Moss...

Firing Line: Phoenix Life's Andy Moss -

[rcturner2] 01/12/2016 07:32

Anything under 750p is a bargain in my opinion.

[jonwig] 01/12/2016 06:51

Regarding the share price, MCEV is sensitive to interest rate increases/swap rates. There's reference to this in the annual reports and we discussed it here, though not recently. The market tends to get jitters from time to time about this sort of thing.

PHNX has made two decent acquisitions this year. Chesnara has just bought L&G's Dutch life business at a very big discount. I think Solvency II is causing big companies to dispose of non-core operations at a discount, benefiting both parties. The only constraints will be the appetite of shareholders for more fundraising and the time and effort in integrating new operations. I imagine there won't be more for a while.

[garycook] 01/12/2016 04:00

Just think long term,and a possible 25% upside,and a juicy 7% Dividend yield,if you buy now around 710p

[rcturner2] 30/11/2016 18:36

A large increase in the number of shares will have some effect and may drag on the price for a while.

[orinocor] 30/11/2016 18:22

So can anyone explain the continuing weakness in the share price? That's quite a share price drop the last couple of weeks.

[jonwig] 30/11/2016 17:36

Longevity swap: 2014 AR, p.11:


We completed a transaction to re-balance exposure to longevity risk from the PGL Pension Scheme. This involved Phoenix Life Limited de-risking certain with-profit funds (via the closure of a legacy longevity indemnity agreement with a Group holding company) and
entering into a longevity swap insurance (covering approximately £900 million of PGL
Pension Scheme liabilities) which was simultaneously reinsured on a 50% quota share
basis. The overall impact of the transaction on the Group MCEV was a gain of £91 million.

Surrender and transfer penalties. Addressed as a risk in the latest prospectus. Revision of pension freedom policies by new chancellor should (imo) limit the scope for these.

As danger said (post #2002) your arguments were largely content-free.

[dangersimpson2] 30/11/2016 16:54

That's a bit of a vague analysis without any figures or back up info.

I personally doubt that these factors will have much of an impact - certainly compared to the management actions of removing admin costs and freeing reg cap from the combined businesses. AXA & Abbey Life transactions alone should generate £0.8b by 2020 and £1.3 from 2021 onwards. I would imagine these figures would dwarf the factors you are concerned about.

[andrewbaker] 30/11/2016 16:14

I had this on my watch list, but am removing it now, because whilst it's possible to make more money by managing closed life and pension funds, because there are no new business costs, and administrative costs, both investment and management, will be less; there are other factors in play now that will affect the profits. Firstly, Phoenix took out a longevity swap in 2014 on its own company defined benefits pension scheme, which involves it in making annual payments to cover the longevity risk of its own pensioners, and these payments increase costs: and also, the government is passing legislation to prevent the large early surrender and transfer penalties on pensions, which penalties are particularly high on the old pension contracts that Phoenix are and will be managing. The loss of this not insignificant revenue - which is not spoken about or advertised for obvious reasons - will significantly affect the company's future profits.

In short, managing closed arrangements is cheaper, but the extra costs and lower profits of the above items will eat into these potentially higher returns. If you've got a profit from holding PHNX, I suggest you take it now before the share price falls back even further.

[rl34870] 27/11/2016 17:38

Edmundshaw - re the current price of 748p being equivalent to 888p old money. I held 2285 shares pre rights purchased at 875p costing £20k. I let my rights lapse and received a payment of £2538. Based on your figures I should be breaking even at around 735p but find at this price I am around £500 down. Is that correct?