Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 25/2/2015 14:13

Speedsgh,

Hardly a bear view, looks like someone who has done very well deciding to book profits.

They make some odd points. The "buried" investor day slides happen to be the first item on the results and presentations page!

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/investor-relations/results-and-presentations/2014.aspx

[chizgreen68] 25/2/2015 13:50

Reminded of the phrase 'climb a wall of worry'

[sogoesit] 25/2/2015 13:48

Well, we can be sure that government is there to make us poorer, if not completely impoverish us...
It's just a matter of how and when.

[envirovision] 25/2/2015 13:41

Quite so, also a worry in the back of my mind which seems never to go away.

The large gar's here must surely be a ticking time bomb.

How long before the regulator turns its attentions to this problem. Whilst there may well be an almost infinite way of burying this problem by clever accounting, I cannot believe for one moment there is sufficient cover for these in the real world.

[speedsgh] 25/2/2015 13:31

Someone else's view from the bear side. Worth evaluating both sides of the argument imo.

Phoenix: Run Run Run -

[scburbs] 25/2/2015 13:22

With Germany today issuing 5 year debt at a negative yield and the Irish 10 year below 1% I think the yield gap offered by PHNX shares is perhaps increasing even despite recent strong share price performance.

It is getting harder and harder and find relatively safe yield anywhere near PHNX and with the massive degearing they have done perhaps not being fully reflected meaning that the yield gap still looks too high.

[mister md] 25/2/2015 12:17

wow the dividend yield will 'only' seem "great" instead of "excellent" if the shareprice continues on up like this ... ;)

[mike740] 25/2/2015 09:16

PHNX Phoenix group new yearly and 10 year high , just keeps on going higher. P/E 15.5 plenty of room for more upside.

[jonwig] 25/2/2015 08:56

RCT, I think the key word is "risk-adjusted". If you look at the link below, it explains how Canaccord WM runs model portfolios based on asset allocation and low volatility. Their BUY recommendation should be seen in this light, and if I were a client, I would probably understand why I should buy PHNX with a target equal to the current share price and sell - say - RSL, whilst maintaining my exposure to the Life sector.



In other words, broker recommendations are not a consistent metric; and I've always found broker notes to be very useful, if only as starting points for my own research. I've legitimate access to a few, and back-door access to some more. Simply rubbishing them isn't good enough.

[stevenrevell] 25/2/2015 08:55

Is john wing cumin up on the ride w us or has he sold

[chizgreen68] 25/2/2015 08:26

Breaking out nicely

[rcturner2] 24/2/2015 09:52

jonwig, I take your point, but none of that explains how a share at 849p could have a target of 850p. If "buy" means a 10% return for example, then the target price should be much higher.

[jonwig] 24/2/2015 09:42

No, because some firms don't go into detail on the individual notes, you need to go to the (secure part of) the website for the information.

So if you look at the recommendations on - say - Brokerviews the entries aren't really comparable.

[skinny] 24/2/2015 09:38

Do you have a 'definitive list' of such "recommendations" and true meanings :-)

[jonwig] 24/2/2015 09:31

Analyst reports are difficult to get hold of by PIs. I think if some posters here had read a few, they would see that there's quite a bit more to them than merits the obvious jibe.

The main point is that "BUY" can mean different things to different analysts. In the case of Cannacord (the evil one here), BUY means "The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted total returns of over 10% during the next 12 months."
I don't know what Cannacord's dividend forecast is. If it's 55p that's most of the 10%. And what do they mean by "risk-adjusted"? Most likely performance against the sector.

In the case of Brewin-Dolphin, "BUY" means simply "outperform other researched companies in its sector".

For Charles Stanley, it's "at least 20% total return over next year".

And so it goes.

[rcturner2] 24/2/2015 08:32

These analysts are idiots. Buy at 849.25p for a price target of 850p??? WTF?

[envirovision] 24/2/2015 08:27

If its 850 already and they are saying the target is 850 then why are they not saying hold!

[mike740] 24/2/2015 08:21

24 Feb 15 Phoenix Group... Canaccord Genuity Buy 849.25 850.00 850.00 Reiterates

[jonwig] 24/2/2015 08:00

See 2013 AR p194 for ways in which they've mitigated some effects of GARs via derivative protection against reducing interest rates, though not increased longevity.
2014 saw even lower rates, so there might be further effect on profits and capital surplus.

[envirovision] 23/2/2015 23:29

Quite a high proportion of policies seem to have attached GAR's here, however at least they were transparent, Aviva and a few others declined to comment:

Q1: How many GAR policies do you now have on your books?

A: At the end of 2011 there were 2.1 million pension policies in force across the Group of which 460,000 contained valuable pension guarantees.

(The vast majority of GARs were set in the 1970s and early 1980s and are broadly consistent across Phoenix, e.g. a lump sum of £9 secures a pension of £1pa for a male at age 65, giving an annuity rate of 11.1 per cent, broadly double that available in the open market today)

[jonwig] 23/2/2015 12:45

FT: "Sir Howard Davies set to be appointed RBS chairman"

I'd have thought that was pretty full-time in itself, let alone our Chairman and chairing the London Airports Commission?

Another turn of the revolving chairs.

[envirovision] 17/2/2015 14:51

Its still over 6.3% still one of the most safe/reliable too.

Try finding a bond paying that these days without the risk!

[jonwig] 17/2/2015 14:43

Regarding the dividend, didn't we discuss this some time ago (we should have done), as this is from the H1 statement (August 2014):

The underlying strength of the business model and the stable and predictable long-term cash generation has enabled us to declare a 2014 interim dividend of 26.7p per share, in line with the 2013 interim dividend. Given the run-off nature of the group's business, the Board believes it is prudent to maintain a stable, sustainable dividend whilst the Group builds its financial flexibility to execute its growth strategy and will keep the dividend under review.

And, if they are in the business of consolidation, it would be prudent to maintain, not increase.

So ... don't expect an increase any time soon!

[sogoesit] 17/2/2015 11:57

Yes, an increased dividend would be exciting but, having topped-up in recent days at 830/835 I am still happy.
Looks like break-out is confirmed.

[dangersimpson2] 17/2/2015 11:56

Brokers are always behind the times on the way up and the way down. In general they don't like to step too far away from the consensus or too far from the current share price in case they get it wrong. It's one of the reasons momentum investing continues to work despite being very well known. What you have to remember though is that by momentum investing you are taking advantage of under-reaction to changes in fundamentals. If you have positive share price momentum but declining fundamentals you eventually get rapid reversals (like AO World last week.) With PHNX we have positive share price momentum and mildly positive (or at least neutral) fundamentals so reversals shouldn't be too much of a concern. Should positive momentum continue I would expect the brokers targets to be updated to reflect the new SP!