Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 13/3/2020 09:41

There is, IMHO, almost no point in worrying about the details of any individual stock whilst the entire market is being struck by an earthquake.

[jonwig] 13/3/2020 07:21

IC updates with 'buy' written at 684p:

... a long-term insurer whose credit was re-affirmed at A+ with a positive outlook by the ratings agency Fitch. With the ReAssure deal on track, we see this is a steady long-term income play. Buy.

[frazboy] 12/3/2020 13:44

RCT - a buy at 550p is starting to look like an act of extreme bravery rather than cowardice

[schofip] 12/3/2020 12:22

Looks like first company (carnival) in US has suspended its shares and this may spread to other companies on both sides of the pond.

[schofip] 12/3/2020 11:48

The true facts matter not at this time,perception is everything.

[schofip] 12/3/2020 11:46

Was watching sqwauk on the street and Mohamed Arian a well respected analyst said he thought that the US market would fall 30% before stabilising. After that it depends wether we enter a recession or a bear market after that. Phnx is currently down 26% from its high so if you believe Mohamed there could still be a bit to go.

[cwa1] 12/3/2020 11:46

LOL, I'm an unmitigated fool and topped up a little at 593'ish-may the good Lord have mercy 'pon our souls :-)

[rcturner2] 12/3/2020 11:26

Coward here, I am waiting for sub 550p.

[porsche1945] 12/3/2020 11:03

I piled into these and L and G. 50k of each, I dont know where the bottom is but I will take an 8 per cent yield thanks, never thought I would be able to get back into these at this price, Covid completely overblown, juiced by social media that was not so prevalent during sars, swine flu etc, this will pass, bounce likely huge.

[my retirement fund] 12/3/2020 10:25

Couldn't help myself. Had to add more funds to my trading account and snaffel another parcel load of these. Pointless trying to time the bottom of this Covid. The market is irrational. It irrationally ignored the main outbreak in China and now its irrationally behaving as though we are all finished for good.

[riverman77] 12/3/2020 09:57

Importantly PHNX is very resilient to market shocks. There is a slide in the last results showing their very low sensitivity to things such as lower rates, wider credit spreads and lower equity markets. PHNX should be holding up well here, but markets clearly not efficient in times like this. Great buying opportunity. Now an 8% yield which is more than twice covered by free cashflow.

[skinny] 12/3/2020 09:56

Makes my post 3635 look a bit daft now - a whole 27 days ago!

[frazboy] 12/3/2020 09:52

bought below £6. Thank you Mr Market. Notably down 25% from the peak, about the same performance as the FTSE since the onset of you-know-what. Beta of 1. Does the market care that this is a well run, cash generating, dividend paying share for the long term? No.

[rcturner2] 12/3/2020 09:03

My Retirement Fund10 Mar '20 - 10:28 - 3715 of 3721
0 1 0
Never say never but I think £6 is highly unlikely.

[fredfishcake] 12/3/2020 08:58

Got to laugh about the posts from two days ago - "predictions are difficult especially about the future"!

However, I sympathize with the underlying thought process - callous as it sounds, more older people dying early presumably benefits PHNX, which just shows that this is a general panic potentially opening up opportunities....

[rcturner2] 12/3/2020 08:38

Most stocks are going to hit multi year lows.

[actybod] 12/3/2020 08:13

Just hit it!

[rcturner2] 12/3/2020 07:47

This has always been a very well run company and I have bought and sold this at least 3 times over many years. For such a relatively stable business, the share price moves around a lot.

To be honest I think there is a small (getting bigger) chance this will go to 600p.

[jonwig] 12/3/2020 07:00

Interesting!

"...A 10% decrease in equity prices, with all other variables held constant, would result in an increase in profits"
And in the next sentence, a symmetric statement about increase in equity prices.

A few lines later they explain: "The sensitivity to changes in equity prices is primarily driven by the Group's equity hedging arrangements over the value of future management charges that are linked to asset values."

Notable that a decrease in property prices leads to a decrease in profits and vice-versa, as you'd expect.

[stemis] 11/3/2020 22:04

A few bits from the results which I dug out mainly for myself but may be of interest to others

A decrease of 1% in interest rates, with all other variables held constant, would result in an increase in profits after tax in respect of a full financial year, and in equity, of £233 million (2018: £211 million).

A 10% decrease in equity prices, with all other variables held constant, would result in an increase in profits after tax in respect of a full financial year, and in equity, of £254 million (2018: £202 million).

A 100bps widening of credit spreads, with all other variables held constant and no change in assumed expected defaults, would result in a decrease in the profit after tax in respect of a full financial year, and in equity, of £70 million (2018: £108 million).

So overall, it looks like the turmoil in the market is good news for Phoenix. I must admit, that's not what I expected...

[my retirement fund] 10/3/2020 10:28

Never say never but I think £6 is highly unlikely.

[minerve 2] 10/3/2020 10:25

I'm not one for fortune telling but if I was to hazard a guess I would say no. Not for a while at least, a while being 18 months or so.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 07:22

Does anyone think that this will go below 600p again?

[eeza] 09/3/2020 19:03

Anyone found the XD date?

Found it, on website - Financial calendar - provisional dates.
XD 2 April; Pay 19 May