Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 17/1/2012 11:45

In the telegraph today...

[zcaprd7] 16/1/2012 12:08

Must be serious?

16 January 2012

Phoenix Group Holdings announces continuing discussions with CVC

Phoenix Group Holdings, the UK's largest specialist closed life fund consolidator, announces that it is still in discussions with CVC Capital Partners ("CVC") regarding a potential offer for the Company.

This announcement is not an announcement of a firm intention by CVC to make an offer and there can be no certainty that these discussions will lead to an offer being made, nor as to the terms on which any offer will be made.

Phoenix will provide a further update as and when appropriate, but no later than 28 days from the date of this announcement.

[zcaprd7] 03/1/2012 14:51

I thought clearing their short term debt was hanging over the shares? Still, pretty good place to park cash, no?

[hugepants] 28/12/2011 09:16

picked up a few this morning

[jeff h] 24/12/2011 12:40

Sorry you're right jonwig - I meant to say "considering to accept"

The board should have just rejected it as being too low to being able to put to shareholders.

[jonwig] 23/12/2011 17:32

What have the PHNX board "accepted"?

They are duty bound to consider any genuine offer, low-ball or not. They can open the books or not, they can recommend, but it's up to shareholders to accept or not.

That said, I'm amazed, too, that the share price isn't showing a bit more vim.

[jeff h] 23/12/2011 15:19

Yes all a bit strange topvest....as you say why accept a low bid when the
cash is rolling in and a high div is being earned with the prospect of higher divs once the debt is paid down further.

Incidentally what do you think about the FD off to work for Guardian?...who just happen to be owned by CVC

[topvest] 23/12/2011 14:11

Is it just me, or can anyone else work out why the share price is so low and why they are even considering a CVC offer (initial offer £5.80 I saw reported)? This is massively below book value (about £12 I believe) and the company has generated £800m of cash this year with an 8% dividend yield. Seems a duff deal for shareholders in my view!

[scburbs] 08/12/2011 12:20

Jonwig,

The IGNIS operating profit in FY 2010 was £46m, in first half 2011 £18m. A valuation of £400m looks about right to me, but as you say it is difficult to separate that value as a standalone manager.

[jonwig] 08/12/2011 11:53

Skyship - thanks, I missed that article. But I'd see it as roughly neutral from a shareholder point of view.

'Compliance' is a headache, and damn expensive if you get it wrong. That's what Ignis will mean by 'cutting operational risk'.

[skyship] 08/12/2011 11:24

Scurbs/Jonwig - Am I missing something here. Has there been an announcement somewhere to cause the fall today?

So far, this is all I've picked up; but still don't understand why the fall...

Does it make us any less attractive to a prospective bidder?

[jonwig] 08/12/2011 10:31

scburbs - certainly my 2% applied to Ignis must be wrong, but also, I'd be inclined to value it at more than 1x PBT.

Maybe my flaw lies in trying to value Ignis as a standalone asset manager, when its fortunes are tied up with the life group.

[scburbs] 08/12/2011 10:23

Jonwig,

The present value of the IGNIS profit stream is £0.4bn (its in the presentations). I would view that as the best available estimate of value.

[jonwig] 08/12/2011 09:34

I've never come across a figure for valuing asset managers according to their AUM. But a note by Equity Development about another company quotes a 'rule of thumb' of 2% of AUM plus surplus cash.

Ignis had £67.2bn AUM at 30 June. Assuming zero surplus cash (and zero debt) that would be a valuation of £1.3bn for Ignis alone (compare £930m for PHNX). Now it may be that a part of PHNX's debt pile can be attributed to Ignis - I haven't looked and don't know whether it would be reported anyway.

[zcaprd7] 02/12/2011 11:43

Little bit of rsistance here I guess, but a nice recovery...

[fenners66] 29/11/2011 11:46

Missed that one!

[liquidkid] 29/11/2011 11:34

29/11/11
Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell
10:21 559.5 35 AT 551.0 559.5 Buy 15,757 12,444

10:25 570.0 581 AT 551.0 570.0 Buy 16,338 12,444

10:26 559.0 771 AT 559.0 566.5 Sell 16,338 13,215

[fenners66] 29/11/2011 11:11

Can't see any trades going through at that price via trades section -another exchange perhaps or maybe the chart is in error.

[fenners66] 29/11/2011 11:09

Fat finger spike ?

[jonwig] 21/11/2011 12:52

There's a fairly lengthy coverage in FT Markets Live this morning.

They make the valid point that PHNX, being registered in the Cayman Islands, isn't covered by Takeover Panel rules - in other words RSL could come back again and again.

They also say (and here I can't comment) that private equity (viz. CVC) is an unlikely fit for a company such as PHNX.

Their main point explaining PHNX's low valuation is that big debt repayments are due in the next 3-5 years and that re-financing on attractive terms might prove difficult.

Now PHNX have repeatedly said that they view their debt and re-financing as no problem. It may well be that the events of the past few months have changed that - I hope they address this further in March. At least they are ahead of schedule with debt reduction: "Achieved early delivery of target for sub-50% gearing level by end of 2011".

[liquidkid] 21/11/2011 10:29

Ahoy there boss RSL on a direct course looking to take us over.
ok hoist the colours we're in play.
Oh they bearing away, there must be someone else with some money around.
Look in distance - its CVC - they bought something this year - turn about.
Not too sure they're headed our direction Capn.
... ship floats about directionlessly in the murky waters of the Ocean of Finance

[fenners66] 21/11/2011 09:55

Might end up with my "long term buy" from last week becoming shorter than anticipated!
I knew there seemed to be value here.

[envirovision] 21/11/2011 07:08

So CVC still in talks.

[liquidkid] 20/11/2011 22:53

Phoenix shouldn't have even answered the phone to the clowns at Resolution unless they had tabled the 700p offer to the market during market hours. Lets make a Resolution to buy things; We're buying stuff, no we're not, yes we are, we want to buy you, oh, no we don't.

[zcaprd7] 20/11/2011 20:27

Hmm, must be cheap if PE are sniffing around, but you're right, I'd prefer a trade buyer with better "synergies"...