Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 20/11/2011 19:55

I wouldn't be happy with £7. I know MCEV valuations have to be taken with a pinch of salt but £7 is still a significant discount.

Given the cashflow phoenix produces I don't think the overall level of debt is an issue but it's clearly restraining both their dividend payout and their ability to acquire further closed life funds - which is where management really add value, taking cost out by combining management systems and freeing regulatory capital.

A company which has access to significant funds could therefore buy Phoeinx and leverage the existing systems and management expertise to deliver higher returns than the listed company currently can. Therefore a takeover could be win-win for both shareholders and the acquiring company however £7 doesn't seem a win scenario for shareholders imo.

[jonwig] 20/11/2011 19:53

Things are on the move. Now in talks with CVC:



I expect RNSs tomorrow morning.

[topvest] 20/11/2011 14:10

Interesting. Hold both companies and happy for them to retain independence. Phoenix is very cheap at the moment, but should reward the patient investor with £10 or so at some point.

[jonwig] 20/11/2011 13:51

Ah, thanks - I don't read the Times.

I see, looking at some recent RSL statements, that they are keen to build up an in-house investment management arm. Ignis will, of course, provide them with one off-the-peg.

[scburbs] 20/11/2011 13:06

Front page in the Sunday Times business section. With such high profile coverage, it seems certain that both PHNX and Resolution will make some form of statement in the morning before the market opens.

[jeff h] 20/11/2011 12:54

jonwig - it's in The Sunday Times as well

[jonwig] 20/11/2011 11:01

Nearly choked on my coffee just now:

Clive Cowdery's insurance group, Resolution, has made a £1.2bn takeover bid for Phoenix Group, the rival company to which he sold his original business in 2007.

It is understood that he is in talks about an all-share deal that will value Phoenix, which makes money by consolidating closed life–insurance funds, at around 700p a share. This compares with Phoenix's 492.1p closing share price on Friday.

Resolution declined to comment on the talks last night but an announcement is likely to be made to the stock market tomorrow.

Mr Cowdery will face opposition from insurer Swiss Re and private equity firm CVC for a deal.

Resolution was created in 2008 to consolidate the UK life insurance industry, a sector Mr Cowdery believed had too many inefficient, medium-sized companies.

The group came to life in the summer of 2009 when it launched the £1.86bn takeover of Friends Provident. This was later followed by deals for parts of Axa UK and Bupa.



NB: I can't find anywhere else reporting this, so a bit of caution might be advised!

[fenners66] 16/11/2011 16:44

Up a fraction already.
Still these are meant as a long term hold...

[fenners66] 16/11/2011 09:12

Bought some this morning.
We may have to wait a few years for the market to find value but large enough to ride out the right off of all the Sovereign risk anyway?

[liquidkid] 09/11/2011 13:31

The markets have made a Resolution to whack Phoenix down as well because they hold more Italian bonds than RSL

[liquidkid] 08/11/2011 16:30

The volume of shares traded on this are miniscule - at best a handfull of PI's putting their savings in to chase the yield?
£68bn FUM
£1bn inflows
£850mn market capitalisation
£750mn free cash flow (at low end)

[jonwig] 08/11/2011 10:51

Thanks for your input, DangerS.

Another positive is the IGD capital surplus, which has stayed flat at £1.1bn over the quarter. Aviva's dropped from £4bn to £2.7bn.

That said, if I buy more of these I'll be severely overweight in just one company and sector.

[dangersimpson2] 08/11/2011 09:48

Yes, good to hear that despite market turmoil everything seems to be on track with Phoenix. Reduced sovereign exposure to PIIGS is a positive. (As an aside you can see why Italy yield 6%+. Because no one wants to report any exposure to them to their shareholders companies like Phoenix just sell whatever the true risk.)

It seems that the sovereign debt crisis is actually positive for Ignis AUM since they hold much more 'safe' government paper like UK, Germany & US so a flight to safety benefits the value of their existing bond holdings more than the negative returns on periphery debt and equities.

These keep getting cheaper as the price falls or remains static yet management actions consistently add MCEV each year. I think a key to a re-rating will be a lifting of the dividend cap - if they can consistently pay a dividend at a higher level than the current constrained level I think it would focus a few minds on a company that currently flies under most people's radar. Gearing reduction is above target so let's hope there's some progress on that front soon.

[yupawiese2010] 08/11/2011 08:54

Likewise had a quick perusal, couldn`t seee any nasties, reassuring to know sovereign debt exposure is now down to £47 million.

[jonwig] 08/11/2011 07:56

The IMS today is pretty reassuring. The shares won't recover until the market does, but for anyone who doesn't need the cash, they are a strong hold and yield 8% with potential for upside on the dividend.

[bubbleandleek] 07/11/2011 14:28

Auctioned at the wrong level Friday night... sell off looks far worse than what it really is

[ursus] 07/11/2011 12:52

zombie price performance today....

[liquidkid] 28/10/2011 08:51

Q3 two weeks away now Tues 8th Nov might get a look into if the Greek thing had any impact on them

[chairman2] 16/9/2011 09:23

nightmare - no idea what happened just pressed the
button and whose pages of the stuff - had to get
rid of them

[jonwig] 16/9/2011 07:01

Well, that was a touch more interesting than a lot of postings on ADVFN! I hope you got a good night's sleep, Ch2.

[envirovision] 15/9/2011 22:29

WTF ? JEEZ !!!