Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[hyden] 09/2/2011 20:37

Thanks for the posts. It is good to note they are consistently positive. Just one more hurdle to clear - re-negotiating terms with the lenders - and then we should see some value realised in the shares. Currently buy one, get one free, using EEV as a measure of value. :-)

[197300] 09/2/2011 20:01

j.p. morgan recommendation 8th feb OVERWEIGHT
PHNX.L, PHNX LN
Management change - ALERT Price: 622p
04 February 2011
Insurance - Life
Duncan Russell, CFAAC
(44-20) 7325-4831
[e-mail]
Ashik Musaddi
(44-20) 7325-9226
[e-mail]
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
• Phoenix has announced that CEO Jonathan Moss is to be replaced with
Clive Bannister, formerly head of HSBC's global insurance business.
The press release states that the reason for the change is to lead Phoenix
"through the next stage of its development".
• While a surprise, we don't think the management change should be
viewed as indicating something more dramatic. Our sense is that the
Board instead feels that a change of management will be in the long term
interests of shareholders, particularly as the Group has now transitioned
from a private to a public company.
• We do not believe that the announcement has implications for the bank
negotiations as these are being handled by CFO Jonathan Yates. Here we
note in the past management has stated that it will not issue equity to pay
down debt as part of these negotiations and our analysis suggests that
there is no near term cash squeeze at the Group.
• We note that Phoenix has also stated that it "remains on track to deliver
on all its 2010 financial targets, including operating companies' cash gereration at the top of it's target range of 625/725mn

[197300] 09/2/2011 19:56

deutsche bank 8th feb price target 860p
Clive Bannister to replace Jonathan Moss
Phoenix, the specialist consolidator of UK closed life funds, has announced
that Jonathan Moss is to step down as CEO, to be succeeded by Clive
Bannister, previously (until March 2010) Head of Insurance at HSBC. Moss
has resigned with immediate effect, but will remain available to the group
until the end of July.
We see the handover as being in keeping with the metamorphosis in
Phoenix itself over the last eighteen months from private to public company,
which in turn has created a more strategic role for the CEO than has previously
been the case.
Handover suggests confidence on current bank debt negotiations
On balance, we see the new appointment as being good news for Phoenix.
The share price has been dogged in recent months by nervousness over
the outcome of current bank debt renegotiations (see 'Phoenix Group Holdings:
The Waiting Game', 3.2.11). Though we no longer expect any resolution
from these to be announced in the 1Q (as per the group's original
indications), management still appear confident that a deal will happen at
some stage, and that such a deal should not require new shareholder capital.
Indeed, if there is one single message that comes out from today's
announcement, it is that management is clearly planning for the long-term,
while the share price is mired in shorter-term concerns.
Reiterate Buy, price target 860p
We thus reiterate our Buy recommendation of last week -- with greater
conviction that successful debt renegotiations will at some stage in 2011
deliver a lower risk profile to the group as well as enabling the removal of
the current dividend cap. On this basis, the shares offer 36% upside to our
price target, trading at 52% of 2010e embedded value, with an expected
dividend yield in 2011e of 7.9%.
Oliver Steel

[jonwig] 09/2/2011 19:47

A bit more comment here:



Moss = £2m golden goodbye.

[jonwig] 09/2/2011 07:43

197... the biggest loans are syndicated: the Pearl and Impala facilities.

LloydsTSB and Abbey National are mentioned as lenders of individual small amounts. HSBC isn't mentioned in the 2009 AR anywhere.

[197300] 08/2/2011 20:19

i was just wondering, is hsbc one of the banks phnx is negotiating with regarding dividend payout?

[hyden] 08/2/2011 13:56

Comforting news re: cash generation. Exactly the announcement I was waiting for before dipping my toe in. We may well have seen the lows now. :-)

Interesting news re: Jonathan's departure, though. I must admit that did come as a surprise. New owners non too keen over recent share price performance, perhaps?

[197300] 08/2/2011 13:31

hopefully it will start to go up from now, has been a dog of a share for the last few months. everything going up and phnx going down.

[envirovision] 08/2/2011 07:49

better than that:

operating companies' cash generation at the top of its target range

[jonwig] 08/2/2011 07:46

One of those intriguing announcements. out of the blue, immediate effect, et cetera.

Some people were clearly not happy with some parts of Moss's strategy and that transmitted itself to the share price. But Moss decided to go cleanly - no doubt a handsome pay-off - and gets a nice speech from the Chairman.

Note that the RNS reiterates that there isn't a shortfall in upcoming results.

[envirovision] 08/2/2011 07:37

Tue 8th Feb 2011 7:20:08

DJ Phoenix Appoint Clive Bannister CEO; Reiterates FY Guidance

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), a specialist consolidator of closed life funds, Tuesday announced that Clive Bannister has joined the Group as Chief Executive, replacing Jonathan Moss, and added that the Group remains on track to deliver on all its 2010 financial targets, including operating companies' cash generation at the top of its target range of GBP625-GBP725 million.

MAIN FACTS:

-Bannister is the former Group Managing Director of Insurance and Asset Management at HSBC.

-Moss has resigned with immediate effect, but will remain available to the company until July 31.

-Shares closed Monday at 633 pence valuing the company at GBP1.08 billion.

[jonwig] 29/1/2011 12:00

Shall we celebrate the fact that non-exec director Tom Cross Brown has bought 1615 shares on 27/01.

[jonwig] 24/1/2011 20:09

197300 - basically, nothing to say as nothing new from the company. Results at end of March, I think.

Given the nature of the business, I doubt that something unexpected has happened, though there may have been delays in some of their targets.

[197300] 24/1/2011 19:49

am i standing here all alone, is there nobody out there?
i was up to 7.70 for these shares am now less than 6.00.
what is happening?

[envirovision] 05/1/2011 12:54

Morning Scburbs, yes good point then with the divi waived gone the objective is to improve shareholder return. I hope Stemis is right about his 12 month target.

I have taken some for my ISA. (I also hold RSL which I think looks good value).

[scburbs] 05/1/2011 10:30

Morning Envirovision,

Dividends were capped at 50 Euro cents under one of the debt arrangements. The capital raised at 660p was used to repay the amount necessary to clear this cap. I don't think they would have raised the capital to remove this cap unless there was a clear intention to start raising the dividend above this level.

[envirovision] 05/1/2011 10:18

I have some estimates on sharescope. 2010 eps 176p, 2011 at 53p, 2012 at 77p

meanwhile dividends 2010 at 43p, 2011 at 48p and 2012 at 52p

is this feasable, was there a 43p divi last year?

[jonwig] 05/1/2011 10:04

Have just read the thread on TMF:



As noted in my own contribution, just how are asset managers valued?
My suggestion of 0.1% of FUM discounted over 20 years (dcf 7%) was meant to be very much on the low side but produces a pretty high figure for the "value" of Ignis AM: £800m!

[stemis] 05/1/2011 09:30

Yes, taken a few shares here. Looks good value as such a large discount to MCEV. Surplus capital is actually more than market cap! Would have liked to have seen a holding company balance sheet. There's a lot of cash in the consolidated balance sheet but I assume it is in subsidiaries and therefore restricted to shareholders. However with £700m holding company cashflow, debt should come down pretty quick. Dividend of 42p is a yield of 6.8% but costs only £72m, so plenty of room to increase.

Can see this being £10+ in 12 months.

[hyden] 21/12/2010 13:26

I think they're good value too but someone's obviously off loading so I'll wait a short while before jumping on board. To be fair, the whole industry is on a downer so I think this stock is one for the patient.

[scburbs] 21/12/2010 13:18

At the risk of getting cut I have picked up a few for my ISA. Looks like good value to me.

[197300] 21/12/2010 09:33

me neither.

[jonwig] 20/12/2010 19:45

This isn't in the script I was following!