Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 11/4/2024 14:34

We've been here before, several times. If it wasn't for the chunky dividends, I'd be looking to sell above 49p and buy back below 44p. :-)

[qs99] 11/4/2024 11:51

Oil price holding up well, decent update IMO, yield is great, should be way North of 50p IMO/DYOR and happy to continue to hold...

[pughman] 11/4/2024 09:56

The restricted cash continues to build. When do the locals start getting the money,it must be frustrating for them, but good to know they will be benefitting, as they should be.

[royalalbert] 11/4/2024 09:21

Anyone know the reason for the low buybacks lately, just need more board approvals?

Good figures for the quarter, and oil above guidance.

Perupetro figures showing average of 19990 for the first 8 days of April for those interested.

[gutterhead] 11/4/2024 09:12

Dividend looks safe
We might give 50p another test

[stemis] 11/4/2024 08:49

In line production of 18,518 bopd for Q1. Production for last days approx 20,500.

[pughman] 10/4/2024 00:30

Latest update, 35,000 barrels for April 7, another $3m in the kitty.

[tag57] 10/4/2024 00:29

TTB - hopefully not as happy compounding at 12% yield :-)

[taurusthebear] 09/4/2024 19:35

Isn't it about time someone started posting what a great buy this is, and how high the shares should go... just before they fall back from 50p to the low 40s. Again. :0)

[royalalbert] 04/4/2024 09:11

Pughman yep barge fleet at 1.6 million hopefully, on that basis you would expect shipping to improve considerably.

I.E 1600000 fleet / 30000 perday = 53 days.

Or am I over thinking.

[pughman] 04/4/2024 08:57

Ptal said last August the target was to reduce the Manaus round trip to under 50 days. Since then they've increased the size of the barge fleet and are now transferring the oil directly from barge to tanker at Manaus, without having to wait for terminal availability.

[royalalbert] 03/4/2024 16:10

Anyone know the actual travelling time to Manaus? 25 days round trip?

[royalalbert] 03/4/2024 15:21

Husted should have probably worded it better, 5 days of no volume through Petroperu figures.

As to how the figures can tally up over time you will notice that Petroperu figures for Feb are higher than the figures given by PTAL.

As stated before I think they are a useful insight into how production and deliveries are proceeding.

[thommie] 03/4/2024 07:40

Well, perupetro figures are a nice tool if u watched it over the years to indicate problems often much earlier than the company itself told us. I guess in reality it's possible that we lost 5 days of production, as the field got shut in for at least 3 days. And after u restart it, it takes time until you reach max production, maybe u never reach it, as by shutting down one of the esp's got damaged and refuses to restart, so a workover to change the pump, costing millions is needed. I dont understand why ptal even shut down production, if the storage is around 90 000 bbls which equates to 4,5days of full production one may think you can just produce into the storage and shut in the field when it is full... So why shut it in before? The only explanation I have is that the storage was already nearly full when the accident happened or that ptal believed they need to shut down for a long time anyway. In the past they often reduced esp rates to produce less so that they didnt have to shut down the esp's completely, fearing the esp failure... But what do I know... Im glad they solved this oil leak issue very fast, although not their own fault...

[husted] 03/4/2024 00:52

Royal, you said that 5 days of production were lost when actually only 3 were lost. This is because the PetroPeru report is misleading.

So as I said, zero on the PetroPeru report for a given day usually doesn't mean production has stopped. Instead we know production stopped for 3 days because the company told us.

I'm laboring this point because zeros regularly appear on the PetroPeru report and nobody gets an explanation of these reports and why they are limited unless they contact IR which most people don't have time for.

[royalalbert] 02/4/2024 20:40

Husted correct

"I think it's important that people don't look at the PetroPeru report and see zero for a particular day, and think production has stopped. Because it usually just means production hasn't passed an audit point and therefore field is producing normally."

That's why I stated

"With production into their own storage, etc, expect production to have surpassed Q1 forecast."

[husted] 02/4/2024 12:35

Royal- if PTAL had a good figures to end of March they should meet or beat 18,500 guidance.

We know Manalo said that they were on track to meet guidance and currently averaging approx 18250 for Q1 at last update.

PetroPeru report never agrees with actual production and Petrotal say they only lost 3 days of production with the barge incident:



I think it's important that people don't look at the PetroPeru report and see zero for a particular day, and think production has stopped. Because it usually just means production hasn't passed an audit point and therefore field is producing normally.

[royalalbert] 02/4/2024 07:30

Q1 average Petroperu figures 18282 bopd, that's a good turnaround considering 5 days lost. With production into their own storage, etc, expect production to have surpassed Q1 forecast.

With oil price as it is, expect another uplift on Divi due to liquidity sweep.

[metis20] 29/3/2024 07:13

re #5622

"... the Company is still expected to meet Q1 2024 production guidance of 18,500 bopd."

[husted] 27/3/2024 18:59

True, but they budgeted for the capex including erosion control at $77 Brent.

The last quarter dividend only cost $18m. We got 2 cents, so $9m cost for each cent.

PTAL say each extra $3 on Brent adds an extra $10m of free cash flow, so if Brent averages $83 that's $20m. But that's annually,so divide by 4 and you get $5m extra this quarter for dividend. So in theory, they could manage an extra half cent costing $4.5m

ie 2.5cent dividend ?????

Edit: this looks wrong, as budget is only for 1.5c div, so maybe extra half cent gives us 2c div this time.

[tag57] 27/3/2024 18:17

Husted, for this quarter divi I would be happy with another 2c given PTAL have a decent capex budget this year due to the erosion work taking place.

[husted] 27/3/2024 17:46

Yes, I think the 15,600 figure is approximate too.

[royalalbert] 27/3/2024 15:58

I take all information available and to me it's valuable. Did the company mention any stoppage to shipping oil due to the barge problem? the table clearly shows a stoppage for a few days. It's up and running favourably now and that's good.

The be all and end all is we take different information which we find helpful. I wish you well and we both surely agree for divi's etc this is a good company with a long term future.