Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 07/6/2021 13:44

They are 6 hours out so that will be a factor.

Looking at things again I think I am going to stop analysing this for now. I don't think there is much chance of being able to call the election so I might as well wait until later.

[doughcyclone] 07/6/2021 13:38

Reckon we will get any more information on foreign cast votes today?

[johnhemming] 07/6/2021 13:28

It is difficult to say. I am assuming that the number of votes cast in total in each area vote all the same way and that as the proportion analysed goes to 100% that this does not shift.

It clearly has shifted.

Now there is an additional point which is that it is likely that the smaller places have not reported and we don't know if when calculating the number of votes processed they are correctly apportioning it.

In any event if people have followed my comments here they will know my views about the two potential outcomes.

I will do the afternoon school run at some point and am going to do another analysis.

I don't think the result will necessarily become clear today during trading hours or even during Canadian trading hours. It may also be impossible to call tomorrow.

A margin of 1,000 votes can be affected by the foreign votes in a single country let alone a continent. Africa is all in, but the other continents are not.

[sleveen] 07/6/2021 13:28

Breath well and truly bated.

[johnhemming] 07/6/2021 13:04

>I can’t believe they are leaving nearly all the expat votes until the end.
This is all about practicalities.

There is no strategic approach where they decided to do this.

These are my predictions so far
Castillo Fujimori
7am 8,644,740 9,125,669
8am 8,742,549 8,965,230
9.30 8,760,437 8,885,139
12.30 8,776,028 8,774,900

At 9.30 I went out and did other things because it was obvious that it would be too close to call. It still is.

[king_baller] 07/6/2021 12:42

I can’t believe they are leaving nearly all the expat votes until the end. Castillo supporters will feel they have been robbed! I’m feeling comfortable enough to make an initial investment here now on a risk:reward basis. (Could be a mistake, but I feel upside significantly outweighs downside at the current price, particularly taking into account expat votes to come)

[thommie] 07/6/2021 12:30

this thread seems to be a voting report machinery :). I still dont care who wins, as it wont change anything. I only wonder how long it takes till the nrx elections happen. be it 6 or 12 months?

[johnhemming] 07/6/2021 12:22

My current spreadsheet has Castillo winning by 1,128 with 8,776,028 to 8,774,900 votes, but there remain uncertainties.

In the end it is a question of how many Expat votes are cast (there may be more than the first round) viz a viz how many more banker territories votes there are for Castillo.

At this stage 3 departments have finished.

Looking at my data I think there are errors in the figures I have for the percentage completed for each department/region.

Hence I would not rely on the figures to predict the outcome. It is an obvious case of "too close to call".

[bubloo] 07/6/2021 11:58

If Keiko were to win Where do you think Ptal share price would be?

my guess in the next few days 21 to 23 pence based on fundamentals alone, forget the astronomical growth in production forecast and the accumulated tax losses.

[bubloo] 07/6/2021 11:53

93% done
Keiko ahead by 123000
575000 to be counted
of which 300000 expats 275000 Peru
of which 210000 to Keiko if trend continues and around 90000 to Castillo
so base on above Keiko will have 243000 ahead
so Castillo needs 244000 of the 275000 in Peru
come on Keiko get another 40000 in Peru and than my investment is a winner

[doughcyclone] 07/6/2021 11:08

ONPEs website. The dudes who count.