Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[sturm2] 12/3/2021 22:27

Still a lot of oil in ONP waiting to be sold + they've said the February export to Brazil did happen, but not disclosed price. As JM says hedging was a part of the financing agreement, but - it's pretty much impossible to guess what they've done exactly and how much they will benefit from increase in brent. Hopefully at least some of the hedging is just options.
The program is described p 29 in the latest presentation:

(btw, I dont think I've seen any O&G junior being so invested in the local community - p. 32/33)

[jailbird] 12/3/2021 15:17

What's going here 1v8 now MM very liquid both ways

[junky monkey] 12/3/2021 13:26

They could purchase puts as the hedge, or they could enter into fixed delivery contracts at a certain price, in which they would have to deliver to the buyer regardless of the spot and the buyer would have to take it regardless o the spot. I think they might mean the latter as they mentioned settling up the accounts every month ... ?

Odd if they didn't hedge already, I thought they also said that the hedge would be placed as soon as the bond funds were in place, and that this is actually a requirement of the bond, so not something they could choose to gamble on the POO after the bond funds had arrived.

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/3/2021 13:02

Upper 60's is a great place to be sticking in a $40 floor

[tbeerbrewer] 12/3/2021 12:00

According to Alexander Stahel (BurggrabenH on Twitter) they have not hedged yet. PetroPeru will hedge transportation duration (and charge TAL some for it). TAL does not have an obligation to hedge and remains unhedged to his knowledge.

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/3/2021 11:44

Junky Monkey
12 Mar '21 - 11:33 - 3108 of 3108
0 0
The rising price of oil shouldn't benefit PTAL too much, as I understodd that when the 100m bond cleared, they would immediately hedge production.

..The idea of hedging is to put a floor under the OP.... doesn't come for free, but doesn't mean signing away all the OP upside either.

[mount teide] 12/3/2021 09:51

L2: 2 v 6 / 18.0p v 19.0p (then 2 x 19.5p)

[sturm2] 12/3/2021 09:04

Cheers Spangle. It will probably not warrant RNS or press release, so we just need to watch the production I guess. But we'll likely get at "spud" announcement and maybe a production update with that.

[spangle93] 11/3/2021 20:03

Sturm2 - difficult to say precisely, but if it's just a replacement of downhole ESP then once a rig is in position, it should be under a week - that order of magnitude.

[mcfly79] 11/3/2021 19:19

The schedule is more specific about the first well.


‘The first 2021 development well is expected to be on production in April..’


This will be a deviated well (the plan is to drill and complete four wells in 2021 - one deviated well and three horizontal wells. The three horizontal wells will be brought online in H2 2021).


They were previously targeting 45 days to drill and complete deviated wells.


Therefore, to get it on production by the end of April, I think the well must be spudding soon.

[11_percent] 11/3/2021 18:53

Not qualified.

My guess is that it is a downhole submersable pump. Should be, one out, one in.

Thats the work for March. The schedule says "New oil wells completed"...Q2. So, could be starting soon.

[sturm2] 11/3/2021 15:01

Any oil engineer or similar with a qualified guess re. how long time this should/could take?
"In addition, a $1 million workover on the 4H well will commence in March that will result in a higher capacity pump being installed. The 4H well has been shut in since late January due to a transformer failure during the commissioning of the new crude oil power generation plant, thereby causing issues with the original pump"

It's the main reason why we're below on production. Production will catch up with the new pump in Q3.

[11_percent] 11/3/2021 13:02

Cheers guys.

[mcfly79] 11/3/2021 10:32

The first well is due to be on production in April so must be spudding any time now.


The workover on the 4H well is also due to commence in March.

[thegreatgeraldo] 11/3/2021 10:26

Drilling plans........

[11_percent] 11/3/2021 10:22

Hi guys,

Does anyone know when the well of 2021 kicks off drilling.

Do we have a drilling plan for 2021.

Cheers.

[mount teide] 07/3/2021 23:21

Brent opens up 1.73% at $70.56

[mount teide] 07/3/2021 16:07

Crescat Capital finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December.

All three Crescat Capital funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the Number 1 spot.

Some of Crescat's macro investing charts for 2021, where they see an incredible macro set opportunity for commodities for years ahead:

Energy Sector Capex Cycle



Commodities v Emerging Markets

The chart below shows how commodities have massively lagged versus the rise of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in the last few years. This divergence puts into perspective how only one of those two assets looks to be an asymmetric opportunity for the years ahead – commodities.



The Great Rotation

If we could only focus in one chart for the next three to five years, it would be the following. For us, the opportunity of buying historically undervalued commodity related assets while hedging our exposure by shorting overhyped equities is compelling.



Crescat US Equity Market Valuation Model




'As profiled in our recent quarterly newsletters, the stage is set for a massive investor shift out of overvalued mega cap growth stocks and fixed income securities and into undervalued materials, energy, and other commodities. We believe it is the dawn of what we are calling the Great Rotation.

The preconditions are summarized as follows:

* The Democratic sweep opens the way for full Modern Monetary Theory implementation;

* Janet Yellen as Secretary of the Treasury brings the Fed and US Government onto the same team;

* The appointment of Bernie Sanders as the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee sets the tone for a fiscal spending explosion;

* Jerome Powell “welcomes” inflation and is “not even thinking about raising rates”;

* The Fed’s quantitative easing is on autopilot at $120 billion per month with no end in sight;

* Twin budget and trade deficits have continued to deteriorate and are now at 25% of nominal GDP;

* Record valuations for stocks and fixed income securities;

* Historic global debt to GDP imbalances;

* Extreme bullishness and speculative long positioning in overvalued large cap growth and tech stocks;

* Historic relative undervaluation of commodities and equities of basic resource companies;

* Investor overconfidence in Fed to keep stocks and credit buoyed without creating significant inflation;

* The Fed will likely no longer be able to keep both interest rates and inflation down at the same time;

* Inflation is catalyst for the Great Rotation, the end game for popular risk parity hedge fund strategies;

* Forget about the “output gap”: Inflation today starts with the “input gap” – rising wholesale prices due to underinvestment in commodity industries that will lead to supply shortages;

* Aggregate demand meanwhile is indeed boosted by MMT;

* Money printing combined with declining negative real rates are creating explosive macro demand drivers for gold and silver;

* Precious metals represent the core asset class for capital preservation in a rising inflation and overvalued financial asset world;

* All fiat currencies globally are being devalued relative to gold;

* The US dollar is not the structurally weakest fiat currency;

* The Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar represent two of the most overvalued currencies on the planet today in Crescat’s analysis;

* China has created a massive $46 trillion USD of credit in its banking system which is insolvent; and

* The Chinese banking bubble is four times greater than the bank asset to GDP imbalance in the US at the peak of the housing bubble ahead of the 2008 GFC creating emerging markets FX risk that much of investing world is oblivious to today.

[mount teide] 05/3/2021 16:11

L2: 1 v 2 / 17.75p v 18.00p (then 3 x 18.5p, 2 x 19.0p and 1 x 19.5p)

[mount teide] 05/3/2021 16:05

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:

0.00% - Jadestone Energy / No Change
0.00% - PetroTal / (down from 0.22%)
0.45% - Pantheon Resources / (Down from 0.50%)
0.55% - Savannah Energy / (down from 0.65%)
1.23% - Touchstone Exp / (up from 0.52%)
3.79% - Shell / (up from 2.38%)
3.60% - Enquest / (up from 3.06%)
3.89% - BP / (up from 3.76%)
6.43% - Cairn / (up from 5.76%)

[johnhemming] 05/3/2021 15:59

It is, however, always really a logarithmic scale. It also depends upon why you need to sell. For example, I sold some BILB today at 34 that I expect to get above 50p, but to invest in PTAL. I don't gear my trades.

[jbravo2] 05/3/2021 15:43

Sure, but that's not much different to 16 or 17p is it?
I bought over a million at 6p but its not tempting me

[johnhemming] 05/3/2021 15:40

There is also the factor that at 18p someone who took part in the issue at 10p will be reasonably happy to sell even if it could end up at £1.

[jbravo2] 05/3/2021 15:31

Yes, it's a very real phenomenon.
Some people really have trouble believing a transformation until it is posted up in yearly numbers and HAS BEEN delivered. Of course by then they miss the bargain stage.
This is on the cusp of big moves in production and profitability. This time next year everyone will know, for now, it's just us happy few!