almost every one bearish on oil, but bullish on gas (power)
so I sold some of my gas shares ;) for a nice profit and went into oil, including ptal |
Difficult not to agree... |
 New PTAL note by Zeus is available on the Research Hub. Written by someone who's just got a dictionary for Christmas, there's no new news, but instead, the thrust of it is in the first paragraph
Despite a degree of share price underperformance over the course of 2024, this has become more acute in recent weeks, with the shares falling to levels not seen since early 2022. Since that time PetroTal has consolidated and grown its Brazil export route, materially grown production, and established a strong shareholder returns programme. We believe the recent price performance is unjustified, and provides an attractive entry point based on both our NAV and peer trading multiples, and on the upcoming 2025 programme.
It changes the target price to 95p from 97p based on higher erosion control works. and concludes
Overall, it is our view that while the share performance for most of 2024 has been unjustified given the progress the company has made, recent performance has been particularly egregious, and current levels represent an attractive entry point for exposure to the work programmes, cash flows, and shareholder returns coming up in 2025. |
Although when has Eric Nuttall not been super bullish on oil over the last couple of years. |
S93 worth reading, |
Bozzy way Starmer and co are steering the economy divi will become even greater. |
There's sub 30. Emptied my savings to add. Could drop further, but this is a long term investment. Weaker £ v $ has also increased our dividend slightly.
£1 = $1.258 US
So PTAL now yielding, at 30p, 15.9% before withholding tax, and 13.5% after.
I decided that's better than earning a guaranteed and safe 5.5% in the bank. I'm prepared to be down 10% - 20% in a few days. It's a risk. But the share price doesn't reflect the production numbers and the oil price. It has to correct itself in the long run.
Agree with above - a sell order being filled. |
S93 cannot see brent falling that low, WTI would be much lower and companies in the US would be making a loss so curtail production.
Just think it's all about someone selling down some of their holding. |
When the knives hit the floor it is time to pick up a lot of them. |
Maybe there is concern about scenarios coming to pass when Brent will fall, such that dividend would be cut
Slide 37 of the current December presentation implies that there's not much FCF at $65/bbl, and none at $60/bbl
Or maybe it's just end of year portfolio tidying? |
Might be tin hat moment and im crazy but from my observations, there have been chuncky block selling happening here for several weeks now.
Now you'd expect some sort of TR-1 or something to indicate reduction in ownership if its large holder but we haven't seen that yet. Perhaps we will or its someone that is already below threshold and doesn't need to declare I'm not sure but I'm amazed at how low its gone. You would think brent is currently at $50 the way the share price has been acting out. |
Yep, but how many is anyones guess, just seems funny both here and AXL. Not sure what other holdings they have or could be selling.
Perhaps it's just balancing books for the new year and for all we know could end Tomorrow. |
RA - you think the major holder is drip selling down? Could be.. haven't seen if they are selling stuff elsewhere as well? - it would explain things. |
Looks cheap, it is cheap. |
Had to dip back in on this one looks cheap :) |
WTF is going on here, honestly. Do we have a legit distressed seller or are people just bailing slowly due to erosion control cost fears? I don't get this share price capitulation. |
Production looks great at year end - although they still can't overcome the low seasonal water levels.
Plenty of cash on balance sheet but $60 million on erosion control over the next 18 months is not pretty - what if this turns to 80? 90?
I'm factoring in four 1p dividends (after tax) which gives a yield of 13% at 30p. When a yield goes hits the 10 to 15% range something normally gives - either the dividend gets cut or the stock snaps back.
Recent falls are harsh, which again will spook investors.
However, if production and dividend both hold, then by end of 2026, you will have 8p back in dividends and the erosion control should be complete. |
Even with potential divi reinvestment taking place the share price continues to drop.
Strange as we have got through the dry season in a positive manner, crude prices appear to have bottomed out and management are developing further opportunities. |
Buzzy - record date is completely irrelevant to shareholders. It's an administrative date for determining where the dividends are sent. The xd and payment dates are what matters. |
Thanks for the responses. Better check other shares this might also apply to. |
Yes, can concur. Lloyds will NOT help you out with this - I moved to AJB to resolve this dividend tax 'theft'! |
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