Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[kenj4] 07/5/2021 12:23

MidasX, I make it US$84.5 for the current value of IRC - not $96m.
Still a lot better than the $10m stalled offer.

[midasx] 07/5/2021 08:52

POG's stake in IRC now worth $96 Million US.

Slightly more than the $10 Million sale price mooted by the old board.

[midasx] 06/5/2021 15:06

Nice to see Gold shoot back through $1800!

Investment in IRC has been very rewarding over the last 12 months, over a 500% gain!

[robertstronghand] 05/5/2021 10:44

An interesting scenario is if Polygon owns less than twenty percent of the convert. Get the remaining holders to convert and then forcibly redeem Polygon's stake for cash, they would then be in the position of having to buy back 188m shares, think of the price spike before the EGM. Once we start paying a dividend there will be a superior income stream from the equity than the converts, so I think conversion before 2024 will be preferable.

[robertstronghand] 05/5/2021 08:57

I assume they are hedging the convertible bond holding, maybe even to the extent they are almost market neutral and are just picking up the bond payments, actually I wouldn't be surprised if they are pretty much the sole remaining holder of the convertible bond who hasn't converted yet, as most have. I doubt they are actively shorting and can cover from shares they effectively own with their convertible bond holding. Of that convertible bond $87m converted in to 644m shares, so $38m left to convert in to 281m shares. 4.76% of 3,957m shares is a short total of 188m. Feel free to check my sums and data. A little frustrating that there is a fair bit of dilution to come, still if we can crack through big resistance at $1800 on gold, get those flotation plants up and running, lower the value and cost of the debt, and eventually sell the IRC stake for big money, maybe we will have the option to purchase the 'shares' rather than issue them to the holder, I believe we have the option to do so but unless 80% plus are covered this has to be at the bondholders agreement, possible Polygon would be happy to unload such a large equity stake at market price if they are a convertible fund (although currently all that would mean is they would then have to go in to the market and buy back the shares they are short, so not something they would agree to).

[apple53] 03/5/2021 23:32

I don't believe Polygon have a naked short. I think this is a short to offset convertible arb holding. Someone may a) be able to explain why or b) may wish to correct me if I have missed major news from Tetragon/Polygon on this recently.

[popeye888] 01/5/2021 06:34

I noticed Polygon Global Partners LLP increased their short position on Wednesday 29th April 2021, not a good sign for the share price.

Fund % short Date changed
Polygon Global Partners LLP 4.76% 29 Apr 2021
Polygon Global Partners LLP 4.61% 4 Jan 2021
Polygon Global Partners LLP 4.57% 5 Nov 2020
Polygon Global Partners LLP 4.61% 21 Oct 2020

[robertstronghand] 29/4/2021 09:01

IRC published this quarter's update, cash on hand has gone from $20.4m to $41.5m, impressive. Sutara is starting up too so it looks like we might meet the conditions that will remove the $120m corporate guarantee. Gold looks like it is ready to break 1800 too after the briefest of consolidations.

[shaf200] 27/4/2021 16:46

WTF happend today

[seppsuess] 25/4/2021 09:26

Also IRC is now on the right track

[robertstronghand] 23/4/2021 19:14

Polymetal hit a high of 2085 and a low of 1382. 40p was an artificial high due to the Norwegian SWF calling back their shares they had leant out to short sellers anyway. Still we can all arbitrarily look at certain points in time and come up with what we like, what matters is your own entry and exit points. Nice rise today despite the sell off in gold.

[officehead] 23/4/2021 16:42

Actually Midas - I think you will find 25% off its high last year is a more accurate comment. Didn't see the share price drop to 22.5p.

[midasx] 23/4/2021 14:35

Nice to see 28p again, a 25% rise from recent lows.

[robertstronghand] 22/4/2021 16:39

TEMI deadline is 22nd of May, price is $60m, which I hope will be all cash, certainly not discounted shares. $7.5m on the books end of Q1, but a portion of March gold proceeds were due, perhaps they will have enough with the April proceeds and whatever accumulates in early May, unlikely, but they could fill any shortfall with the revolving credit facility. Revenue should be about $50m a month (30k x 1780), but that ignores outgoings.

[robertstronghand] 21/4/2021 09:48

Production was in line with the forecast, the company is in a transitional phase, the share price rose as the markets are forward looking. Similarly the revolving credit facility with Gazprombank is 3.5-4.5%, well below the 8% coupon currently paid on the 500m bonds due next year in November. That was the most significant news for me, that and gold continuing to rally.

[undervaluedassets] 21/4/2021 08:28

It is simple. Russia wants their gold assets back. And they are not prepared to pay for them. They want "Albion" out of the picture.

Investors at HGM got shafted. There was no bid premium there and investors got a few pieces of silver for a highly valuable asset.

[officehead] 20/4/2021 20:20

...... and I thought I wear rose tinted glasses!!!.
Operationally pitiful, Malomir ok, Pioneer - nothing going on underground, Albyn - real concern going forward if the Elgin ore has higher refractory component and more difficult to mill combined with lower recovery rate.

POX working, but most of the plant not running.

For me the price rise is primarily the FCA update.

Still believe there is value but the picture currently a slower recovery than I believed and honestly don't foresee a substantial share increase for sometime based on what I have read from the little real information provided. Of course I would love to be wrong - and with POG its very easy.

[weemonkey] 20/4/2021 20:08

Midas. Reality check. same production report from 2018:-



This is a 'normal' production report before the POX hub was up and running. In the report from 2018 (during which POG was deemed to be struggling) production has slipped by 5% over a year to 112,556 ounces

In today's report production collapsed 49% over a year to 95,600 ounces.

Put simply today's production report shows us producing less gold WITH the POX hub than we were in 2018 without it.

I need hardly remind investors where the share price was in 2018.

Do you know I thought today's production numbers were that bad they were made up. If, as some say, Strukov wants the whole thing on the cheap they certainly do not harm his cause.

Anyway look, good luck all. I got lucky getting in at around 7-14p with multiple buys. For that I am grateful. Time for me to perhaps put the money in a company that is not forever "jam tomorrow" and does actually pay a dividend. Maybe even Polymetal.

[midasx] 20/4/2021 19:45

Perhaps you should read the full RNS instead of looking at the headline figures?

It is nobody's responsibility to spell things out for you and all your questions are fully accounted for in the RNS.

Good luck with your future investments.

[jimbobs147] 20/4/2021 16:34

The cash is a concern but is explained by the fact cash expected in March arrived in April ... have to take that on face value I suppose?Must admit when I read the news this morning I fully expected the price to drop and can't understand the 1% rise?

[weemonkey] 20/4/2021 15:36

And where has the cash gone .. They had some . It's gone.

And there is going to be a divi?! I don't think so. Instead they are going to run out of cash ... again!

[weemonkey] 20/4/2021 15:35

I am not surprised that production report has been met with silence on this board.

After years here.. I am out ..

Production down 49% (?!) and the mines look to be empty

And the WTF happened to the POX Hub? This was going to be POG's saviour. It is not producing enough gold to wash it's own face.

To make matters worse clearly inferior grade 3rd party concentrate has been bought by POG for the PoX hub .

[midasx] 19/4/2021 11:21

Very strong iron ore prices, I would be very happy to see POG crystallize their IRC holdings (for a fair price) and release the company from the debt guarantee.

Instant credit rerating and opportunity to refinance the Bonds at a very preferential rate.

[robertstronghand] 19/4/2021 10:17

IRC making the next jump up as well in HK.

[srpactive] 19/4/2021 09:07

M /r

Yes I completely agree, the ex hgm gentleman is really starting to
put his team together. As most know I was heavily into hgm from the
early days and increased here further on his appointment. I will
continue to increase here as pog has such potential.

dyor

active