Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[robertstronghand] 19/4/2021 08:01

Looks like another good appointment, very impressive management and board been put together. Breakout from a multi year cup and handle coming up for gold, once in a lifetime investment opportunity.

[midasx] 19/4/2021 07:10

Seems like a very sound appointment to help confidence in internal governance going forward.

Mr. Irzhevsky has over 25 years of commercial experience with significant expertise in internal controls, governance, corporate law and M&A transactions, including in the resources sector and in Russia. Mr. Irzhevsky has served as chair of the audit committee for Bank Trust in Moscow since August 2019 and is currently Deputy CEO for Legal Affairs at Russian Direct Investment Fund.

Mr. Irzhevsky is a Russian national and a fluent English speaker. Following his appointment to the Board, he has also become a member of the audit and remuneration committee s.

[midasx] 18/4/2021 07:58

Gold prices rose to a seven-week high on Friday and were on track for their best week since mid-December as retreating U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar...

[srpactive] 16/4/2021 14:35

Bought a few more here as I feel gold will go on a decent run over the
Summer.

dyor

active

[robertstronghand] 14/4/2021 13:56

hxxps://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-maintains-petropavlovsk-on-rwn-13-04-2021
Fitch maintains rating, using their hilariously bearish gold price forecast too. Article, behind a paywall, in the Mining Journal about Polymetal considering having refractory ore processing at their pox hub(s) as a standalone business. Can't read it unfortunately.

[midasx] 14/4/2021 09:56

Forecasted future dividend yield of over 6% should help.

[robertstronghand] 13/4/2021 17:10

Polymetal making a move, no doubt helped by their sizeable dividend next month. Where Poly goes, Pog will follow due course. Looks like we won't dip again...

[midasx] 07/4/2021 11:28

Citadel Europe LLP 0.96% -0.06% 6 Aug 2020
Polygon Global Partners LLP 4.61% 0.04% 4 Jan 2021


Total 5.57%

Polygon still with a healthy 4.61% short position.

[undervaluedassets] 06/4/2021 09:42

Thanks apple..

And I must apologize to the board for that unfortunate spat..

[apple53] 05/4/2021 22:41

I think the statement is a mixed bag, though on the whole slightly disappointing. I get how one can read it cynically or hopefully, and it probably comes down to faith in Alexandrov.

However, can we please avoid personal attacks on this board? - they poison other fora, and after a flurry of disagreements around Stukov's intentions, I thought we had settled down to discussing the issues (and the only personal attacks were on POG-linked individuals). I found the misrepresentations of UVA's discussion of Covid in Brazil particularly off-target.

Meanwhile I am very grateful to officehead (and previously to Troy) for the Russian-sourced info.

[robertstronghand] 05/4/2021 11:44

Good stuff, thanks.

[officehead] 05/4/2021 08:11

Petropavlovsk predicts a decrease in production in 2021 by 14-22%, capex growth by 19%
(added CEO comments in paragraphs 5-6, analysts' comments in paragraphs 9-10)

Moscow. March 31. INTERFAX - Petropavlovsk (MOEX: POGR) expects production in 2021 at 430-470 thousand ounces of gold, including 370-390 thousand ounces from its own raw materials and 60-80 thousand ounces from purchased concentrate, the company said.
This implies a 14-22% reduction in total production by 2020.
At Pioneer, Petropavlovsk expects, production will increase due to higher grades and the commissioning of a flotation plant (the company maintains a plan to launch it by the end of the second quarter). At Albyn, production will decline due to lower recoveries as a result of a switch to processing ore from the nearby Elga deposit. Malomyr's production in terms of volumes, grades and extraction will generally be at the level of the results of 2020.
At the same time, production from third-party raw materials is expected to fall 2-2.7 times due to a decrease in available concentrate volumes and lower grades in purchased concentrate. Management difficulties in 2020 led the company to miss the contracting period to purchase sufficient concentrate for 2021, adds Petropavlovsk.
“Last year we bought concentrate both in Russia and in Kazakhstan. And in Russia we bought rich concentrate, it was 100 g / t. Because of the changes in the company last year, some suppliers either reduced (volumes - IF) or did not contract with us for this year. Therefore, this year we have a significant drop in the volume of concentrate, its quality, and content. And this, in fact, is the only reason why we give such low guidance - because we do not have enough external concentrate, - Denis Aleksandrov, CEO of Petropavlovsk told Interfax. In the fourth quarter, our POX is reaching full capacity.Throughout the year, in general, our processing at POX is growing - mainly due to our own concentrate. "
“We are now working very actively in order to conclude new contracts, we are even trying to buy Greek concentrate, in general, we are trying exotic things, - added Aleksandrov. - But so far, all this is in the process, so we cannot say how successful we will be this year. But next year, I am sure, we will conclude contracts by September-October, and POX will be fully loaded next year. "
Capex Petropavlovsk in 2021 may increase by 19%, to $ 140 million from about $ 118 million in 2020.
Including capex for development and maintenance is planned at the level of $ 120 million (of which about half will go to the completion of the construction of flotation at Pioneer and the third flotation line at Malomyr), for geological exploration - about $ 20 million.
"Petropavlovsk's production and capex forecast for 2021 is in line with our estimates," VTB Capital analysts conclude. The expansion of flotation at Malomyr, they note, implies some delay (now the launch of the third line is planned in the third quarter of 2022, earlier it was about the first quarter), but this has already been taken into account in the estimates. Of greatest interest, according to analysts, is now the forecast of Petropavlovsk's costs, which may be negatively affected by lower recoveries and grades at Albyn. VTB Capital itself predicts an increase in cash costs (TCC) Petropavlovsk by 14% in 2021, to $ 951 per ounce, total cash costs (AISC) - by 8%, to $ 1,340.
Renaissance Capital believes that Petropavlovsk's 2021 outlook is "a little disappointing," but the corporate governance update published in parallel is "encouraging." The company said the new leadership is looking for opportunities to simplify the corporate structure, improve governance, standardize processes, and reduce G&A costs. The analysis has already resulted in cost savings through revised procurement and contracting procedures. The completion of the management restructuring is expected by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. And in the third quarter, Petropavlovsk plans to publish a new medium-term development strategy, after which a dividend policy will be proposed. In parallel, KPMG is investigating some of Petropavlovsk's transactions, and the audit is expected to be completed by the end of the second quarter.
Petropavlovsk conducts industrial development of gold deposits in the Amur Region, closes the top three of Russian gold miners. The largest shareholder of Petropavlovsk with a share of about 24% is UGK, which is controlled by the family of Konstantin Strukov.

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[officehead] 05/4/2021 08:10

Petropavlovsk may advance in the sale of a stake in IRC
Moscow in 2021 . March 31. INTERFAX - Gold miner Petropavlovsk (MOEX: POGR) continues to work on the sale of a stake in the iron ore company IRC, progress is possible this year, Petropavlovsk CEO Denis Aleksandrov told Interfax.
However, he noted, the main goal of Petropavlovsk is not to sell the stake as such, but to get rid of the guarantee that Petropavlovsk provides to IRC under the obligation to Gazprombank (MOEX: GZPR) (at the end of 2020, the IRC's debt to Gazprombank was $ 202 million).
"The first goal of all these negotiations for us is to get rid of the guarantee. If this requires selling our share, we are ready to sell, and we are actively promoting this project," Aleksandrov explained.
A buyer who cannot provide a cancellation of the warranty, Petropavlovsk is not eligible. "Any buyer who wants to buy IRC must come either with their own guarantee, which will be accepted by Gazprombank, or with their own bank, which GPB will simply refinance," the head of the gold miner explained.
Last spring, Petropavlovsk announced that it had signed a preliminary agreement with the Stocken Board investment company to sell a 29.9% stake in IRC for $ 10 million (Petropavlovsk owns a total of 31.1%). However, there has been no news of the deal since then. Aleksandrov noted that the buyer has not gone anywhere, moreover, new applicants have appeared for the asset.
IRC is the only iron ore producer in the Russian Far East.
Petropavlovsk conducts industrial development of gold deposits in the Amur Region, closes the top three of Russian gold miners. The largest shareholder of Petropavlovsk with a share of about 24% is UGK, which is controlled by the family of Konstantin Strukov.

Financial and Economic Information Service

[officehead] 05/4/2021 08:08

Petropavlovsk can modernize Albyn or build a new factory for refractory raw materials from Elga
Moscow. March 31. INTERFAX - Petropavlovsk (MOEX: POGR) actually brought the processing of non-refractory ore from the new Elginskoye deposit to full capacity, and for further processing of refractory, unoxidized ore, the company is considering modernizing Albyn or building its own factory on Elga.
"This year, 100% of the Albynskaya plant is loaded from the Elga deposit. Therefore, from the point of view of ore mining and processing, Elga is working, one might say, at full capacity. That is, 3.6 million tons this year we process exactly Elga ore - ore that is suitable for cyanidation. Ore that is not suitable for cyanidation, we stockpile, because it is mined in parallel. unoxidized ore, "Denis Aleksandrov, CEO of Petropavlovsk, told Interfax.
Petropavlovsk may decide on plans for processing refractory ore from Elga by September.
"This year we must release to the market and make a final decision for ourselves what we are doing with this. There are preliminary decisions that are included in the plan, but we will now review them and either confirm or change, in general, somewhere by September it will be clear what we are doing with the unoxidized Elga ore "- said Aleksandrov.
The Elginskoye project is being implemented by the Temi company, in which Petropavlovsk owns 75%, and the remaining 25% belongs to Agestinia (businessman Sergey Stefanovich is considered its beneficiary). Elga's production is 100% taken into account in Petropavlovsk's indicators, and there is no talk of sharing the profits from the project with a partner, Aleksandrov said.
"We show a 100% result on our own, since we have 75%, and 25% as a minority interest. Since there has been no profit so far on Elga, this is the first year of work, so far there are no talks on this matter (about the distribution of profits - IF ) was not. When the profit is formed, then we will communicate, "concluded Aleksandrov.
Petropavlovsk conducts industrial development of gold deposits in the Amur Region, closes the top three of Russian gold miners. The largest shareholder of Petropavlovsk with a share of about 24% is UGK, which is controlled by the family of Konstantin Strukov.

Financial and Economic Information Service

[officehead] 05/4/2021 08:07

Some updates via Russian sources
Petropavlovsk may return to the discussion of
Moscow's dividend policy in the second half of the year . March 31. INTERFAX - Gold miner Petropavlovsk (MOEX: POGR) may return to discussing dividend policy in the second half of this year.
According to the company, by the third quarter it plans to decide on a new medium-term corporate development strategy, after which a dividend policy will be proposed.
"I think we need to formulate a development strategy for the next 5-7 years, calculate capital expenditures for this development strategy, understand how we finance them, and then understand how much dividends and when we can pay," Denis, CEO Petropavlovsk, explained to Interfax Aleksandrov: “With all this, management understands that dividends have to be paid, so we will need to find the right balance between organic growth and dividend payments. I expect these conversations to begin in the second half of the year.”
Petropavlovsk in 2020 for the first time in a long time started talking about the possibility of paying dividends, at least began to discuss the introduction of a dividend policy. However, this process was interrupted by a corporate conflict.
Petropavlovsk conducts industrial development of gold deposits in the Amur Region, closes the top three of Russian gold miners. The largest shareholder of Petropavlovsk with a share of about 24% is UGK, which is controlled by the family of Konstantin Strukov.

Financial and Economic Information Service

[robertstronghand] 01/4/2021 18:37

I am open to a merger, on the right terms. You know the bottom is close when certain posters pop up, possible we could see another drop in to the low 1600s and a double bottom on the GDX around 31. Actually Petro is merely tracking the sector, also been adding Polymetal and very pleased to be buying in the 1400s. Gold prepays end of the year rather than mid year, interested to see what happens with TEMI, hopefully cash for that rather than below market price shares! Hope they take their time with the bond as they have already started discussions, things will look very different at the end of the year.

[undervaluedassets] 01/4/2021 07:48

Nice find Midas.

Right, confirms my surmises about UGC's intentions.

love this..

“As a manager, I would only welcome the merger of Petropavlovsk and Uzhuralzoloto Group of Companies because it would create the third-largest gold producer in Russia,” Alexandrov said in an interview. “But we have other tasks related to organic growth and for the next few years we’ll focus on that.”

What a mealy-mouthed, mendacious rascal.

The new CEO is a UGC lapdog clearly.

Formerly Strukov said he was just a simple shareholder looking forward to collecting his dividends. It was suspected to be a lie when he said it . And now we know it was lie.

The rest of the Yahoo report on POG .. Well... it speaks for itself doesn't it? Awful

[midasx] 31/3/2021 18:54

Petropavlovsk’s New CEO Emphasizes Growth Over Merger With UGC

[stevea171] 31/3/2021 10:11

Another lost year whilst the 'kitchen sinking' for the new CEO and management continues.

The outlook in mid 2020 could not have looked brighter. This has been replaced by 'jam tomorrow'.
A wrecking ball has been taken to the company since in the name of efficiency but the complete opposite is all that can be observed as everything has gone backwards.

Strukov will be contacting his bankers and down sizing the loan amount he needs them to pony up to take out POG shareholders here.

btw. Where are FY 2020 results or have the auditors gone awol/resigned/down with Covid?

[undervaluedassets] 31/3/2021 09:30

I am really sorry folks you are being softened up for lots of disappointment.

A very subtle update with lots to be cautious about.

less 3rd party concentrate due to "management disruption". What does that even mean? I do not like that at all.

And 3rd party concentrate with lower grades than expected. "lower concentrate grades" means POG has knowingly (or perhaps even unknowingly) bought bags of dirt with less gold in them than they would like. Brilliant (!??!)

Also the decline in the gold price means that POG will wish it had bought it's 3rd party concentrate (bags of dirt containing less gold than they would have liked) NOW rather than in the past. They will have - with the collapse in the price of gold - have paid far too much for said concentrate.

By prepaying for these bags of 3rd concentrate in the past POG effectively find themselves on the wrong side of a hedge position on the price of gold. Prepaying like this IS a hedging strategy 'gone wrong' with the price of gold plunging as it is .

"In parallel with the management review and as previously announced, KPMG LLP ("KPMG") is conducting a separate forensic audit into certain related-party and other transactions undertaken by the Company and IRC Ltd, the 31.1%-owned iron ore miner listed in Hong Kong, in the three years to August 2020."

How is this even helpful? leave the past in the past. Aside from being a waste of money paying KPMG their huge fees this is quite utterly pointless. Candidly this is Strukov looking for skeletons and serves his turn very well. He wants to "key his own car" so that he can pick up the whole thing on the cheap and take it into his empire.

The other thing to say is that it is clear that from conventional mining that POG is pulling less and less gold out of the ground each year.

Lastly lots of things to do with gold production are "expected to be lower" int this report apart from Capex which is expected to be higher. That is not a happy combination.

No wonder the company trumpets cost-cutting and reducing the headcount.

This management update and guidance is an 'empty bag' effectively. In fact, I would go so far as to say
that this is a profit warning in embryo

[midasx] 31/3/2021 08:45

It seems like Denis and his new team have hit the ground running. Costs savings already achieved with a full restructure in process.

Completion of the new flotation plant by the end of the second quarter is key to increasing gold production from our own much more profitable refractory ore going forward.

Outlining a future dividend policy would suggest the new board are not intent on driving down the share price to allow a cheap takeover.

Would be good to hear they have hedged some gold production going forward.

[undervaluedassets] 29/3/2021 13:21

All I wanted was for you to respond to what I said about POG.

You still can little man. .

[midasx] 29/3/2021 12:41

Calm down UVA, you will give yourself a coronary, obviously I have hit a nerve!

You are now on filter, so de-ramp away.

[undervaluedassets] 29/3/2021 12:01

Instead of addressing my points...

Midas:- "My timing on the purchase of Rolls-Royce is better than your timing of your purchase of Rolls-Royce." and "I do not wish you well".

How old are you .. 12?