Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[mirabeau] 18/6/2019 14:10

She's taken off

[mirabeau] 18/6/2019 14:07

We have a pretty persistent DMA bidder on the order book

2 v 2 (113k v 60K)

[rochdae] 18/6/2019 14:04

£300 market cap is ridiculously cheap for a company generating 670 million and trading at 50% below Nav. With costs reducing to around $900 you're looking at profit of around 200 million. IRC stake worth around $60 million...

Wonder who the 3rd party is for autoclaves 5 and 6. Polymetal perhaps? Together they would be the dominant processor in the whole of Russia and part of China..

[juju44] 18/6/2019 13:58

Am luvin it

[rochdae] 18/6/2019 13:55

Something definitely was said yesterday at the site visit imo...

[davidlloyd] 18/6/2019 12:58

5 year breakout. Nice.

DL

[mirabeau] 18/6/2019 12:58

L2

3 v 1 (142K v 100K)

this is looking mighty strong

[juju44] 18/6/2019 12:14

Not me man. My tea leaves predicted this and I am jubilant

[rochdae] 18/6/2019 12:06

Multi-year breakout on the cards here...

Where are all the doomsters who said this was going back down along with gold?

[rochdae] 18/6/2019 11:43

What's interesting in the presentation is the 13 major refractory ore deposits in Russia. A clear statement of the future demand for POX.

I expect an announcement in the next few weeks on 3rd party contracts for autoclaves 3 and 4. I'm sure there would have been an indication in the visit on this. At the same time we'll get a revised gold production forecast, probably taking us over 500,000 oz. Up around 20% on last year.

POX still valued more than Pog's market cap.

As for the debt, it's only a problem if you can't service it. But Pog's revenue and FCF now accelerating rapidly.

Sentiment will only take you up or down for a short time. In the end it's cash that counts.

Pog's share of IRC up some 300% in value terms in 6 months, too.

[mirabeau] 18/6/2019 11:30

bought a few yesterday on what looks like a technical breakout though if it can break 10p then all bets are off. It's blue-sky from there


4 v 1 (103k v 56K) and there's no really not that much left on the offer

2 v 241k at 8.96 though these are from 9.45am

Someone's asking 21p for 130k!

[gilotron] 18/6/2019 11:26

Thanks @galeforce1 very interesting. If they can't raise enough to pay all the bond do you recon some deal could be struck to extend the timeframe or something?

[galeforce1] 18/6/2019 11:15

gilotron - my notes on the debt situation at POG:

$500m bond at 8.25% due Nov 2022

Convertible bond $100m at 9% due 18/3/20 (presumably this has dropped to $90m because there have been some conversions at the fixed price and exchange rate)

Guarantee on IRC debt of £124m

All beginning to look very manageable. With the share price higher than the fixed conversion price, the convertible bond will be mainly paid in shares.

IRC seems to be doing fine.

Nov 2022 is a long way out for the $500m bond.

[undervaluedassets] 18/6/2019 09:59

It's all about sentiment with this one. .

negative sentiment is like a supertanker - has enormous momentum and very slow to turn around .. negative sentiment has been dominant here for a decade .. but now ...

newsflow has turned positive here over the last year or so esp in view of the Pox and IRC.

it just needs sentiment to turn decisively and patient investors many finally .. blah blah etc etc ..

Another thing ..One wonders whether the annual site visit yesterday provided useful insghts for attendees that are provoking the tickle up in the share price yesterday and today.

[rochdae] 17/6/2019 22:17

gilotron,

Forward contracts to sell an aggregate of 133Koz of gold at an average price of US$1,252/oz are outstanding as at 24 April 2019.

So a reduction in hedging, which is good given gold now $100 higher.

Convertible was 100 million. Now reduced to 95 million in the last set of results.

[gilotron] 17/6/2019 21:17

'Gold hedging and forward sales

Forward contracts to sell an aggregate of c.200Koz of gold at an average price of US$1,252/oz remained outstanding as at 31 December 2018.'

[gilotron] 17/6/2019 21:16

Does anyone know how much of POG's gold sales are hedged these days? And the figure that's stated 568m as debt. Is that the 'convertable bonds' debt?

[rochdae] 17/6/2019 13:45

And IRC up another 6%. 62% fines over $110 per tonne with IRC at 97% capacity. Looking excellent for a reduction in debt and de-risking of POG's contingent liability.

[rochdae] 17/6/2019 13:39

Interesting that autoclaves 1-2 already treating secured 3rd party concentrate: 37Kt at 40-75g/t. And autoclaves 3 + 4 ready to treat.

But it's 2020 when things look juicy:

Autoclaves 1 - 4 treat:
Malomir concentrates: 125–145Kt at 29–32g/t
Pioneer concentrates: c.30Ktpa from Pioneer (at c.23%
sulphur) available from H2 2020(3)
3rd party concentrates: up to 200Kt (4-5 sources)

[davidlloyd] 17/6/2019 12:05

:-)

DL

[bambo1] 17/6/2019 12:05

Share price is gingerly moving in the right direction. Sshh

[rochdae] 17/6/2019 11:01

Nice presentation today. Everything on track. Looks like they are going to expand to 5-6 autoclaves with a 3rd party. A regional hub in the making ..

It's a mistake to see Pog as just a gold miner now. Turning into a tech company specializing in Gold processing.

[juju44] 17/6/2019 09:44

Following gold up .Techs look good for further move north

[mirabeau] 17/6/2019 08:51

3 v 1 (629k v 144k)

with a 500k buy order at 8.50