Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[bambo1] 18/4/2019 11:36

Wigwammer - Your guess is wrong, but you can have another 6 guesses if you like and I wager you will not guess right.

[wigwammer] 17/4/2019 19:16

I get the impression bambo sold near the lows, and is rather regretting his decision :)

[bambo1] 17/4/2019 16:27

Gold not looking good and the bottom might be a lot lower. Any chartist like to suggest a bottom figure?

[rochdae] 17/4/2019 14:48

Yes, casual47

That's a fair point on trust and confidence. The management nonsense hasn't helped either.

I wouldn't go near this company if it wasn't for the POX developments. Don't do mining generally. But POX can produce 200,000koz of low cost gold per year. In fact, if they sold off their mines and paid off debt they could probably make more profit with POX and still have a significantly higher share price.

Anyway, see what the results bring.

[casual47] 17/4/2019 13:18

I suspect the main issue with POG is one of trust and confidence, given the value destruction seen here. If they can deliver a solid performance for several quarters in a row you'll see confidence returning and an increasing share price with it. Most likely that will require a wee bit more time and come with the usual ups and downs to be expected from mining and macros such as gold price and sector sentiments.

I'm invested in a miner which might be a potential buyer of POG's assets so I'm mainly here to keep an eye on any scope for potential divestments. E.g. will they be selling off some mines to pay down debt and focus on POX. There was also the rumour, vigorously denied by POG, that POX was going to be put up for sale.

[bambo1] 17/4/2019 12:36

casual47 - Thanks for last post, it's good to see someone post details that are relevant and pertinent to the subject in hand. I get a little sick of the idiots that post fairy stories with the aim of misleading others with statements about how things might or might not be tomorrow. We all know what MIGHT happen tomorrow!

[rochdae] 17/4/2019 12:30

Yes, I'm aware of the debt but this is now under control from what I can see. POG's ebitda set to rise to nearly 300 million. Just received a payment of 60 million from IRC. It has a 55 million stake in IRC which it can sell. 270 million seems cheap to me.

POX is also a 400 million asset. Makes POG into a industrial processor/high tech company. Key differentiator to the other miners. POX would cost 600 million to build now.

Note broker targets are around 14p.

[casual47] 17/4/2019 12:04

No point comparing mcap without considering debt....

CEY has no debt and about $300m cash. HGM's net debt end of 2018 was about $180m.

Both CEY and HGM have been paying dividends, with HGM making solid dividends for nearly a decade (2018 total dividend nearly 14p, with shareprice currently at 170p that is VERY good)

POG's net debt is more than $500m and they stopped dividends in 2013......

[rochdae] 17/4/2019 12:00

Full year cost guidance was given in Q3 production RNS.

TCC: c.US$750 - 800/oz
AISC: c.US$1,050 - 1,100/oz

The point is that costs are coming down and will reduce further as refractory mining for the POX hub is less costly. Capex for example dropping from 108 million last year to 50 million this year.

Pog's business model is changing from a gold miner to a gold processor. That makes only 2 in Russia. Catalyst for the share price will be in the 3rd party POX contract which will boost production further.

Anyway, with IRC looking much stronger now and with improved cash flow and POX up and running Pog is no longer the dog. At 270 million market cap that looks cheap given 500,000koz gold production. CEY a billion on similar production and HGM 550 million on half POG'S production. Neither of those 2 have a POX facility.

[galeforce1] 17/4/2019 11:28

casual - thanks for that useful clarification re. AISC.

If the POX project is not included in the AISC figure that's significant.

[casual47] 17/4/2019 10:58

See:

Non-sustaining costs would be also e.g. a major project which is designed to increase production beyond 10%. So I presume the whole POX project is outside of AISC.

[casual47] 17/4/2019 10:20

AISC never contains tax. It's supposed to contain all the costs that need to be borne to sustain an existing mining operation. It doesn't include non-sustaining costs like exploration on new greenfield or certain corporate costs.

Correction: AISC does contain production tax but not e.g. income tax.

[edjge2] 17/4/2019 08:58

Yep bambo1, topped up yesterday. Powers that be seem to selling gold but when they go long should start a nice rally. Wait & topup some more IMO. Should change this co completely with negation of debt.

[bambo1] 16/4/2019 13:13

Jeff H - It's good that we are getting lots of positive news but it's a pity it is not yet affecting the share price.

I think due to the size of the debt this share price is not going to go anywhere, in spite of the IRC announcements until the gold price makes a positive move in the right direction. The main key to this company moving forward is reducing the debt by a sizeable amount and that needs a higher gold price.

[rochdae] 12/4/2019 14:18

Thanks Jeff

More good news from IRC. They will soon be in a much better financial position and be able to reduce debt. That alone should assist POG's debt guarantees.

POG itself along way from NAV. And with the debt rescheduled and POX in the mix I think we will move higher come results and the operations update.

Breaking out of a long-term range here, too.

[jeff h] 12/4/2019 13:50

Another positive announcement from IRC:-



Research available here:-

[midasx] 12/4/2019 13:14

About Polygon Global Partners LLP*
Polygon is a global investment firm founded in 2002. Our goal is the creation of investment alpha based on a disciplined, repeatable, research-driven process. Polygon is owned by TFG Asset Management.

Polygon Global Partners LLP
4 Sloane Terrace
London SW1X 9DQ
United Kingdom

T [phone]



Company % short Date changed
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 1.45% 10 Apr 2019
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 1.28% 3 Apr 2019
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 1.04% 2 Apr 2019
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 0.93% 1 Apr 2019
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 0.80% 28 Mar 2019
PETROPAVLOVSK PLC 0.74% 26 Mar 2019

Company Profile
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management
Sub-Industry: Investment Management
TFG Asset Management L.P. operates as an investment management firm. The Company offers portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies. TFG Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

Corporate Information
Address:
4 Sloane Terrace
London, SW1X 9DQ
United Kingdom
Phone: [phone]

[bambo1] 12/4/2019 09:02

10th April 2019 Polygon Global Partners have increased their short position on POG yet again.

I notice Polygon Global Partners are shorting POG at present and has just increased its short position yet again. Short position increased on 26th March and then again on 28th March, again on 1st April, again on 2nd April, again on 3 April, a little worrying to say the least. What do they know or see that no one on else on here is seeing.

[rochdae] 11/4/2019 16:50

Continuing to strengthen....

[midasx] 10/4/2019 07:52

We should now have received the additional $11 Million from IRC.

I doubt they will RNS this.

We have the full year results and Q1 production update in 2 weeks.

We had first Gold from POX autoclaves 1 and 2 in December with Autoclaves 2 and 3 due to complete in June which will allow processing of third party concentrate.

Exciting times and all moving in the right direction, apart from the share price.

[rochdae] 07/4/2019 12:22

bambo1,

My price points for comparison stem from when I bought into the company, which is a few days after the trading statement in Jan. It is you who are manipulating the dates for comparison by referring to July 2018. Why are you picking this date. Why not when it was 5p in October 2018?

It is becoming clear that you are probably a paid de-reramper of the stock who is now trying to scare holders by referring to a single company with a tiny short position and ignoring the significant purchase of a large Russian focussed fund.

I'm afraid I can't read your negative posts anymore and have now filtered you..

[bambo1] 06/4/2019 23:59

rochdae ............ You said in a post on the 15th March 2019.
"POG was 6p a few months ago now 8p. UUp 30% this year. Can see 10p post results if the story going forward is positive"


In July 2018 share price was 8p and now it is 8p = 0% gain over the last few months. What does that say about you.

I notice that all of your posts on here are positive, but to back up what you say, you are choosing the numbers you like rather than displaying all of the detail. Then you try to twist a negative comment into a positive.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, YOU may well be a person who is paid to post on here to try to ramp up the share price. In my opinion people who do what you appear to be doing should be blocked from posting.

I do agree with those people that post on here saying everything looks as if it is all starting to come together for this company, but I would never manipulate numbers to make things look better than they really are.

I for one do not want to read your manipulated version of the facts relating to the share price so you are now filtered out.

[rochdae] 06/4/2019 15:21

If you are a worrier you shouldn't be in this game.

I've always liked a few shorts in the mix. It means they have to buy back the same amount in the market.

Things coming together here with POG. IRC up 200% as is POG's holding. Big boys buying .... looking good to me.

[bambo1] 06/4/2019 10:59

Still a bit worrying that a financial com is betting and increasing their bet day by day that POG are going down.