Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[bambo1] 09/5/2019 16:41

Disposal of shares on 8th May 2019

Dr Alya Samokhvalova
Reason for the notification
Deputy Chief Executive Officer
Name Petropavlovsk PLC
Disposal of shares on 8th May 2019
Price(s) Volume(s)
8.391pence 827,776 shares


Not a good sign when the Deputy Chief Executive Officer is selling her shares in POG.

Dr Samokhvalova holds a Masters in Investment Management. She also holds a Professional Accountant Certificate from the Institute of Professional Accountants of Russia.

[bambo1] 08/5/2019 13:47

Gold is struggling to reach 1300 never mind 1370! We might need to delay any kind of lift-off until next year.

[rochdae] 07/5/2019 20:01

Gold looking perky. Break of 1370 will be liftoff if we get there.

[wigwammer] 07/5/2019 18:42

Strong RUB/USD will be helping pog on the cost side. Looking great :)

[lawrence thirteen] 07/5/2019 18:28

Trump has had the whole of the western establishment trying to destroy him. I'd have him over May anyday

[bambo1] 07/5/2019 17:34

I have no argument with Trump, he was the better of the two bad candidates for the job I believe.

[lawrence thirteen] 07/5/2019 17:27

bambo1 Blame Trump he has the US economy roaring

[rochdae] 07/5/2019 16:31

Nice bit of strength here on a red day in the markets.

3rd party contracts just a few weeks away...

[bambo1] 07/5/2019 13:25

It's a little worrying that the dollar has been steadily getting stronger for the last 12 months which is not good for the price of gold. Lets hope that gold dealers don't notice.

[wigwammer] 06/5/2019 18:29

If they generate $100m AND the bonds convert, net debt will fall to $350m and this will look an entirely different proposition. Even with 430m shares in issue against the current 335m, the market cap appears very low for a company generating $250m+ ebitda with falling capex and interest charges. I can see this around 40p post dilution within 2 years. IMO DYOR :)

[rochdae] 06/5/2019 13:25

Success of POX is crucial for POG. It effectively doubles the life of their mines while reducing the cost of production. And there is a turnaround in other ways. First gold production is set to rise 20% this year with Q1 production already ahead of forecast. 3rd party contracts will see upgrades to this. These contracts will be announced before the June commissioning of autoclaves 3 and 4.

Second, the IRC burden is much reduced given the rise in the price of iron ore and the move to full production. With the completion of the bridge in Oct costs will reduce to $43 with sales at $90 per tonne .. gives income of $150 million on 3 million tonnes. They should easily be able to pay interest and reduce net debt on those figures.

POGs debt is down to 550 million. They are confident of having the money to avoid conversion next year. They also have 55 million equity stake in IRC, which they can sell.

Management is now secure. That was unnerving investors.

Finally, gold is reasonably stable around 1280. It's been range bound for years. If anything with a slight upward trajectory.

Anyway, at just £270 million market cap generating revenues of $650 million the investment case from here seems positive, which is why the share price is going up....!

[casual47] 06/5/2019 10:55

Even with the dilution and taking into account debt (reduced by $100m if fully diluted) this could hit 20p+, in a few years, if the market has reason to believe they have turned the ship around and are performing to full potential.

It would be very rare for bondholders to convert. If they do it would, imo, only be a small percentage.

So the question really is, can they turn the ship around and make POX a profitable business this year?

If yes, then they will have no trouble finding debt providers ready to refinance at much better terms.

[gersemi] 06/5/2019 10:53

Dilution is baked in anyway. if the company issues a convertible bond then the market's already priced-in (discounted) the conversion into the current price. You have ALREADY been diluted irrespective of the date and price of conversion

Wig - That's one way of looking at things!

[uquilp] 06/5/2019 10:39

I am fairly happy with progress at present although I am concerned about the recurring underground water problem at pioneer.
I wonder whether the share price is being held back by the situation relating to the $100m bonds due for redemption 18/3/20.
These bonds were issued on necessarily good terms in 2015 with 9% interest and a conversion rate to shares of 8.26p.
It seems to me that if the share price were to rise substantially above 8.26p and the bondholders exercised their conversion option, it would result in a dilution for existing shareholders.

[wigwammer] 06/5/2019 10:18

"debt is the cancer that eats away at the equity of any business.." it's also the reason you can buy a share in pog at 8p rather than 38p :)

[gersemi] 06/5/2019 10:09

POG's fundamentals are improving - big tick
POG's chart looks like it's yearning to burst upwards (look at last week's price action and those fat candles) though wait for buys above 9-10p region on increased volume to confirm - big tick
if only POG could attack that debt - that really would put a ROCKET under the equity value contained within the business...debt is the cancer that eats away at the equity of any business though at least POG used their indebtedness productively

I cannot now see a heavy seller on the book but then my L2 readings can be a tad misguided at times and we can never truly 'see' what is happening inside the heads of stock-market players and heavy investors

[wigwammer] 06/5/2019 09:57

Yes, I'm happy with an average of 6p. Tamesis had a 14p target then too. The pessimists have cost people money so far this year :)

[1smallfry] 05/5/2019 20:38

well , i'm happy enough with my average at just under 7p

[bambo1] 05/5/2019 19:05

Tamesis also had a 85p price target on Capital Drilling in May 2017 when their share price was 59.25p. Capital Drilling is now 47.10p.

[rochdae] 04/5/2019 22:53

Don't worry juju44,

I filtered bambo1 he/she is a paid deramper so I assume it's much of the same...

Still been a good week. And the leaves are indeed pointing up..

[juju44] 04/5/2019 20:52

Settle down ffs . Leaves say its going up . Nuff said

[bambo1] 04/5/2019 17:57

Tamesis also had a 60p price target on Alphamin Resources in 2017 when their share price was 35p. Alphamin Resources is now 27p.

[bambo1] 04/5/2019 17:55

Tamesis also had a £1.10 price target on Prairie Mining in 2017 when their share price was 34p. Prairie Mining is now 19p.

[bambo1] 04/5/2019 17:48

Tamesis also had a 14p price target in 2017 and maybe even earlier that that, I suppose if they keep saying it eventually they might be right.