Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 16/6/2019 20:06

I agree retail investors are interested in shinier investments and industries elsewhere. Which is why I'm sceptical about the existence of "all these gold bugs getting themselves in a lather..." I'm sure exuberant gold bugs exist, I'm just not sure they exist in the numbers you suggest. One of several reasons I own POG. I'm happy to stick this out for the long term - I think with pox established, debt extended, valuation subdued, and the scepticism about gold as an investment, this appears a decent place to be.

[casual47] 16/6/2019 19:52

The consensus, imo, is not that people are sceptical about the goldprice but rather that almost nobody in the retail segment is interested in gold or gold stocks because there are far shinier stock categories out there to keep PIs occupied, like the Bitcoin space (wrongly, imo). II also are reluctant to advance money to develop gold mine projects. If you look at the portfolios of the ultra rich you will see very little gold in them (unless they happen to be Russian oligarchs who own the mines).

The reason I'm mainly invested in gold miners is because the sector is hugely undervalued because of this lack of interest and even with gold staying in its 6-year range there is good money to be made both in holding and trading. While there are still cowboy outfits a lot of the miners have learnt from past excesses and are on the ball with regards to management, cost control and ESG.

This means that, as you have pointed out, the margins are very good even at $1200/oz.

The yearly gold average, with one exception, has been going up in the last few years. I expect that to continue. Though slower than perhaps you do, Wig.

[wigwammer] 16/6/2019 19:33

You are weary of people who believe pog will spike. You are sceptical about their view. To repeat - that is a consensual view. I doubt the readership of kingsworldnews is quite what it was 10 years ago. IMO the more interesting observation is how few gold bulls there are around, and how abundant the cynics. As for an opinion on pog being superfluous - given the high gross margin and financial leverage here, I would guess a +/- $100 movement in pog moves the long term valuation here by +/- 10p. Quite an important driver to overlook, IMO. ATB :)

[rochdae] 16/6/2019 19:28

90% in gold miners when you think gold is going down to previous lows. Sounds an odd strategy but good luck.

Only got POG and that's because of POX and the turnaround story otherwise I wouldn't go near ...

Still think gold will do well these next few years. But commodities always bite you in the bum at some point.

[casual47] 16/6/2019 16:30

The more accurate word would be 'weary', as in tired of the 'boom! Breakout is close!'.

I'm still waiting for the $5000/oz and 'peak gold' we were promised ten years ago and just about every day since.

I have no idea how the Kingworldnews fanbase can maintain their gold cheerleading for so long and in the face of so much data to the contrary.

The dollar is unlikely to keep its strength. Whether that necessarily equates to a significantly higher gold price from here is a different matter. The 'conventional wisdom' on that has been proved wrong many times. Higher interest rates do not necessarily mean lower gold price, weaker dollar does not necessarily mean higher gold price. What matters is the perception of the financial system - is the system still in charge or not. If yes, goldprice rises should be muted, if no, gold prices could go crazy.

Here's an interesting contrarian look on it (making the case high interest rates are not necessarily bad for gold):

After all that this is still true:

The #1 factor which will influence the shareprice of POG this year is whether they deliver or not on their program to turn the company around. This should become clearer towards the end of the year.

In that sense: goldprice? shmoldprice!

[wigwammer] 16/6/2019 16:13

I never said otherwise. You are evidently cynical about people who believe the pog will rise from here. There is no shortage of people who share your view.

[casual47] 16/6/2019 15:44

More than 90% of my current shares portfolio is in gold miners.

It's not cynical to invest in goldies who can do well at current gold prices and even at $1000/oz.

[wigwammer] 16/6/2019 15:26

Casual - the current high number of gold cynics who get themselves in a lather about gold bugs is highly encouraging. ATB :)

[juju44] 15/6/2019 21:11

Edge of breakout

[rochdae] 14/6/2019 18:30

causal47,

Thanks for the advice but I've been doing this for almost 30 years.

I chose POG because of the turnaround story, and I've been bullish on gold for a while now. But the main reason is operational. Same with IRC. POG is undervalued at these levels. The debt has been overplayed, too.

I think POG will return to favour this year.

As for gold, this will only accelerate the turnaround.

[casual47] 14/6/2019 15:41

Rochdae, if you are waiting for a gold outbreak one way or another in order to make money then good luck.

Picking goldies who can turn a profit irrespective of the usual gold price range and/or who have potential for several rerate events based on fundamentals is my personal strategy.

Also, there is nothing wrong with parking money in a steady dividend generator like HGM, especially when the share price is at the bottom range (not the case now). Investing is not all about growth, a reliable income share with decade long history of bumper dividends is not to be sneezed at and part of a decent portfolio.

[rochdae] 14/6/2019 15:27

Point is casual47 that you need to make a call either way or you will be in an ever changing state of saying it's going up .. no it's going down sort of trader. In the world of indecision.. No money to be made there.

[casual47] 14/6/2019 15:15

Wig, there is a world beyond this thread....

[wigwammer] 14/6/2019 15:14

"All these gold bugs who get themselves in a lather over temporary buoyancy.." ??? I see little evidence of that here.

[casual47] 14/6/2019 15:11

If gold keeps its strength for more than a quarter there could be something interesting happening.

If it doesn't then it is just a repeat of what has happened many times before in the last six years or so, over and over and over again.

People do seem to have a short term memory....

All these gold bugs who get themselves in a lather over temporary buoyancy remind me a little of those kids back in the 80s thinking Shakin' Stevens was the best thing ever and completely being unaware of the existance Elvis....

[rochdae] 14/6/2019 14:59

Any comment on the gold price. Up again. Thought the views on here were that it would retrace as usual.

I see a major break of 1370 and then it could really fly.

POG gradually strengthening. Capital market day soon and then a trading update.

IRC flying ... ore over $100 at 97% production.

[wigwammer] 14/6/2019 12:25

Market down, pog up.Hurrah!

[edjge2] 14/6/2019 12:05

POG in a shallow up channel but as yet not broken from. Wait n see.

[greenelf] 14/6/2019 11:58

Volume up nicely today... fingers crossed..

[greenelf] 14/6/2019 11:57

Pog to break out ..now or ever!!??

[route1] 14/6/2019 04:32

What could have that been?

[bambo1] 13/6/2019 15:40

Yet again, the only share in my portfolio that is down today is this one, POG.

Someone didn't like something at the Annual General Meeting today.

[route1] 13/6/2019 05:31

We've all been here before,but this is the start of a new more stable and progressive environment both for POG and IRC....hopefully,just pray to the right G-d!!!

[officehead] 12/6/2019 17:17

With the AGM tomorrow, I hope there will be a positive update, to build upon the good IRC news issued this week. After 5 months of POX running they should now have a handle on the production costs and be clearer on the TCC of refractory ore processing. If Pioneer U/G is now mining the higher grades and third party POX concentrate has been sourced to cover the 2nd half then certainly an increase in annual production guidance is on the cards.
When the number crunchers in the city have enough details to get more confidence on future earnings then I believe we will get a long awaited re-rating .... think I have been here before!!

[bambo1] 12/6/2019 02:22

K&S Operated at 97% Capacity in the First Half of May, Vanadium Joint Venture Recommenced Operation

Petropavlovsk PLC (the "Company"), wishes to notify that IRC Limited ("IRC"), a producer and developer of industrial commodities in which the Company is a significant shareholder (31.1%), has today made an announcement regarding ramp-up progress at the K&S mine and also in relation to the recommencement of its vanadium joint venture with Jianlong Steel.

We just need gold to break upwards and we might see 9p plus. or am I dreaming!