Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[seangwhite] 21/5/2015 18:43

Well Monday is not a public holiday in Ireland so PD could be hard at work or standing by to take brokers calls after putting out the RNS to coincide with London's holiday.VGLTS

[woodpecker25] 21/5/2015 14:06

Cheer up toon - on a more positive note, at least it would be a good time to RNS bad news...

[thetoonarmy2] 21/5/2015 12:58

Our BOD will probably RNs on bank holiday monday knowing our luck!

[ravin146] 21/5/2015 12:21

this recent volume/price action seems like purely based on anticipation of news...going past the 5p level could be a signal for a breakout to 6p...early days though.

[kevjones2] 20/5/2015 23:14

Sean, you're not factoring in what every small and major investor can see as blindingly obvious - the price of oil's dramatic slump and the political situation in Russia. I don't care how much of a ramper I sound when I say that Petroneft has done remarkably well to be ONLY 25% down since the farmout. That is why we have not heard a whisper from any of the major stockholders, and the vast majority of smaller holders.

Besides which a clause in the farmout says that Oil India have the right to become the major operator of L61 should there be any changes at board level in the first three years. Ptr have had a couple of very decent RNSs this year from a schedule which so far has not even included their best prospects. They don't need to go after them yet because they have literally millions of pounds to spend. This money began a mid to longterm project from the day the farmout was signed regardless of whatever happened in the past.

Natlata stated they wanted 5 changes to the 7 person bod prior to the EGM last year. Other than state they support the drilling schedule and commitment of the Chairman to give regular updates, they have said absolutely nothing since. Why? Because like the vast majority of us they are happy with the progress since then. There is a plan in place and I, for one, am happy so far. I'd like a couple of more dynamic bod members but would they have got such a good farmout? Who knows? Anyway, be patient and let's see what tomorrow's RNS brings.

Edit: did I just say 'tomorrow's RNS'? I meant this week's RNS. Lol.

[seangwhite] 20/5/2015 21:44

Kev

When Natlata made that statement last year the PTR share price was circa 6.08p so as of now it is down approximately 25%.
I cannot see Natlata sitting back leaving a BOD in place which they believe and have stated publicly are not up to the job.
The change to a new drilling company was something Natlata pushed for and eventually achieved against the BODs previous stance.

I think it is going to be an interesting few months for all holders as something has got to be sorted out shortly with the BODs friction with its main shareholders.

Today's rise in the share price I believe will not be enough to stave off a long overdue shake up here.

VGLTA

[kevjones2] 20/5/2015 21:01

From an article in the Irish Independent after last year's AGM. Article was on 10/05/2014:

"Maxim Korobov told the Irish Independent that he intends to retain his stake in PetroNeft.
He supported the farm-out because the deal was "better than nothing given the condition of the company", he said.
The company has promised to bring wells into production, he said. However, if the situation at PetroNeft continues as it has been the share price will fall again. Natlata will increase its stake if that happens, boosting its ability* to demand change, he said."

Natlata may not have increased their holding but Maxim's Italian buddy has. The Ptr bod will know this too. It is in everyone's interest for Ptr to succeed.

* It is very interesting that one of Oil India's conditions for agreeing to the farmout was that there would be NO change to the bod despite the bod requesting a vote on the matter.

[ravin146] 20/5/2015 20:25

Db has prob got that spot on...as much as I'd like seismic results...looks like q3.

[kevjones2] 20/5/2015 17:39

No worries, Ravin. 20/30p would be what I would imagine to be the ultimate share price and years away unless Ptr hit a gusher! I'd settle for much less. Maybe 7/8p by year end if all goes well.

Sean, regarding an RNS release in the days preceding a Bank Holiday weekend. Firstly, I don't think it matters a toss when an RNS is issued. If someone wants to invest £10,000 or even £1,000 in a stock they're not going to change their minds because the next week only has 4 working days. Secondly, the investors who watch the markets do not switch off or stop paying attention to the media because of a Bank Holiday weekend or more relevantly to your post because of the run-up to a Bank Holiday weekend so dissemination of the news is all the same. Thirdly, as I have mentioned before, these RNSs are updates on operations - they are not 'huge' news. DBarron has summarised what to expect in this RNS and I wouldn't be surprised if it contains less information!

With regard to Natlata, they categorically stated after the votes last year that they will now fully support the bod. You refer to their 'current impasse'? Where are you getting this from? Seriously, it's very possible I missed a statement from them or something because as far as I know they made no other announcements after the voting other than to say they will support Ptr. Natlata (unless I've missed something) are a major shareholder in a company that has the money to exploit proven resources.

Anyway, I must do a search for Korobov's post-vote comments. Haven't time right now. Gla.

[steelwatch] 20/5/2015 17:28

Db - we are in broad agreement on managing expectations of the contents of the next update. Anything over and above what you and I (#28338) have said, (without any collusion whatsoever), would be pure bonus.

[ravin146] 20/5/2015 17:08

Db cheers. Kev I didn't see you response until now. I was saying that jokingly no harness intended. My model tells me 20-30p! ;)

[dbarr0n] 20/5/2015 16:56

ravin..
All we can expect in the next lot of news is..
Production figure for Arb 108
T-5 workover is complete and cable replaced, maybe back on production if they can still truck the oil out.
T-101 horizontal well has been spudded.
Construction of the Tungolskoye to Lineynoye pipeline complete.
Results from the Sib 373 delineation well.
Lineynoye L-10 horizontal well has been spudded.

So I wouldn't be expecting any increases in bopd till the new pipeline has been pressure tested and put into operation next month.

[seangwhite] 20/5/2015 16:46

Db

Nice to see you back posting as I think the next few months could see a bit of action in PTR.If someone wants to make a move on PTR this window of opportunity might close fairly quickly if the horizontal well strategy start to show promise.

Anyway as a long term holder its good to see that some of the other 'veterans' are still arround.

VGLTA

[ravin146] 20/5/2015 16:28

Db...hope it wasn't me...three things I want like all I assume...increased bopd, followed by no temporary well closures, seismic results(soon) and interest in this stock to be back!

[tens machine] 20/5/2015 16:21

Tis a bit perky today and volume out of the blue.....perhaps

[dbarr0n] 20/5/2015 16:21

Sean I am here, not gone anywhere..
Just laughing at some of the rubbish being posted here.
I have not been posting because there has been little to talk about, we all know whats happening on the ground and are awaiting results, some of which we may get tomorrow and others are more likely to be next month.

[oilretire] 20/5/2015 16:04

Price/volume picking up perhaps suggests Thursday news is a good call......?

[seangwhite] 20/5/2015 11:48

KevTuesday and Thursday are favoured by the old boys at PTR and if tomz it will sadly be lost in the run up to a long weekend in London. You could not plan for any worse a time to disseminate good news!Db has now been away from the BB for sometime I hope this is not an omen of bad news to follow.Natlata must also be thinking of a way out of their current impasse as unless they make a full bid they are passengers on the good ship PTR with the same old Captain and crew steering arround 'icebergs'VGLTA

[kevjones2] 20/5/2015 00:23

Sean, see below a post I made last week:

"I don't know if any of you recall around 13 months ago when I said a very good source informed me an RNS was coming out the following day. As I did not name the source some were understandably sceptical. That RNS duly arrived the following day. Anyway, I asked the source just now if any news was forthcoming. He replied that he had hoped for this week but it will be next week. I asked if that was a 'definite' and he laughed and said he advised a couple of inquirers last week that there 'should' be an RNS this week so nothing is ever definite. He added that at this moment in time he saw no reason why an RNS would not be issued next week. I think he was being overly cautious and there will be an RNS next week.

The conversation was brief but it was good-humoured so I then asked him could he tell me if the news was good or bad or what. His reply went something like this: " Hehe, well,...em...there's nothing bad." To me, it sounded very like a run of the mill update with some positivity but no negativity. We'll see."

That's the extent of my knowledge , Sean. I believe him when he says he could see no reason for the RNS not to be issued this week. Given that the RNS must have been just about ready, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it came out tomorrow (Wednesday) although if memory serves me correctly (which it probably doesn't) don't Ptr usually issue RNSs on Thursdays? Regardless, I just expect more of an update on how things are progressing rather than anything major. I think the more important RNSs will be in Q3 and Q4.

[seangwhite] 19/5/2015 23:23

KevAny news coming this week it is now two months since the last missiveVGLTA

[kevjones2] 19/5/2015 22:23

Oh my. Just read my reply to Ravin. A bit narky is me. Apologies for the way I expressed myself but the answer is the same although I could have put it more courteously.

[kevjones2] 19/5/2015 22:06

Ravin, companies' sps very seldom reflect their actual value. As you stated ptr's market value is 10/11p and the share price is sitting around 4.3/4p now. Likewise, when (if) these reserves go into production it does not mean share price will only rise to the precise market value of said reserves. Some companies with no production at all yet are valued at 2/3/4/5p. There are countless companies overvalued and undervalued because we are dealing with something that no mathematical model can put a figure on - human beings' action.

Ask yourself how Ptr's share price reached 75p a few years ago when the market reserve value was considerably less. When you have the answer to that tell me what mathematical model applied. There is none and if you didn't bridle so often at any hint of positivity by other posters you wouldn't be asking such a stupid question.

What mathematical models were used in the past by various brokerages which all came up with different sps? Which one was the right model? As it turns out none of them. So less of the faux-sincere questions about mathematical models when almost everyone who invests in the stock market knows there is no mathematical model that can calculate future political and economic crises or booms, and almost as importantly no mathematician to my knowledge can estimate sentiment.

Ask me the question in a genuine way and I might answer you.

[ravin146] 19/5/2015 17:31

Kev, 20-30p, which mathematical model did you use to get to that level? The last market value of reserves was 10-11p?!With much dilution, getting to 10-11p will take something to get there.As for time, gains/losses, age, current position, cashflow, risk level, volatility, growth/value etc? All investors must consider this.