Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 13/1/2015 11:32

Nothing anyone can do about it until oil price is sorted which could take many, mmany months. Even a stunning RNS is unlikely to compete with market sentiment towards oilies. Tbh, I think Ptr did well to stay above 4p for so long when all around are being much worse hit than it.

I think I can add another 12 months on to my hoped-for share price 6 months at best.

[granto2] 13/1/2015 11:22

me too spudders, its very annoying. I don't mind breaking even, but hemorrhaging money is sickening

[spudders] 13/1/2015 10:46

💸💸💸 there goes more of my money down the pan. Frustrating times.

[ravin146] 12/1/2015 11:48

I don't care about the Oil price yet, market forces will send this back up, maybe at a new level other than 100, but certainly above 60.

Nevertheless, we are due news within the next few weeks according to the last RNS, for t-5. Let's hope we get at least 300-400, anything below, and we are heading to 3p

[granto2] 12/1/2015 11:03

a 33% differential? I'll take the conservative figure, with an upside potential

[loganair] 12/1/2015 10:29

MOSCOW, January 12. The average price of Russia’s Urals oil blend declined by 9.5% in 2014 to $97.60 per barrel, leading expert of the Finance Ministry’s Tax, Customs and Tariff Policy Department Alexander Sakovich said on Monday.

In 2013, the average price of Russia’s Urals blend stood at $107.88 per barrel.

The Urals price fell by 44.4% in December 2014 from the previous year to $61.07 per barrel.

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry expects an oil price at $80 per barrel in 2015 while the Finance Ministry predicts an oil price of $60 per barrel this year.

[ravin146] 11/1/2015 16:51

Good articles Logan...hope your sub 4p?! investment reaps rewards!

[seangwhite] 09/1/2015 18:55

Thanks Logan a good article for the BB

[granto2] 09/1/2015 11:14

There is no closed period. That said Warren Buffet asked Steve Jobs the same question 5 years ago and Jobs said he wasn't buying but considered the shares good value. so while its better to see directors buying, it's not essential. But yeah, buy some shares guys.

[crudde99] 08/1/2015 23:46

Well re. any director buying any notable amount of shares in the co. it's been a closed period for a hell of a long time now..!! The last time directors purchased shares in PTR was during a share placing in OCT 2012...!!!! DF purchased the most 1000,000 shares at 5p amounting to £50,000... It's been a long closed period now, over 2 years..?????

[paulmurphy777] 08/1/2015 22:08

Would we know of a closed period?

[crudde99] 08/1/2015 20:33

I wonder if any of our impoverished co. directors have made a new year resolution to purchase a single 4p share in the very company that they themselves run and the same co. that pays their (considering where they have taken the share price to) over the top salaries...?? Even at 4p they obviously don't see a shred of value in Ptr... Yet they expect others to invest here... These guys get full marks for sending out all the wrong messages...????

[steelwatch] 08/1/2015 12:34

In the short term, U.S. oil production is set to continue rising because there is still a backlog of wells waiting for fracturing crews and completion after the record drilling during the first ten months of 2014.

In North Dakota, for example, there were around 650 wells waiting on completion services at the end of October 2014 because drillers had outpaced completion crews, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources.

As these wells are completed, there will be a significant increase in reported output because newly completed wells yield extremely high rates of production in the first few days and months after starting to flow.

But as the backlog is cleared, production will plateau and then start to fall, as new drilling and completions fails to keep up with the declining output from older wells.





Bakken rigs slow as prices drop

[dbarr0n] 08/1/2015 12:10

RC, its from money week.


John Stepek forgets to mention that Oil is not exactly like supermarket stock,
as it cant be replaced.

[loganair] 08/1/2015 12:05

I wish it was mine, sent to my e-mail. I am however in full agreement with the article.

I have a very small investment in PTR (bought sub 4p), the smallest in my portfolio, I am willing to wait and be patience to see how the oil price goes with the possibility of jumping in with one or both feet some time in the future.

[rcturner2] 08/1/2015 11:34

superb post logan, is it your analysis or taken from somewhere else?

[loganair] 08/1/2015 11:26

Oil prices are continuing their epic slide. Brent crude even dipped below the $50 a barrel mark yesterday.

This is the sort of catastrophic price plunge that makes lots of investors nervy. Their brains are still ‘anchored̵7; to the pre-crash price. Regardless of what logic tells them, they still think oil is ‘worth’ $100 a barrel.

So they’re watching a drop like this and thinking: “There are potential bargains here and I might miss them. I need to DO SOMETHING!!!”

You might recognise this behaviour in yourself. I know I do. I’m only human, after all.

But don’t fret. There will be big opportunities in the oil sector. But you’ll have plenty of time to pick them up.

In the meantime, relax – prices could be falling for a while yet. Here’s why…

The oil price wars aren’t that different to the supermarket price wars:

The last oil price crash was all about global demand. When the credit crunch hit home in late 2008, oil plunged from a high of nearly $150 a barrel to a low of around $30 in the course of six months. That was largely because global trade had seized up – it was very much a result of liquidity being sucked out of every facet of the financial system.

This oil price crash is entirely different. Slowing demand – primarily from China – has played a role. But as I’ve noted before, it’s more about supply. US shale has added a significant new source of oil, and it has also arguably suffered from over-investment due to cheap-money fuelled enthusiasm.

So if there is – in effect – too much oil being produced, why won’t the producers just stop making it? It seems the obvious solution.

But that’s actually a daft question if you think about it. We only ask it about oil because we’re used to the idea that it’s a market controlled by a cartel.

It’s like saying that Tesco’s best response to the threat from Aldi and Lidl would be to stop selling anything. After all, the grocery market is clearly over-supplied. Knocking out the biggest supermarket chain in Britain would show those greedy, demanding consumers who was boss, eh?

But in reality, of course, it would hand control of the market to Tesco’s rivals, and Tesco would rapidly go bust. The correct long-term strategy is to spend what it takes to slash prices, improve service, and hope your pockets are deep enough and your offer attractive enough to put the other guy out of business. Your shareholders might not be too happy about it – it means falling profits, one way or the other – but that’s what happens when an industry hits a point of chronic oversupply.

The same logic applies to oil, believe it or not. That’s why Saudi Arabia keeps saying – in slightly hurt tones, I feel – “why should we be the ones to cut production?” Why should they give up market share to Russia and US shale and all the other producers, particularly when they are the guys who are best-placed to survive any price war?

You can’t give oil away for free. But we’re not there yet:

But surely there comes a point where falling prices just aren’t sustainable? Companies can’t go selling oil at a loss and survive for long, and investors aren’t going to fund big new projects if there’s no hope of generating a return.

That’s all true. And as the commodity team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) points out, the drop in oil prices will stop some projects from going ahead. But in terms of arresting the fall in prices, that’s not enough.

You need production to fall. And the price hasn’t yet fallen far enough to justify shutting down existing oil production.

Why? Because “operating cash costs” – which is basically what it costs to get the oil out of the ground, or from under the sea, or extracted from the tar sands – are below $40 a barrel for most sources. In fact, judging by a chart of costs, it’s really only North Sea production that comes under threat at these prices.

So most wells remain profitable even with the oil price down by half. That means producers will continue to pump oil, and maybe even pump harder to try to compensate for the fall in price by an increase in volume.

It’s not time to pile into the oil sector:

BoAML reckons Brent could go as low as $40 a barrel. Of course, that’s a figure plucked from the air – six months ago every oil analyst in the sector would have laughed you out of the room if you’d accurately forecast that oil would be trading at today’s prices come the start of 2015. But it’s certainly not out of the question.

I wouldn’t be keen to start shorting oil from here, simply because the potential reward doesn’t really outweigh the risks. If you’re already holding a profitable short position, I’d hang on to it. But have a level in mind at which you’ll take those profits if it rebounds.

But nor would I be piling into oil-related plays just yet. If you’re still feeling jittery and eager for action, just remember that you don’t have to catch the absolute bottom in these things to make money.

Another point is that despite the falls, oil is not necessarily a contrarian bet yet. Steve Sjuggerud of the Daily Wealth newsletter in the US notes that one of the key exchange-traded funds in the sector now has more shares outstanding than ever before. That means investors are piling in (which necessitates the creation of more shares). So the sector is not exactly hated.

[granto2] 08/1/2015 10:07

It would be good if PYR gave us a financial plan based on the the current oil price and made it clear if it was worth pursuing oil there at these levels. DF said they had good economics at $70 a barrel and possibly $60 a barrel. but how the figures crunch now. I wonder?

[dbarr0n] 08/1/2015 00:57

Steel.. I would suggest that Petroneft should be increasing capex not reducing it, He said its a good time to be spending on capex, he said the Rupee / Dollar exchange rate had gone from the low 30s when the farm out was done to the high 40s at the time of the conference. Well now its above 60.
So if it was a good time then its a better time now.

Oil prices cant and wont stay down, in my opinion OPEC are playing a cat and mouse game with non OPEC members.
OPEC say they are not the cause of the over supply so wont cut output and want non OPEC members to cut output which would rise oil prices for them and keep their output numbers.

Both are hurting, its just a case of which will give in first..

[steelwatch] 07/1/2015 22:12

ravin - From memory, during the Q & A's DF said they may have to look at future capex if it fell below $60, presumably after the immediate Tungolskoye development plans. I wouldn't think they would stop producing from whatever existing producing wells there are at such time future capex may be paused, as cost of lifting and treatment should still leave positive revenue, disregarding sunk cost. My guess is they (OIL & PTR) will also wait until Q4 to get a better long term view on where the oil price is headed.

edit: just had a listen- above should read below $70 of course

[ravin146] 07/1/2015 20:26

Dbarron, In terms of p/l, correct me if I'm wrong, at oil barrel, it was mentioned ptr can produce/extract oil with positive cashflow when oil is $70+, for how long at these low oil price levels would you expect anything to change. Would you expect parts of production to halt, I know we are funded, but what's stopping oil India to change/ suggest to change the plan? Are we ever going to hear from Oil India, are are the farmout agreement that they are not the mouthpiece?

[kevjones2] 07/1/2015 18:54

Quite agree, Granto2, when you state PTR won't buy distressed assets but it'll be interesting to see who gets taken over over the next few months. I agree also with seangwhite: I'd rather no news at this stage. Oil companies have been truly decimated. I'm surprised PTR are still above 4p at this stage. Many of the oilies I observe are down around 70/80% on their share price from around 6 months ago.

I can't see any end to it either - not for many, many months.

[ravin146] 07/1/2015 17:17

Wow distressed a year ago, now looking to buy distressed assets. Calm down. This has dropped from c.7p to 4p in line with oil price drop, yet were are hedged. Reality check, this needs a miracle as oil prices are expected to reverse downtrend not until h2 15, and Russia is in serious trouble. On the positive we are funded, downside many of the bb here may not even recoup losses for some time, unless you average down more and take a punt?!