Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[surfer2] 21/12/2014 15:02

PTR have a reserves report due on their other license soon. could well be large C3 numbers imo.

[dan158] 21/12/2014 09:55

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[danny111] 21/12/2014 08:30

Funny how the arguments change to suit a persons position. I can't say I'm happy with the BoD, but how many times have we heard the argument that the oil in the ground is worthless if you can't get it out? With the Oil India deal, the company finally has the resource and opportunity to develop the fields in a meaningful way, which would hopefully then also increase the value of oil in the ground. Whether the BoD can exercise the plan effectively remains to be seen, but as Db says, the price Oil India paid was not the price they would expect it to be worth if the ability to recover it from the ground is proven imo.

[steelwatch] 20/12/2014 22:16

Yes, I get that too, but, without the $45m OIL is spending, there would be no increase, so any increase in PTR's share of production resulting from the $45m OIL alone is spending directly affects the future value of our PTR shares, that is, if you are a shareholder.

[rcturner2] 20/12/2014 21:44

Any increase in production is automatically halved from now on. Half the money spent is for oils benefit only.

[steelwatch] 20/12/2014 21:17

Yes, I get that, but OIL are also committed to spend the other $22.5m whilst PTR is committed to pay nothing until it runs out. Like I said, I really think ordinary investors, (or failed traders as you call us), will be more concerned with how much OIL's total contribution will increase production when OIL's $45m, (PTR's $0), is spent on seismics, drilling and pipeline. Only then do I believe us ordinary amateur investors will be able to come to any kind of conclusion as to how much OIL's input has enhanced the value of our shares.

[rcturner2] 20/12/2014 20:56

They paid 35m for half and committed 45m expenditure of which only half is for the benefit of petroneft. So they paid 35 + 22.5 = 57.5m to get half the licence, which is a very different figure than 80m and is less than 1 dollar per p2 barrel.

[steelwatch] 20/12/2014 20:08

RCT - before cost sharing starts, OIL will have put down a total of $80m to secure their 50% of the field is perhaps another way of looking at it, so, as I see it, that is the value OIL put on their 50%. Depends which way you look at it, but I can see where both you and Db are coming from. I'm more interested in what PTR's 50% share will be worth once the $45m is spent and we know how much oil is being produced then before cost sharing begins.

[rcturner2] 20/12/2014 19:08

The use of the 80m figure for the farmout is misleading and is not what oil paid for half the field. It includes half the expenditure which has to be deducted. The figure paid was less than 1 dollar a barrel. He knows this and is deliberately misleading people on this thread. Beware of this poster.

[ravin146] 20/12/2014 17:00

Loll really... what you taking recently. No chance this will hit previous high. It was heavily ramped up by shareholders, most who are still here and management, with the latter then completely getting things wrong. Now heavily diluted, it is struggling to hit double figures! The rns continue to hide things, so who knows what we can miss in the future, for then down the line finding out, but by then the share price would have fallen. 6-7p short term target. But don't forget, ptr can do as much as they can, even if management say rouble fall and oil fall is a 'natural hedge'...it didn't stop the share price from falling on low volume. Let's see at mid jan where we are...

[crudde99] 20/12/2014 14:49

How on earth did Ptr ever rise to the dizzy heights that it did a few years back...??? Its rather depressing reading some of the posts above that muse over values such as 3p 4p e.t.c. culminating in total values of approx 12 odd pense per share..!!! I assume these calculations are base case valuations as this Co. was valued at approx 500 million a short while ago... El1te traders CONSERVATIVE valuation of PTRs present 50% of L61 gives P1 a 50 million sterling and P2 a 140 million sterling valuation, and that is without putting any value on its massive 600 million P3 or P4 reserves which overtime he is confident will be upgraded to P2 status. Nor does it assume any value at all to it's L67 area...!! We are told we have turned a corner, but according to the posts above we have walked straight into a brick wall... DbarrOn a few posts back, posting 27343 you seemed to state that you could not rule out the share price highs of the past been visited again in the future.....???

[dbarr0n] 20/12/2014 09:29

Licence 61
£ 51.2 million = $ 80 million div 58 million barrels = $ 1.38 per 2P barrel, or div by 707.245 million shares = 7.23p per share.
The above is the valuation of 50% of licence come 2017 based on the farm out deal when Oil India have spent $ 45 million developing the licence.

£ 36.8 million = $ 57.5 million div 58 million barrels = $ .99 per 2P barrel, or div by 707.245 million shares = 5.2p per share.
The above is the current valuation of 50% of licence 61 based on what Oil India have paid for it.

Licence 67.
50 million barrels net to Petroneft @ $ .50 barrel = $ 25 million or £ 16 million div 707.245 million shares = 2.25p per share.
The above is a pure guesstimate and alter it as you like and add to one of the figures above.

But as I said before Oil India didn't pay what they thought 50% of the licence was worth now or then.
They surely expect their investment here to be worth a lot more..

[dbarr0n] 19/12/2014 19:56

Granto...
It would look like you did not read my post properly.
Come 2017 Oil India will have spent $ 80 million to get their half share of licence 61..
The question is,
Did Oil India pay $ 80 million for an asset that's still going to be worth just 80 million in 2017 ?.
I doubt it.
Licence 67 could have 50 + million barrels, at just 50c per barrel to one of the operators nearby = $ 25 million

And by the way, The deal is in Dollars not Pounds ....

[rcturner2] 19/12/2014 16:46

The farm out valued the business at just over 9p, the sums are pretty easy to work out.

[granto2] 19/12/2014 16:31

Dbarron, laugh away, I spend nearly two hours working it out at them time and it was more complex than I thought it would be. Seems i wasted my time as the Goodbody Brokers issued a report a few days later and what of you know…they had the same figure as me. I don't think Davy;s did. Forgive me if I don;t go through the calculations right now, the LOL cost you that dear friend, perhaps Goodbody's might be kind enough. Not sure if we both were on exactly 9.5 but I think we were practically on it. I admit I don't know as much as you about PTR, but I can count… a sincere happy christmas

[dbarr0n] 19/12/2014 16:07

Granto...
I dont know how you would know what figure Oil India came up with, but I can be sure it was a lot higher than 9.5p lol,
They paid $80 million or £51 million for 50% of licence 61s value in 2017 when they have spent $45 million on exploration and development.
That puts a value of 7.2 p per share on 50% of licence 61, add 2p per share for Licence 67 after reserves update.
Surely Oil India expect their 50% of licence 61 to be worth a lot than they paid for it ($80 million) by the time Sibkrayevskoye stars production.

[granto2] 19/12/2014 15:44

RTC, there is three levels to this, level 1 - current production level 2 what we know the $45m will deliver 3 the prospects and reserves to the north of the license. I place a value of 2p on current production 4p on whats about to follow in the next 2 years and I place a value of 3.5p on the value of the Northern fields and license 67. giving me a total of 9.5p. I don't know how Oil India totted it up but they came to the same figure. albeit oil was trading a lot higher then…DYOR

[rcturner2] 19/12/2014 14:12

"An investment is a trade gone wrong"

[granto2] 19/12/2014 14:09

RCT….i agree that PTR is becoming more of a long term play and thats not my idea of boom time. I bought in before the farm out, and I didn't expect the decline, and I also presumed that production would have been a little faster, but we are not too far off schedule, a month maybe. If the 373 proves a gusher then this license will be gem. I think thats what the OIl guys banked on too

[granto2] 19/12/2014 14:03

did I read somewhere that they intend to overhaul the existing wells that are in decline? with a view to increasing production from them?

[rcturner2] 19/12/2014 14:00

ravin, a friend of mine still has a stake here, he ignored my advice to sell lol. I hold uen, which is a similar company, so I am interested in PTR for that reason too. I would consider a buy at the right price, but there is nothing to get excited about here. I hope the horizontal well does something for you guys, they just cannot get the production up. Low price, new management, drill success and I would buy. What annoys me is that they do not provide shareholders with sufficient information to evaluate the well performance, it is always some general figure with no breakdown.

[chris cat] 19/12/2014 13:46

Thanks for the responses guys - much appreciated. Truth be told I'm fed up here after so long and made the mistake of watching my initial investment treble and then more than half so would really be quite happy to get out at a decent price (whatever that is). Can't see the price going anywhere until production is materially increased which looks unlikely until 2016. its like being stuck with a girlfriend that you're a bit fed up with but occasionally remember the good times and keep hoping they return - but can't quite bite the bullet and move on.

[ravin146] 19/12/2014 13:38

RCT I didn't see Steel's official company view, I didn't realise they replied directly to shareholders!

Not sure what your agenda is here, steel gave that facts. No one is clutching at straws, we are gagging for oil! I have already stated you made the right decision at the time, lucky maybe, to close at 7p, or have you not and this the reason why you still comment here?

If you see the share going down, state your view and short it. I am sure this bb is open to any views.

gla and happy xmas

[dbarr0n] 19/12/2014 13:07

Also if the horizontal wells on Tungolskoye are successful it will have a huge impact on the economics of the 50+ million barrel Sibkrayevskoye field which they plan to put in production in 2017.