Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[paa65] 22/11/2017 18:10

NY Boy - Not russian roulette - just sensible trading from my perspective.
I only sold 10% so will still get 90% of the big rise if one comes.
Back in the summer I sat on my hands when the price rose to 488p and 475p expecting it to go a bit higher on both occasions. Only to see if drop off (to what I thought was a pull back on an uptrend) then a further drop to a point where the profit wasn't enough to make it worthwhile selling.

Noujay - As for when to buy back - I again use the 10 day m.a as my benchmark. On the last drop I bought in at 422p when the price was 2% below the 10 day M.A. But this turned out to be too early and I bought some more at 406p

[fuji99] 22/11/2017 16:26

Despite low volume today, step by step, it is slowly and surely converging towards 450p mark.

[topazfrenzy] 22/11/2017 15:41

£6 offer could be on the table by Christmas, they often strike when things are quiet.

[ny boy] 22/11/2017 15:25

Russian roulette selling now, with bids on the horizon, once it comes out too late to get in at a good price

Holding for much higher prices, the juicy divi is good for holders too.

[fuji99] 22/11/2017 15:20

If one takes a profit now, can he/she buy it back at a far higher value when some positives are announced say tomorrow ?
This is the question.
As far as I am concerned, I am in it till the outcome is clarified.

[noujay] 22/11/2017 15:18

So on what basis do you take into account the initial oversold factor? Logically a price can show far more volatility or potential for spiking in a scenario where it's been oversold to such an extent?

[bouleversee] 22/11/2017 15:02

If you want the price to continue upwards, hang on to your shares. It's profit taking that takes it down again. I won't be selling any of mine.

[paa65] 22/11/2017 14:59

Lodgeview.I trade based on current price compared to the moving average of the last 10 days closing prices. On that measure 448p was about 5% overbought - which is about as high it has been getting on recent peaks.Looking back further to the billion dollar contracts it gor to about 8% overbought before slipping back.

[1gw] 22/11/2017 14:45

I'm quite tempted to take profit from my recent £4 buy but what has stopped me so far is the thought that maybe we're moving into a period of more aggressive short-closing.

And if we are, whether because of bid rumours, or price of oil or whatever, then that could take the price significantly higher (IMO). The other thing a continuing upward trend may do is force the hand of anyone thinking about a bid. i.e. if the Telegraph story was true and 2 or 3 companies have started working on a potential bid then to some extent it might be in their interest to get a price set (i.e. table a bid) early on, so that they can present a meaningful premium, rather than have to keep increasing the level at which they plan to pitch their initial bid in order to be able to show even a modest premium to the previous closing price.

[lodgeview] 22/11/2017 14:32

Very overbought? Over what timescale?

[paa65] 22/11/2017 14:31

Sold 10% of my holding at 448p.Best to take some profit as it is now very overbought.

[fuji99] 22/11/2017 13:56

pft10 - Noted your very wise comments and agree with you 100%.

[pft10] 22/11/2017 13:51

I don't often contribute to these boards. Only when I am spread betting the relevant stock do I occasionally have a look. I have been long and short Petrofac - currently long.

Why do so many contributors find it necessary to damn those with opposing views. It seems such a shame that those shorting may feel alienated which in turn stops debate and the sharing of thoughts and often useful knowledge. We're all trying to achieve the same thing!

Instead of saying how much a 150p spike is going to hurt the shorters wouldn't it be more beneficial to all those with long positions to find out why they are short. What do they know that we don't?

[fuji99] 22/11/2017 13:43

Volatility increase these days meaning something is going to give up/explode.
Could take us all the way to 500p before either a bid approach or a clean SFO outcome for the company.

[lodgeview] 22/11/2017 13:38

450 about to go!

[fuji99] 22/11/2017 09:50

Regardless of shorts, 1/ if a bid approach is confirmed or 2/ if the SFO doesn't have any valid ground - but only against individuals or 3/ if they announce a big contract the share price will shot up sharply. This could happen any time form now.
An increase of 150p in one spike for cases 1/ and 2/ can really hurt some shorters.

[ny boy] 21/11/2017 21:13

Shorts are going to 🔥🔥burn🔥🔥 in hell soon!

[blackbear] 21/11/2017 21:01

1gw thanks for that info.

[1gw] 21/11/2017 18:51

Disclosed short positions.

AQR reduced on Friday. So it looks like their pace of closing has picked up a bit in November.

AQR disclosed short positions:
4.82% 18th August
4.79% 22nd September
4.69% 12th October
4.57% 20th October
4.48% 2nd November
4.35% 9th November
4.29% 13th November
4.17% 17th November

With AQR and AKO both having reduced on Friday after the Telegraph story, it will be interesting to see what the next move is (or has been) of the 3 companies who increased their short positions on 13th November.

[paa65] 21/11/2017 16:25

Rising strongly in to the close.Looking forward to 450 tomorrow

[ny boy] 21/11/2017 16:24

Good technical chart action in motion, today double test of 435p support.

Break & close above 450p next, maybe this week

[woodhawk] 21/11/2017 16:13

robo175,

Not using MACD particularly.

[fuji99] 21/11/2017 16:07

In all possible scenarios, - There are only 3: 1/ A bid or 2/ The SFO does not have enough evidence against the company but only against individuals 3/ A new big contract is announced - I am happy and patient to hold.