Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[1stockgod] 27/6/2017 15:00

I think without much good news expected on the horizon, this is likely to slip below £4 unfortunately.

[whattheduce] 27/6/2017 14:34

ps, I think you will also find it is the class action lawyers in Amex land that may have panicked the share price down rather than SFO statements, when they start refusing press questions on action they are going ahead with (there will be no action to take) then institutions will buy back in hard.

[stoxx67] 27/6/2017 13:55

luderitz

most of the posts i have seen from you state you are "sitting on the fence" or "out of the company for a while"

do you make much of a return on your capital?

nothing wrong with being cautious and all that but you would miss the vast majority of the large moves, sitting on the fence.
what is your strategy, out of pure interest, do you buy oversold companies or await certain technical/fundamental scenario's prior to buying?

all the best to you in your trading endeavors.

[paa65] 27/6/2017 13:50

Need to get to 425p now to confirm todays up channel and break the down channel that started at yesterdays 440 peak.

[11_percent] 27/6/2017 13:45

Link please....cant find it.

[tsmith2] 27/6/2017 13:43

Webcast up?

[whattheduce] 27/6/2017 13:39

Strings are too tight to fall to 406. Looking at the pattern from just before 15th May, I would estimate the big buy back in will begin late afternoon or tomorrow. Absolute latest will be salary pay day when a lot of pis will look for a quick profit on selling out around 470. By then I suspect the momentum will leave it hovering around the 500 as per fair pricing. Then up and down like a yo-yo as spin up and spin down SFO stories appear. Ride that wave and you will be rich, get out of sync and you will be bust. Good volatility prospects here. Good opportunity to dive in and out and make a good return. Starts very soon.

[notimpressed] 27/6/2017 13:25

has a merger/takeover with wood group ever been aired.
common fields of operation and expertise could unlock a lot
of value in cost savings.

[gaffer73] 27/6/2017 12:23

Traders making their money, probably close 406p. Makes no difference long term.

[bracke] 27/6/2017 12:18

Thanks for reply Penycae

Wasn't that a lucky trade by AQR or should I say foresight......

For the shorters to cover they would have to think that they are unable to push the share price lower or be unable to borrow shares.

Chartwise it's just about holding above the Daily SMA 50. If it fails a retest of 400 likely.

We await events.

[penycae] 27/6/2017 11:15

Morning bracke!
I think 3 and 4 are the most likely scenarios. I actually think 4 will occur first.
This company has been put in play, mainly by AQR, who managed to load up the day before the SFO investigation was announced. Since then we've had baseless speculation on guilt, levels of likely fine, lack of co-operation, and anything else likely to bring down the share price Against this DB is quietly acquiring at discounted prices, and no doubt lending shares to AQR and others under a commercial arrangement. By doing this they benefit threefold. They acquire at a discount, take a commission (or bung as they say in Wales) for lending the shares, then profit when the shorts close, as they surely will.
We saw a 20p drop this morning following the trading update. I haven't worked out what that did to the market cap of this company, but nothing in the update warranted such a move.
I've got quite a few of these now. Also taken a position in DB this morning.

[notimpressed] 27/6/2017 10:48

AQR also have a short of 3.89% on wood group.
no doubt in anticipation of a protracted low POO.

[bracke] 27/6/2017 10:25

Good day Penycae

"The reversal will be sudden and dramatic."
==========================================

For the above to occur I presume you think one of the following:

1 The SFO investigation will be dropped.

2 The investigation will show no wrong doing.

3 Wrong doing will be found but the fine will not be onerous.

4 Shorters will cover.

Or do you have another in mind?

[luderitz] 27/6/2017 10:02

It's at times like these that I do value being out of a Company for a bit.

[tsmith2] 27/6/2017 09:40

Just particularly with a stacks of cash on the balance sheet, throwing of FCF and $13bn of back log orders and v significant opportunities.

[patience a virtue] 27/6/2017 09:38

Debt of 1 Billion is scary for a services company.

[tsmith2] 27/6/2017 09:32

Shake and vac. Also a few t-traders

[mister md] 27/6/2017 09:22

I think price of oil will drive this from here for the time being...

[tsmith2] 27/6/2017 09:15

So what's full slated in to be?Then consider the potential fine and the fact that it'll be payable over a number of years and that PFC will be doing absolutely everything they can to be in the good books of the SFOsilly silly price..

[mj19] 27/6/2017 09:13

Petrofac issued a pre-close trading update, ahead of the announcement of its half year results for the six months to 30 June on 30 August, claiming underlying net profit for the first half of 2017 was expected to be between $135m and $145m, with full year net profit expected to be weighted to the second half of the year. The company reported a new order intake of $1.7bn in the year to date, with a backlog of $13.0bn at 31 May. Net debt was forecast to be around $1.1bn at 30 June, which would be in line with expectations.

[adejuk] 27/6/2017 09:08

i bought back in the dip

[penycae] 27/6/2017 09:05

Just bought that dip. This is just being shafted. The reversal will be sudden and dramatic.

[jurgenklopp] 27/6/2017 08:59

That analyst meeting does not appear to have cleared up things !!

[tsmith2] 27/6/2017 08:27

Yes, guess that's correct. Can't really knock for that. Recording will be up later

[luderitz] 27/6/2017 08:19

Out for a bit and happy to see where we are on my return.