Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[woodhawk] 30/6/2017 09:20

Greed soon replaces fear - and the fear factor was massively overdone here. Earnings unlikely to be affected as contracts still being won recently and more imminent - including a very poss $1.5 billion, so dividend probably safe too. Only fly in the ointment is a possible prosecution & fine (which - even if it happened - could be dealt with by, say, a brief dividend holiday, a couple of years down the line).

From The Telegraph:

"In addition the Jersey-based services group recently clinched a new decade-long contract to provide Petroleum Development Oman with engineering, procurement and construction work.

It follows a three-year programme of similar services for Oman that Petrofac already provides, and could help put it in line to win one of the $1.5bn packages for Oman’s Duqm refinery project when it is sanctioned in the second half of this year."

[tsmith2] 30/6/2017 09:19

Not yet..but pressure ratcheting on them. See glencore chart over 2-3 years span to see what a short unwind looks like

[ny boy] 30/6/2017 09:19

Nice bear trap there, fresh highs, looking good for a move to 506p over the coming weeks.

[bakunin] 30/6/2017 09:11

Fear of missing out bound to set in soon.
It's not like CPI (was in a mess). The only real negative in the case of PFC is this SFO investigation.

[adejuk] 30/6/2017 09:08

shorts unwinding?

[woodhawk] 30/6/2017 09:07

Right, Gary. However, the average share price target from those covering since the SFO announcement is north of 600p, so in my view the albeit hefty divis are likely to be vastly exceeded in the short term by capital gains. Nevertheless, it's great to lock in such potentially huge divis going forward - this could pay off big time for years to come for those with the patience!

[bakunin] 30/6/2017 09:00

It was by following such "obvious" situations that LTCM went bust.

[garycook] 30/6/2017 08:59

Woody,Spot on,but depending on the GBP/USD rate 1.30 gives around the 17p mark.So could be more or less,depends on the X/C rate at the time of the dividend payment.

[bakunin] 30/6/2017 08:58

Could AQR Capital be another LTCM?
Founded by academics and use quantitative methods.
It would appear that they are averaging-up (-down for shorters??) to keep their position at the same level or close to profit, waiting for a momentum move downwards that would allow them to unwind.
Can anyone see what quantitative aspect of the share price collapse, caused purely by rumours and then confirmation of an SFO investigation, their computer models will have identified as a major opportunity?

[woodhawk] 30/6/2017 08:33

I think the ex-divi date will be approx 21st September, therefore it should be announced earlier than that. Should be somewhere around 17p I think (?).

[bryall2] 30/6/2017 08:24

Late September. Al.

[vk74] 30/6/2017 08:23

When the divi will be announced?

[tsmith2] 30/6/2017 08:22

silly to sell at this level...£6-7 plus chunky dividend fair value.Waiting for imminent contract win announcement

[bryall2] 30/6/2017 08:09

Yeah me. Al.

[ny boy] 30/6/2017 08:07

Wake up, anyone left here?

Bit of an early morning wobble, doubt much lower than 425p today

[ny boy] 29/6/2017 19:01

Hope you are still short equity indices lodgeview? The half year end profit taking has just started.. party on into the sept/oct market collapse, my shorts on dow, ftse are doing very well indeed, mainly as a hedge for some equity positions.

Let's hope the momentum can continue here as we closed well today.

[tsmith2] 29/6/2017 18:48

From one of the Broker notes out yesterday/day before

[woodhawk] 29/6/2017 18:45

tsmith2 - can you please give quotes their references? Thanks.

[tsmith2] 29/6/2017 18:27

Yesterday's trading update confirmed our prior view than the project award outlook is robust, and that Petrofac has ample opportunities to win the $2.2bn of new work required to underpin our 2018 revenue forecasts; we see at least $3.8bn of awards that it is wellplaced to win due for award imminently."Could be very interesting if PFC take a decent amount of them...imminent..

[1gw] 29/6/2017 17:54

So 7 out of the 8 trading days up to 27th June, AQR increased its short, going from 3.00% on 15th June to 3.92% on 27th.

How much ammunition has it got left?

[callmebwana] 29/6/2017 17:50

1gw.
Thanks for the above info.
ATB.

[1gw] 29/6/2017 17:24

Weight of shorting increased again on Tuesday with WorldQuant and CapeView reversing their recent reductions. And Monday was worse than previously thought thanks to a late declaration by Old Mutual. So to update yesterday's post in the light of today's declarations the total net additions to the total disclosed short position up to and including changes on Tuesday declared on or before today are:

16th Jun: 0.33% (AQR and WorldQuant)
19th Jun: 0.30% (AQR and WorldQuant)
20th Jun: 0.18% (AQR and WorldQuant)
21st Jun: 0.12% (AQR)
22nd Jun: 0.16% (AQR and Blackrock up, WorldQuant down)
23rd Jun: 0.00% (no changes)
26th Jun: 0.11% (AQR and Old Mutual up, CapeView down)
27th Jun: 0.25% (AQR, WorldQuant, CapeView all up)

AQR is now at 3.92% short on Petrofac (as of 27th June) and up to 4.11% short on Wood Group (also as of 27th June). These 2 positions are by far AQR's biggest (as a % of share capital of company being shorted) on the FCA spreadsheet, with 3.00% in Capita being its next biggest.

The price dipped on Tuesday (Trading Update day). It will be interesting to see tomorrow's declarations for changes on Wednesday when the price rebounded strongly.

[whattheduce] 29/6/2017 16:49

looks like a ZWD fiver is on it's way to you adeyuk, spend it wisely now.

[adejuk] 29/6/2017 16:37

wtd
i already have 75k on that bet