Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[wshak] 03/5/2024 18:28

Leonebull,The bonds might well go to zero.One thing I can guarantee is no one buying them will be crying about it if they do, and blaming anyone else ...

[leoneobull] 03/5/2024 16:47

Let's hope the bonds go to zero...

[loglorry1] 03/5/2024 09:08

"You can buy in a SIPP if your dealer can trade bonds. ISIN is US716473AE37"
Not sure it's one to buy in your tax wrapper.

Good chance its a wipe out in which case you can use the capital loss against gains. If it's not then its probably a big capital uplift and probably you don't mind paying CCT on that if you sell it. If you want to keep it for income (assuming any bond remains) then just cross it into a tax wrapper at that point.

It's $200K nominal size so even at 20c that's $40K plus comms. Don't pay any accrued though. Which for many is still a high ticket price for a punt.

As pointed out very good chance >20% of a complete wipe out.

[wshak] 03/5/2024 08:03

Hi PPCEH,

RCF price isn't available as it's not publicly traded, so may well be worth sub 20c if it was?

Pari pasu normally means what it says.

As nothing has been stated on it by the company, nor has there been anything to say otherwise, I'm going with the presumption that they are in the same boat.

fake news network fnn,

You van buy in a SIPP if your dealer can trade bonds. ISIN is US716473AE37 but be prepared to lose it all if things don't work out.

[ppceh] 02/5/2024 19:04

Was

There really shouldn’t be any conflict between bondholders and RCF, etc.

Everyone is in the same boat.

From what I’ve seen (the Bond prospectus but only basic details re the RCF/TL) I’d rather be in the RCFs/TL’s. This is probably stating the obvious.

All are meant to be pari passu in a wind up but the Bond price is inplying that this may not be the case.

Combine that with the podcast link that Log posted, the reporter said the position of the RCFs/TL’s was unknown.

[fake news network fnn] 02/5/2024 18:24

Can people buy the bond in a sipp?

what's the ISIN

[wshak] 02/5/2024 17:11

My only worry when purchasing bonds at around 20c in the $ is the whole restructuring falling apart.Bondholders have provisionally said they'll provide $300m in fresh funds and - if that goes through - bonds purchased at current levels will make money.There will be plenty of buyers of shares for a low debt, re-capitalised PFC, even with an overhang from bondholders selling their fresh equity into the market.Once restructured, the firm could conceivably be a takeover target.No acquirer is going to be interested before PFC is restructured.I'd have thought that they have been talking for so long, most parties should have agreed broad terms by now. Nothing should be a surprise, at this stage.There really shouldn't be any conflict between bondholders and RCF, etc. Everyone is in the same boat.

[ghhghh] 02/5/2024 14:15

Log

I think we agree it's an attractive business, just not to us."
I'll agree with this on the proviso there we are at the end of losses in the Thia Clean oil fiasco. Do you know how much further pain there is there?

The $130m is what they are seeking to claim back from the client but has not been concluded in time. FWIW PFC say they are confident so hopefully a pleasant 2024 bonus. I don't know whether it's a binary result or whether haggling over exact amount?

$625m still seems a bit expensive no? I mean it will probably not make much of a profit as the debt servicing costs may be similar to the current ones and currently forecast to be loss making (before the further losses just announced)

Current debt servicing about $80m. The interest on the $200m SS Bond should be a lot lower than 40%! I'd assume 12% max.

I'm assuming that the $100m facility will be there as a buffer while they wait for Malaysia and possibly Thai income.

If debtholders are taking significant haircuts (as appears likely) then the new equity could attract plenty of interest. I'll be amazed if there is not an equity raise so that directors and existing major shareholders can get their snouts into the trough.

Assuming BH don't walk away I think our best hope as BH is that they may protect some of their existing value by not screwing themselves too hard and keeping an aftermarket in the new equity to recover their old bonds into.

I don't see Debt Holders 'walking away' unless something happens that so catastrophic that it can't be alleviated by debt haircuts. PFC will have no finance costs so should be reasonably cheap to tick over until they find a buyer.

I'm more concerned about the relationship between the BHs and the RCF/TL. How consensual?

[loglorry1] 02/5/2024 14:13

Bonds getting cheaper hxxps://x.com/WShak1/status/1786034384065229260 19.75p flat today.

[geckotheglorious] 02/5/2024 13:21

Asfari has no real say in this if he is just an Equity stockholder.
he'll take what is given to him.

[investtofly] 02/5/2024 12:16

Asfari won't go down without a fight, too much involved IMO.

[warren bluff it 1] 02/5/2024 09:36

4-5p at best, admin not out of the question

[loglorry1] 02/5/2024 08:33

Sell side research targets are totally useless. They are just adjusted based on price movements so as to a) be more than the current share price and b) not too ridiculous after big falls.

I remember years ago reading a warm and cuddly research note form BARC on Bowleven. I lost a fortune on that stock. Just marketing to drum up business.

[dealy] 02/5/2024 08:28

Their 85p target was obviously useless and contained no useful analysis which might have saved investors from losses

[dipa11] 02/5/2024 07:42

Barclays cuts Petrofac price target to 10 (85) pence - 'equal weight'

[kirk 6] 02/5/2024 07:19

Indus Gas looks ready to explode while we wait for this dog to trade INDI

[warren bluff it 1] 01/5/2024 18:37

There large contracts, but who's to say there lucrative, the margins could well be far too tight

[armbar] 01/5/2024 18:02

Be back when it opens back up Finance restructure incl or excl D4EChapter 11Asset sales plus other extensions Bonds repurchase Or imo JV/Takeover which has always been my stance , been played Reason : In country value Uae, Intrinsic to Adnoc , Ayman Asfari and other major holders not sold Good luck all will end up in the middle east hands somehow imo

[showme01] 01/5/2024 17:46

They have some very lucrative contracts on the books. More to come I believe. Just needs a restructure of finance or could be bought out. Either way, it will move forwards with speed imo

[watfordhornet] 01/5/2024 17:04

Good to see the share price stay flat for a change!