Personal Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 26/2/2024 15:09

I’ve noticed all trades are not noted and also some 5hat are is buys 👹

[aublune] 19/2/2024 18:55

big buys

19-Feb-24 11:34:30 171.00 45,000 Buy 167.00 175.00 £76.95k
19-Feb-24 11:13:35 171.00 51,420 Buy 167.00 175.00 £87.93k

[aublune] 13/2/2024 11:49

I am picking up some

[quepassa] 10/2/2024 12:25

Fully agree.

See my recent posts as well.

[pireric] 10/2/2024 11:45

Here were my starting thoughts, PGH:

164.5p mid-price
£51.4m market cap, £20.1m net cash
£30.3m enterprise value

- £49m of revenue excluding voucher pass-through revenue
- Between 2013 and 2022, traded on an average forward P/E of around 17x. Currently down to only 10.3x P/E. The only time it has ever been below 10x was during the GFC, and then momentarily at the lows last year

- On an ex-cash basis, down to just 6.1x P/E

- EPS still in recovery mode, but should be on a strong forward growth path now. 14.3p forecast for last year, 16.0p forecast for this year (suspect it could/should be higher). 2019 EPS was 28.4p so still a long way short of pre-COVID levels (taking time for new written premium benefits to filter through against the investment put in). No change to the share count.

- Founder Christopher Johnston at a 36% holding remains a large aligned shareholder. Probably leads to M&A at the relevant point in time in the future/not too distant future. I make it that he is getting on towards being 80.

- CEO strategy review comes at a time when the business is showing good underlying momentum, and will probably be focused on driving profitability increases on the insurance side, potentially better monetising voucher pass through, and putting more focus on how to increasingly quickly scale the employee benefits platform opportunity.

- Underlying revenue growth (Excluding vouchers) impacted in 2023 by Let's Connect -£6m, but this headwind drops back from 2024 so the underlying business should now start accelerating.

- "Recurring revenue" > 75% of the group revenue mix

Affordable Insurance business

- Personal Group's bedrock and has been pretty consistent over time

- Post sales force investment, now hitting new annualised premium signed records; £11.8m in FY23, up materially from £9.5m in 2022 and rebounding well from £3.7m in 2021, £2.4m in 2020. Comfortably above 2 years in a row vs. the £9.0m of 2019.

- Claims rates c. 27% above pre-COVID levels of 23-24%, but not something expected to revert soon. And frankly not a huge issue.

Employee Benefits platform business

- High quality platform revenue, through direct and indirect channel (Sage). Sage's own growth has really picked up in recent years. Surely possible that they look at the employee benefits platform they are currently whitelabelling and consider taking it out at some point in the future.

- Increased to 12% or so revenue share of the group excluding voucher sales passthrough.

- What value do you put on these software benefits platforms which are still growing >20% p.a. (may become mid/high teens %) with total ARR of £6.1m? And where the Benefits platform makes 60% EBITDA margins (minus intercompany)? You could easily argue 5-7x trailing ARR, which would be equal to or more than the enterprise value of the company itself

- Cavendish flag that the Sage Employee Benefits penetration of Sage's own customer base is still less than 1%.

- Hapi 2.0 and Sage Employee Benefits 2.0 look like they are available now for general adoption. Probably some migration to be worked through, but you can e.g. see their app store availability already:

Valuation

- On the more simplistic lens, with all the momentum in the business, and with the business quality actually improving, why couldn't this get back to say 14-15x P/E compared to the 10.3x it is at today? 14x would be 36% upside and would imply an ex-cash P/E of still <10x. It would be 224p, and you'd receive a 7% dividend return too, so we're talking 43% total returns.

- Dividend yield is 7.1% at these levels, so paid to wait, and that's fully covered by earnings. Low capex, low working capital business model

- This is a business that is capable without any growth of generating £6m+ of free cash per annum, so on an enterprise value basis, it's generating a 20% free cash flow yield which is extremely high.

- NED bought £24k in mid January, £10k in December

- If you wanted to be creatively bullish, you'd put the employee benefits platform business on a chunky ARR multiple, the rest of the business on a normal multiple, and then value the cash bridge separately. I won't do that, but you can easily get very very materially higher than £51m.

Outlook
- "Trading in the first few weeks of 2024 has been positive, reinforcing confidence in ongoing delivery moving forward."
- "Confidence across the Company is high for 2024 and the Group is well-placed to deliver ongoing growth acceleration."

Eric

[basem1] 09/2/2024 15:13

Largely overlooked Lots to like Growing earnings a nice cash pile and juicy dividend I would like 6 like this. Also like ALU and Cake

[pireric] 09/2/2024 14:43

Very interesting here I think. Been kicking the can and building a position over recent sessions. Might flesh out some of those points over the coming days

Eric

[quepassa] 25/1/2024 12:14

more than a third of £58m market cap is in cash.

Cash £20m
Mkt Cap £58m

[quepassa] 25/1/2024 09:27

You should almost certainly be able to buy inside the public spread.

The public spread is currently 177-185 but the last trade was done at 183.44.

So the market is likely nearer 178.5-183.5.

Try a couple of dummy runs with your online broker!

[basem1] 25/1/2024 08:27

Tighten that spread and I will have a few more

[quepassa] 25/1/2024 08:17

Great figures/Trading Update.

The insurance side is going gangbusters with significant growth of 13%.

I like the strategy of AFFORDABLE INSURANCE and at a time when the NHS is failing on so many fronts - this is likely in my view to be a major growth area.

Look at that balance-sheet. Zero debt and £20 million cash.

And EBITDA up 33% from £6m to £8m.


The shareholder dividend looks well supported.

All Imo. Dyor.
QP

[basem1] 25/1/2024 08:16

Nice chunky yield at this level too

[basem1] 25/1/2024 08:04

Nice results gone largely unnoticed by the markets

[quepassa] 02/1/2024 10:24

Off the radar.

STRONG INTERIM RESULTS which saw the interim dividend increased by 10%.

If the final dividend is equally increased by 10% which seems a reasonable possibility, this would mean a full year divi of 11.7p ( 5.85p increased interim plus prospective 5.85p final), the yield is currently 6.3% .


Not many AIM shares have a prospective yield of 6.3%.


Moreover, they have an extremely robust history and track record of paying shareholder dividends.

Strong Outlook.

With a new CEO and £21million cash versus market cap of just £58million combined with high dividend, PGH would appear to have a lot of positives going for it.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[tnt99] 27/12/2023 09:46

Giving away 5 pound notes

[tnt99] 16/12/2023 11:15

Here we gobsmacked I didn't buy more

[basem1] 12/12/2023 11:26

Far too cheap ?

[flc] 21/11/2023 10:48

SP drops 9% on 3 x £500 trades...crazy, crazy!!

[tnt99] 20/11/2023 18:14

Trading up shares down crazy market

[topvest] 19/10/2023 14:04

I agree. Odd that no interim presentation this year. I think this company is turning around. Makes you wonder if something else is going on, or maybe the CEO wants more time to make a mark before engaging?

[quepassa] 07/10/2023 08:49

good company. doing well. lots of strengths.

but.....


1). more announcements, and

2). an investor/market charm offensive


are sorely needed by the Company to promote their image and to foster a better understanding of their business proposition among the investing communities.

[flc] 07/10/2023 07:23

Unfortunately the analysts always scratch their heads trying to fully understand what the business actually does. I think you're right, the share price should recover.

[tnt99] 01/10/2023 19:38

Should reposition shares to over 3 pounds by January

[topvest] 29/9/2023 11:28

Yes, very positive I thought. They are doing well on growing the insurance book which is the main revenue and profit driver. £30m annual premium income is clearly going to be passed in H2 and probably already has been in Q3. The 10% interim dividend increase says it all really. I'm not quite sure why the share price has been so weak.