Personal Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 23/11/2020 13:53

doesnt look like its headed lower - bought a few 1000 at 197 oddgla

[scepticalinvestor] 23/11/2020 13:02

well i personally believe that 200p offers extreme value.may drift lower but surely not by muchhave a 10k share buy order at 190.

[smithless] 23/11/2020 12:28

Don't think paying a final dividend at its current share price (yield of 10%) is the best use of cash. Better off buying back shares at depressed levels. As for your other points re news and regs. Subjective and seen no evidence to the contrary

[sniffer5] 23/11/2020 11:40

The question is whether the dividends are sustainable going forwards? I very much doubt it - which is possibly why they have delayed Q4's dividend and reverted to dividend payments twice a year. I see the shares are down another 9p (4.41%) in trading this morning. Unfortunately this is a company always eager to announce good news but less willing to share the not so good. Assuming that there are no regulatory issues or concerns(particularly around the FCAs Fair Value assessments of their cover) - then they may be getting close to bottoming out.

[smithless] 23/11/2020 11:02

Also sniffer you forgot to mention in FY04 eps was 3p, which would have put it on a pe of 66x. Has bought back shares since then, acquired and paid big dividend.

[smithless] 23/11/2020 10:18

sniffer5 I've started picking up stock at these levels and will continue to do so. Yes, Covid is obviously having an impact and will have implications going forward. This is fundamentally a good business, with a good reputation and Covid situation is now well and truly, IMHO, reflected in the price. I suspect FY20 eps of around 23p. thus currently on 8.5x. With £16m of cash, it has ample headroom to see itself through this. As for Rooney selling, looks like sour grapes, for being kicked off the board

[sniffer5] 23/11/2020 09:20

Share price is back down to where it was in 2004. In 2004 they made a pre-tax profit of £6.17m and had significant prospects for growth and acquisitions.
The prospects looking ahead to 2021 and beyond are completely different: turnover of their core insurance business is likely to be falling fast due to Covid restictions; they face much greater competition in the employee benefits market; they have failed to fulfil the potential of any acquisitions; and they face much greater regulatory scrutiny Can they get back to any semblance of growth over the next couple of years? I very much doubt it!

[scepticalinvestor] 23/11/2020 08:54

good point.still with all that cash this presents a great opp.what stops me is the fact that one of the execs sold recently.

[sniffer5] 23/11/2020 08:31

My best guess is that aside from the first 11 weeks of this year (up until the first lockdown)they will have been unable to transact any insurance business (having been unable to enter worksites). Most likely they will therefore only have been able to transact around £2.5m of new business. Their existing £30m book of business will have most likely experienced a 25% fall off rate - so their insured business could be down £4m-£5m on 2019 with no end in sight.

[scepticalinvestor] 23/11/2020 08:14

Extremely interesting co. Escapes me why the mkt cap is at this low lvl

[topvest] 11/11/2020 21:30

Only a pocket money sale. I am going to wait it out. A good company, but needs to get the core business back on track rather than treading water.

[sniffer5] 11/11/2020 16:16

Shares down again today to a 15 year low. Fortunately, I sold my last remaining shares a few months back but had been thinking of buying again – but was spooked by the announcement below.

“The Company has been informed by Ken Rooney, Non-Executive Director & Deputy Chairman, that he had sold, on 6 November 2020, 3,551 ordinary shares of 5 pence each in the Company at a price of £2.15 per share from his holding in the Company's Inland Revenue approved Employee Share Ownership Plan. Following this transaction, Mr Rooney no longer has any interest in Personal Group's ordinary shares.”

Why would the ex Managing Director and current non-exec deputy chairman be selling all of his shares at £2.15? Hardly a vote of confidence! What does he know that we ordinary investors don’t??

[leejp] 05/11/2020 16:26

Thanks. And today an announcement 5th Nov that the final divi for the year will be pushed to next year. Late call.

And going forward divi payments will halve from 4 times per year to twice. Proposed after H1 and H2 results.

[sniffer5] 05/11/2020 09:34

Down again today. I feel some sympathy for the current management who inherited a sinking ship – long before the Covid 19 situation threatened much of their business model. Without access to worksites for much of 2020 (and possibly beyond) their premium income from insurance is likely to fall by around £4m with a commensurate knock on to profits.

[leejp] 04/11/2020 20:49

Anyone know why the stock bombed 7% today?

[sniffer5] 23/3/2020 16:45

“Management are taking action to protect the business and will update investors as soon as possible” – any clues as to what this might entail? One might assume that Coronavirus would significantly impact on claims on all of the major risks that they cover: hospital in-patient admissions and out-patient consultations; convalescence at home following a period of in-patient admission; and ultimately death. Surely the last thing any insurer would want to do under these current circumstances is expose themselves to even more of these risks – but their recent marketing has enabled companies to purchase temporary cover for staff. Isn’t that tantamount to promoting buildings insurance just before a typhoon is about to hit?

[sniffer5] 19/3/2020 15:41

hxxps://www.personalgroup.com/resources/news/important-message-from-personal-group-chief-executive-deborah-frost
I wonder whether they are reinsured for hospital cash and convalescence. I think I read something in their accounts that they don’t purchase reinsurance for this risk. Does anyone know?

[sniffer5] 16/3/2020 18:09

Coronavirus – likely to have a double impact: 1) Serious concerns over the effect of the pandemic on the incidence of hospital cash and death claims. I don’t believe that they have a pandemic exclusion within any of their insurance plans. If their claims just doubled their profits would all but disappear. 2) Government has just announced plans to encourage working from home wherever possible. Will they therefore have any employees to actually see and will employers (actively trying to promote social distancing) permit their insurance sales people into their factories and workplaces?

[sniffer5] 27/2/2020 17:08

I wonder how Coronavirus will impact upon hospital inpatient claims?

[topvest] 19/1/2020 18:24

Nice to see this bounce back. Lots of potential if the new CEO delivers!

[2lb] 15/11/2019 18:20

I think PGH are in trouble here.

The CEO appointment was strange at the time and smacked a little of desperation.

If the Board, and notably the NEDs, have some grit about them then they will bite the bullet and make a change sooner rather than later and admit the appointment hasnt worked out.

[sniffer5] 26/9/2019 15:53

Share price continues to slide - down another 2p today already. There previous CEO identified a need for new clients and yet they went and appointed someone without any insurance background. Very strange decision.

[sniffer5] 18/9/2019 15:50

The latest interims released yesterday look very poor. Gross premiums are down 3% and by their own statement likely to fall further over the rest of the year and 2020. Despite falling premiums their insurance operating expenses rocketted as a percentage of premium from 49.09% to 54.69%. The non insurance part of their business is low margin and unless they can resurrect their insurance arm I see little growth.
Any thoughts?