Personal Share Discussion Threads

[nicksig] 02/12/2020 10:41

Must be a background buyer as sells absorbed and bid ticking up

[scepticalinvestor] 02/12/2020 09:37

Mostly buys this am (207+)

[nicksig] 02/12/2020 08:04

Another good start to the day

[nicksig] 01/12/2020 11:02

Nice intra-day auction and another tick-up

[nicksig] 01/12/2020 07:09

Yep I agree

[scepticalinvestor] 30/11/2020 18:08

Could very well be right.This is extremely oversold and one to hold. Will at least be a 1 bagger and with divis thrown in for good measure, what's not to like?

[nicksig] 30/11/2020 16:38

Yep. I’m also sceptical of posters who create an avatar simply to post on one company that is pretty much under the radar for most. Previous employee perhaps?

[scepticalinvestor] 30/11/2020 16:36

yes, looks like all the weak holders sold off last week.looking very likely that a re-rate is in the way

[nicksig] 30/11/2020 16:28

Lubbly jubbly

[nicksig] 30/11/2020 11:08

Hopefully 200p was the bottom

[nicksig] 30/11/2020 10:30

Bought a small amount this morning

[scepticalinvestor] 28/11/2020 13:25

not too sure I agree there sniffer.cant see these dropping much more tbh

[eezymunny] 27/11/2020 17:07

Gross premiums written had seen some very small falls but generally things were steady.

The future may be different of course but simply looking at the very short covid infested term is plain daft.

[sniffer5] 27/11/2020 16:41

Understood - but their book of business was already decreasing year on year prior to Covid lockdowns ie: policies were lapsing faster than they could enrol new business. If their book of business falls to £20m by the end of 2021 it might take 5+ years for it to recover. In the meantime they are facing increased competition and regulation across their business.

[eezymunny] 27/11/2020 16:32

The thing is sniffer all that is largely irrelevant. Any share should be valued on the discounted sum of it´s future cash flows. PGH may well have a lean spell for a year or two, but you must consider what comes after that in order to value the shares.

If profits go 10m (last year) to zero (this year) then continue at 10m pa into the future after that, you should just knock off a bit less than 1 from your PE based valuation.

The EV is less than 50m here, which is very cheap if profits bounce back to 10m pa after a lean spell. The downside is if profits don´t bounce back...

[sniffer5] 27/11/2020 16:12

I still think their shares will fall further. Highly likely that new insurance business will have dried up almost totally since mid March 2020 and with the latest news on tiered Covid restrictions it is unlikely now to resume until at least late Spring 2021. That will have resulted in 15 months of no or virtually no new business. I suspect that their natural policy lapse rate on their existing book of business is around 2%-2.5% per month. So on their 2019 £30m book of business they will be losing between £0.5m-£0.75m per month - resulting in a likely £7.5m-£11m drop. That will represent a massive fall. Frankly the rest of their business (Lets Connect, Hapi etc) is largely unprofitable - it's all about their insurance business.
I suspect the people really in the know are selling, whilst a few new members of the board (with little experience of this type of insurance) have had their arms twisted to buy.

[scepticalinvestor] 27/11/2020 14:20

interesting - still heavy selling

[scepticalinvestor] 26/11/2020 16:39

slowly moving upwell run company - will just take patience imo

[farrugia] 26/11/2020 15:05

i bought a few here. directors adding.

[sphere25] 25/11/2020 14:20

Really bad but this time around others had issues too:

"Investors have been left furious at missing out on the chance to trade after online share dealing platforms struggled to cope with demand as stock markets soared on Covid-19 vaccine hope.

Customers of Hargreaves Lansdown, Fidelity, AJ Bell and iWeb tweeted their complaints, having been left without access to their investment accounts as technical issues dogged the platforms."

This was brutal because we know the covid speculative bubble in the likes of AVCT etc were massively overcrowded so there must have been some nightmare stories about trying to log into the platform let alone actually get out of the shares.

Just feels like abit of a lottery at times going into these very volatile patches. Clearly the market is lovely atm but in the future, more difficult times will arise so despite the euphoria out there, have to be incredibly careful to not leverage up and go absolutely gung ho at times too.

[farrugia] 25/11/2020 14:13

yes i experienced it myself sphere - when the pfizer news came out IG's systems and my watchlists just FROZE. I presume too much activity.

[sphere25] 25/11/2020 14:11

I have been knocking IG of late, not recommending :-)

Pretty much every time there was heightened market volatility, their systems went down. The most crucial of times when you want reliable systems are those periods where you can get absolutely clobbered in no time so any delay is incredibly costly.

It was a really poor showing. We'll have to see how they do going forward but don't have alot to say on the other brokers. Looking around the forums and checking their twitter feeds is one part of the jigsaw in getting a feel for brokers and platforms.

Today funnily enough there are a fair few views on Hargreaves Lansdown here (scroll to the bottom of the analyst comment):

[farrugia] 25/11/2020 13:55

Interesting. Sphere may I ask if you would recommend any other brokers apart from IG?

[sphere25] 25/11/2020 12:38

Not familiar with this one, but going through today's news, it looks interesting.

Market cap £63m

The balance sheet is very clean and tidy with a hefty cash figure of £19m. Operating cash flow of £8.7m last year and £8.3m the year before, the bulk of which flows through to free cash flow allowing very generous dividend payments.

More a steady eddie on the growth front but robust recurring revenue and still comfortable in paying a dividend.

Clearly being held back by the outlook:

"Despite the strong start to 2020, the second half will not be without its challenges. As alluded to above, the inability to write new insurance sales during lockdown will impact premiums in H2 2020 and 2021 in the insurance business. Looking forward into the latter part of 2020 and 2021 the Company, like many UK businesses, may be impacted by a recession following lockdown."

Director buying today which isn't enormous but a possible bullish signal. Currently have sellers in size just under 206 preventing any break higher.

Naturally the question here is at what point does the market stop looking at the present and near term, and begin to price in a recovery like the bulk of the wider market?

More of a short term vs longer term struggle here than other companies judging by the price action. Sometimes it can just be a case of the illiquidity in finding buyers in size (having to drag the price down to anomalous levels) to offset the sellers as per MCL recently, where you then end up with a ferocious rally and re-rating once the sellers are cleared.

It's on the watchlist now. Unsure if it makes a new low first due to the illiquidity or whether the bottom is in here.

All imo

DYOR

[scepticalinvestor] 25/11/2020 11:44

Bizarre with all the buying it opens down!Will be back to 300p by Jan I reckon.