BoE interest rate meeting tomorrow. |
Nothing like a breakout to silence everyone :) |
I’m on about additional properties Bugs. But thanks for the info….
‘ Higher rates for additional properties
You’ll usually have to pay 5% on top of SDLT rates if buying a new residential property means you’ll own more than one.’
300k additional house, stamp duty today is 17.5k in England, and 19.5k in Wales. And from April 1st ? |
Kreaps this might help you
Rates up to 31 March 2025
Property or lease premium or transfer value SDLT rate
Up to £250,000 Zero
The next £675,000 (the portion from £250,001 to £925,000) 5%
The next £575,000 (the portion from £925,001 to £1.5 million) 10%
The remaining amount (the portion above £1.5 million) 12%
Rates from 1 April 2025
Property or lease premium or transfer value SDLT rate
Up to £125,000 Zero
The next £125,000 (the portion from £125,001 to £250,000) 2%
The next £675,000 (the portion from £250,001 to £925,000) 5%
The next £575,000 (the portion from £925,001 to £1.5 million) 10%
The remaining amount (the portion above £1.5 million) 12%
Most home buyers will only be 2.5k worse off,i.e the portion between 125 & 250k is the only bit changing. |
Jefferies cuts Persimmon price target to 1,890 (1,905) pence - 'buy' |
“I think market activity will continue to pick up ahead of the Stamp Duty changes, effective from April, as more buyers try to beat the deadline.”
No tine to complete though. And imagine if there’s a chain. Imagine if the mortgage in principle isn’t already standing by.
And now BuytoLet mortgage rates have gone up. I was looking at 3.5% in December, and now they’re at 4%. The stamp duty is around £2.5k now and something like £11.5k after April.
So I reckon stagnant frozen market from around February. And now the cost to replace a buy to let that you want to sell makes it uneconomical to sell due to the stamp duty increases and capital gains tax. imo |
 Interesting article, carpingtris...
In order to allow more borrowing to help boost the economy, rules which were bought in because of GFC may be relaxed!!!!!
One of the reasons cited is low number of people having homes repossessed or people missing payments.
Let's make the debt crisis even worse and go back to pre-GFC!!!
Great idea. NOT
Mortgage rules could be eased to boost loans
"Strict rules on mortgage lending could be loosened to allow more people to borrow for a home, as regulators respond to a call to boost the economy.
In a newly-published letter, the UK's financial regulator the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) says it will investigate ways to simplify rules brought in following the 2008 financial crisis."
"Strict rules mean lenders have to be sure that people can repay mortgages, testing them for higher rates of interest.
Other rules were also imposed on mortgage providers after the financial crisis almost 20 years ago exposed reckless lending and put major financial institutions at risk.
The FCA points to current low numbers of borrowers missing repayments, or having homes repossessed, as evidence of questioning whether the rules are too strict." |
Mortgage rules could be eased: |
Yeah, that seems correct.
Basically, the stamp duty will increase from Apr 1st, so any sales after Jan will struggle to close by then. That’ll be a downward pressure.
Also, the rise in new instructions is negative (increasing supply).
Hopefully, interest rates will edge downward and counteract those pressures. |
Housing market activity was expected to pick up because of the Stamp Duty changes announced by the Chancellor.
I think market activity will continue to pick up ahead of the Stamp Duty changes, effective from April, as more buyers try to beat the deadline.
The months following the Stamp Duty changes are what matter. I expect market activity to fall back. |
Housing market activity in the UK picked up as 2024 ended and expectations for the year ahead are "solidly positive," surveyors have reported. A net balance of 5% of property professionals reported new buyer inquiries rising rather than falling in December, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Rics, said. Sales volumes have risen, with a net balance of 7% of respondents indicating sale growth, compared with a balance of 1% in November. There was also a bounce in new instructions to sell in December, with a net balance of 14% of professionals seeing rises rather than falls. This is the sixth month in a row where the study has indicated an increase in houses being listed for sale. Rics said that, in general, house prices rose across the UK, with professionals in Northern Ireland and Scotland reporting the strongest price growth. Rics chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said the research points "to a further improvement in sentiment in the housing market". |
Oh, I see where you’re getting confused.
Yes, to meet Labour’s targets.
But, I was just commenting on getting back to similar levels to 2022, which was 212,000 nationally. Currently, we’re on about 180,000. An extra 32,000 homes isn’t that hard.
The article you’ve given talks about getting to 300,000+, so really an additional 140,000 to meet that 1.5 million. That’s night and day compared to what I said. Nobody on this board is saying we have the workers for 300,000+, so not sure why you bring that up or argue against my totally valid point.
Yes, let’s agree to drop this point now. |
ymaheru,
We'll have to agree to disagree.
Previously, pre-brexit, there was freedom of movement. Thousands came over from EU. That freedom of movement no longer exists.
Building 1.5 million homes: great, but where are the workers?
"You see, smashing down the planning deadlock and restrictive environmental rules are all bold steps, but the problem of our worker shortage seems to have gone unaddressed."
"Both on and off sites, migrants are vital to the functioning and flourishing of this country’s built environment. I’ve grown up on sites all my life, and having spoken to the experienced overseas talent our sector boasts, I can tell you: without them, our world-class developments and projects probably wouldn’t have the stellar reputation they hold today.
And they’ll definitely be needed for Labour to meet its housebuilding goals. "
"Overstretched already
Construction and housebuilding’s workforce contains some of the brightest and best that the country has to offer – there’s no doubt about that. But we’re overstretched as it is – and that’s without adding 1.5 million homes to the list or the data centres, laboratories, prisons, offshore wind farms or even Sizewell C Nuclear Power Station that the new Labour government has lined up.
Recent reports have flagged that construction’s workforce has dwindled by 14 per cent since 2019 – and, worse still, the Construction Industry Training Board has predicted we’ll need 251,500 more workers to meet industry output over the next five years. It’s hard to believe the government’s targets are even realistic when you consider these numbers."
"There’s no doubt that the skills upgrade is a fantastic long-term plan – but we won’t be able to get 251,500 more workers through apprenticeships alone. It would require at least two to three years to train them up – and, of course, time to tackle the issue of generating widespread interest in a career in construction, which we’re still grappling with today. It’s just too far-fetched."
BBC
UK 'doesn't have enough builders' for Labour's 1.5m homes |
There’s plenty of capacity. Tradesmen work fewer hours/ days at times like these. Getting 30-40% increase in completions won’t affect a lot. In 2022, all housebuilders wanted workers together also.
So, still can’t see that being an issue. |
ymaheru
"StT, in 2022 PSN build 5000 more houses than this year, so the labour is there to increase completions by 50%."
If HBs want to increase builds then I think there will be a shortage. I think labourers/tradesman would have moved to other jobs/retired/emigrated etc etc.
If several HBs all want more labourers/tradesman then prices will go up, which will increase costs.
Those who have moved on probably will not return unless the pay is good. |
The rise over the last couple of days is not down to just HB TUs. Market sentiment is playing a big part here. Today also Gaza peace deal and main markets rising.
There's still inflationary pressures from UK govn and Trump policies to come down the line.
Best to trade
sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<..>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.
Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability. |
Best to be in a market where there is a shortage of the goods you supply.
As long as you are canny, you should always come up smelling of roses.
GLA. |
StT, in 2022 PSN build 5000 more houses than this year, so the labour is there to increase completions by 50%.
Interest rates are a bigger issue, yes. |
hamhamham,
Yes spike due to lower UK & US inflation figures. Service inflation is still too high though.
Expectation being that BoE will reduce interest rates.
However, both UK and US govn policies are inflationary. Therefore, interest rates will continue to stay higher for longer.
I think it's best to trade HBs. |
ymaheru
If HBs up builds numbers then there will be a shortage of labour, which will result in increase in costs.
sikhthetech - 12 Mar 2024 - 23:09:19 - 5410 of 5913
Immigration/demand.
During GFC there was demand from Europe. Several East European countries joined the EU in 2000-2004 and there was freedom of movement. Post brexit, that freedom of movement no longer exists.
Plus if there was huge demand then why are HBs reducing no of builds? Potential homebuyers can't afford the homes, so HBs reduce the supply. |
Correct, PSN are very self sufficient. |
yma, I have been in the industry for 50 years & trust me suppliers will not be able to keep up, not here or Europe, Brick plants have been closed & built on, I'm not sure many companies will want to expand with a Labour Rule. |
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