Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 05/6/2022 16:36

24th March 2020 - share price £1.24p

sikhthetech - 24 Mar 2020 - 11:18:58 - 25658 of 27855
There you go, TW have closed their sites.
There is likely to be weeks/months of disruption, whether it be via the supply chain or on site.

This is on top of btl investors already selling. I think that will accelerate over the next few months....
Plus they still have to redress the leasehold scandal...

I still think house prices are likely to crash on avg 30-40% over the next couple of years...
END.

30-40% Crash. You have been wrong for over 2 years. You are a proven fool.

Stop spouting the same old BS, the fact remains house prices did not crash over the following 2 years you said they would. Proven fool!

You have Zero credibility and you are an idiot, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 05/6/2022 16:29

KoP,

Interest rates were generally higher in the 90s.. so buyers were used to them..
If interest rates went from 10 to 15 % then the increase was 50%. Now base rates have risen from 0.1% to 1% a 1,000% rise. If mortgage rates rise from 2% to 4% then interest has gone up 100%, so is a more substantial increase.


Also in the 80s/90s most mortgage lending was based on 3-4x single income... so there was headroom, ie increase in wages as inflation was higher and partners could go to work to mitigate the increase in mortgage payments. Now mortgages are lent on 5-6x joint income, so severely reduced headroom to allow for increase in mortgage payments. Also increase in interest rate, taxes, fuel and energy bills impact affordability.



Housing was supported by the govn until Sept 2021. That support has ended.

[kop202] 05/6/2022 16:18

The last two property crashes 1990's ERM crisis...interest rates above 20 per cent2008...Lehrman Bros crisis....sub prime loans galore.....the present economic " crisis" has got to get a lot worse to even come near ....a downturn yes.....but crisis?....errr no...not at the moment

[beckers2008] 05/6/2022 16:12

24th March 2020 - share price £1.24p

sikhthetech - 24 Mar 2020 - 11:18:58 - 25658 of 27855
There you go, TW have closed their sites.
There is likely to be weeks/months of disruption, whether it be via the supply chain or on site.

This is on top of btl investors already selling. I think that will accelerate over the next few months....
Plus they still have to redress the leasehold scandal...

I still think house prices are likely to crash on avg 30-40% over the next couple of years...
END.

30-40% Crash. You have been wrong for over 2 years. You are a proven fool.

Stop spouting the same old BS, the fact remains house prices did not crash over the following 2 years you said they would. Proven fool!

You have Zero credibility and you are an idiot, lol, just lol!

[ashleyjv] 05/6/2022 15:33

Scammers (bradfreddieBrad) are out in force today!! Don't get scammed

[sikhthetech] 05/6/2022 14:51

The company's cash and value of land would diminish when there's a housing market crash.

Too many believe house prices won't crash or hope prices don't crash because it's their biggest investment (their home) and they don't want to feel poorer. It's the mindset..

Similar comments were made before the last housing market crash but it didn't stop it..

Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease...


sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>

When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[ymaheru] 02/6/2022 18:48

…plus £1.3 billion cash.

[turvart] 02/6/2022 18:30

Don't you think your over thinking this cooling down of the housing market? I wouldn't let it prevent you from buying into a bloody good company with solid fundamentals and over 88000 plots on the books for future development.

From an Investment decision PSN has a relatively low PE ratio of approx 9, Net assets of 3.6 BLN of which is not to be sniffed at given the MCAP is only 7 BLN. The EPS is growing year on year and PSN look strong to continue their dividend policy of which at these share price levels is well over 10% and IMO it will not get cut but actually increase.

PSN certainly has a solid place in my portfolio.

[ymaheru] 30/5/2022 15:37

They’re predicting house prices growth will slow to just 3% later in year. Not quite a crash, but I think PSN’s share price suggested most investors are bracing for one.

[sikhthetech] 30/5/2022 14:58

There you go, as expected, more sellers cutting asking prices ...asking prices falling..

Watch the supply rise and the demand fall...housing market crash..
;-)




UK housing market starts to slow as more sellers cut prices
Data from portal Zoopla also indicates average time to sell a home is lengthening




sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 6935 Edit
<...>
When house prices crash, the asking price sees the biggest falls, as buyers ask for bigger discounts.

<...>

[sikhthetech] 30/5/2022 14:57

Not surprising the Help to Buy scheme is closing early..

As mentioned before, it's a toxic scheme which will hit homeowners who used it very hard with 10-12% interest rates on the equity loan because of inflation.
As an equity loan, it has increased in line with the house price..

The equity loan was upto 20% or 40% in London. That's a huge loan and for many who needed a loan to help buy a property. ie those who would have been stretched without it..
;-)

Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease... housing market crash...

[porsche1945] 30/5/2022 08:28

The US listed builders shares have been decimated, its like they are expecting a 2007 style property meltdown, maybe everything that its put on during covid is lost, would make sense, U.K. hasnt had same price explosion and taxes at 70 year highs and cost of living etc, country in recession by fourth quarter, I’m guessing its topped out and looking at a 10/15 pc pull back by winter. Persimmon builds cheap crxp in the north so should be ok.

[ymaheru] 24/5/2022 13:50

Scrwal, thanks for that.

6% divs aren’t bad, anyway.
Personally, I’m happy without share buybacks.

[scrwal] 24/5/2022 13:21

ymaheru

This is the quote
"On 2 March 2022, the Board re-iterated its intention to return 235p per share in 2022. The first payment of the regular annual distribution of 125p per share was made on 1 April 2022 (rather than July 2022 as originally intended)"

followed by
"The Board remains committed to its well-established strategy of returning capital that is surplus to the needs of the business to its shareholders. Given the successful trading result of the Group in 2021 and its strong financial position, the Board is pleased to confirm that it will return 110p per share surplus capital on 8 July 2022"

It is only the 125p that is classed as being a regular payment.

There is no current guidance on future returns of capital but the "well established" phrase implies no share buy backs.

[ymaheru] 24/5/2022 08:35

I thought it is thought to be an ongoing div as they call these amounts ‘regular’;:
“…Board re-iterated its intention to return 235p per share in 2022. The first payment of the REGULAR annual distribution…&#8221;

hxxps://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporate/investors/shareholder-centre/capital-return-programme/

They had £1.25 billion cash and generated post tax profit of about what the divs are, so I think it’ll mostly remain, but could be variable in line with profit.

[norry2] 24/5/2022 08:15

Turvart. Yes it is confirmed for this year - but there is no commitment (or guidance I believe) for future years.

[turvart] 23/5/2022 20:02

The Divvy is a regular one. The way they have worded it sounds like a special but what they really mean is excess capital is used to pay the divvy. Technically you can't pay a dividend unless you have the capital to pay (Excess capital).

The Board remains committed to its well-established strategy of returning capital that is surplus to the
needs of the business to its shareholders. Having assessed and concluded on the availability of surplus
capital for 2021, the Board is pleased to re-iterate its intention to return 235p per share in 2022. The
first payment of 125p per share will be made on 1 April 2022 (rather than July 2022 as was originally
indicated) to shareholders on the register on 11 March 2022 as an interim dividend. The second
payment of 110p per share will be made in July 2022 (rather than March 2022 as was originally
indicated), subject to continuous assessment in line with our strategy

Has you can read 110p is confirmed as the payment going Ex-div 16th June with payment 8th July.

This is clearly a firm payment of 110p of which is confirmed.

[scrwal] 22/5/2022 12:52

Norry2

You are correct about the 110p being a "special" being the return of excess capital. As far as I know the upcoming payment is the last of the plan as set up some time ago.

Given that the board paid out the excess as dividends I don't see them using buy backs to return excess capital in the future.

I don't think an extra 110p a year going forward is likely and wouldn't be surprised to see it reduced to say 60p with it being announced when the finals are known each year rather than several years ahead as the current plan did.

[ymaheru] 21/5/2022 19:06

No indication that I know of at all.

[beckers2008] 21/5/2022 18:26

Y,

No? I asked you if PSN have indicated a share buy back?

[norry2] 21/5/2022 17:19

Scrwal - PSN dividends are a bit unusual in that they are part "normal" dividend and part return of excess capital. So in this instance I think any buybacks would bite into the return of excess capital portion of the dividend.

[ymaheru] 21/5/2022 14:26

If you say so.

There’s always a decision of how to use that cash. Increased dividends/ special dividends/ buybacks.

It’s all excess cash, not needed for normal business operations/ growth.