Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[turvart] 18/5/2022 23:37

ymaheru,

You can explain all you like, you obviously don't know what is going on with the property market, it's absolutely on fire, also the interest rates are still seriously low.

With regards £24 I predict before Ex-div, the proof will be in the pudding around that date, so lets see who's right!

[pander45] 18/5/2022 19:24

Loads of new estates near me, lots of different builders and guess what - all pre-sold. Most have gone off plan. No deals. People want houses, simple, they always will.

[ymaheru] 18/5/2022 13:38

Not trying to be rude, so I’ll explain more.

I don’t see any improving factors.

Higher interest rates are discouraging me from investing in property, so heat is being removed from the market. Interest rate rises generally do exert a downward pressure on home prices.

So, I LOVE your view of PSN, but am not convinced.

[ymaheru] 18/5/2022 13:35

Tuvart, I want some of what you’ve had!
At least £24 by June 16th?

[blue59] 18/5/2022 13:30

A month ago that would have been a fair statement re the property market!

[turvart] 18/5/2022 12:41

The property market is a nightmare at the moment, properties are selling fast, I can only imagine PSN homes are sold before built and probably can't keep up with demand, I think there will be a 12 month lag on PSN share price then it will slowly rise and IMO maybe get as high as £40 area. I added to my portfolio again today, this share price is a bargain with how the housing market is going and also 110p divvy EX-div 16th June, will be at least £24 by then AT LEAST!!

[spectoacc] 17/5/2022 12:06

Seems a fair assessment. This struck me:

"...Severe market disruption has been modelled, for example new home sales nearly halving and average selling prices slumping 37%. Even in the event of a complete shutdown of the market i.e. no sales but fixed costs maintained, management says Persimmon would maintain substantial liquidity and a positive cash balance."


Selling prices slumping 37%? Can't see it. Yes, there's a major cost of living crisis, almost unprecedented, but just as with major unemployment crises, commentators forget how binary it is. If you lose your job, you're screwed. If you were just-about-managing, then a doubling, and doubling again, of fuel costs is going to completely sink you.

But for a large number of people, holding on to their jobs during high unemployment, or being comfortable enough to absorb much higher fuel costs, it's largely irrelevant. Those are the people more likely to be setting house prices, not those in rental accommodation struggling already.

Not saying any of these things are good - they're not - nor net positive to house prices. But IMO there's a reason why prices are steady in the midst of the c-of-l crisis.

Pent-up demand, FOMO, and govnt policy trumps hopes of a crash.

I suspect PSN will motor on.

[edmondj] 17/5/2022 11:31

It’s one of the highest-yielding stocks around,

[ymaheru] 14/5/2022 13:09

I bought in this week, after a year on the sidelines. Here’s why:

New home prices don’t drop as much as existing houses in recessions, as they’re less affected by distressed sales.

This is more true than ever now that Persimmon and rivals are (incredibly) well capitalised.

Also, during periods of inflation, property assets usually outstrip the rise in inflation. Certainly in pound terms they tend to (quite easily do so).

PSN has the size and vertical integration to control much of its input costs, and materials costs plummet in recessions.

However, I’m watching closely and might sit out again in a few months because business has been so strong for a long time. Some bad news is factored in, but none has occurred yet. Chances are that there will be some bad news ahead.

[socal1] 13/5/2022 20:39

Scobak, this is why the UK needs quarterly reporting!

[scobak] 13/5/2022 19:58

My my, hasn't this just descended into the lowest quality of board.

[scrwal] 12/5/2022 13:15

Actually Mrsimmons hasn't said the dividend will be cut - he was asking silkthetech about it because of silk's £13 target.

[blue59] 12/5/2022 12:31

Dividend cut didn’t hurt GSK, quite the opposite in fact.

[pander45] 11/5/2022 21:12

The government will NEVER let the housing market collapse. It will wheel out the incentives long before a sniff of that prospect is even in the air.

[thruxie] 11/5/2022 18:36

All the doom and gloom is to some extent already priced in, yes I hear it loud and clear that interest rates are rising but on the other hand there's simply not enough housing for the rising population and buying is still cheaper than renting.

I'd go with a scenario that prices might stay flat for a year or three which in real terms with 7 -8% inflation gives a pause for breath in the market while salaries and RPI catch up.

All in all if there is a crash then PSN will be able to add to it's landbank and holders will win big on the next cycle. I wouldn't be unhappy actually if they cut the divvy and spent it on cheaper valued land.

[karv1] 11/5/2022 16:35

I foresee no dividend cut myself. The shorters keep hoping for a dividend cut.
All I need is the status quo and i am set for life and any extra dividends will be a bonus. 4% to 7% growth targets should help maintain Dividends. Time will tell.

[sikhthetech] 11/5/2022 15:31

Mrsimmons
"When do you think the dividend will be cut?"

I think it'll be fy2022. If they see a downturn in H2-2022 then maybe for H1-2022, usually published in August.

[daler1966] 10/5/2022 20:52

This divi stock just keeps giving

[porsche1945] 10/5/2022 00:32

2woodhawk you sad little peasant, this almost now down to my target price, just as I said when it was 2800. Love it hahaha

[scrwal] 09/5/2022 13:16

A cut is probable after the final 110p of the Capital Return Programme is made. No guidance has been issued about a new programme and given the effects of the last 2 years it is unrealistic to expect 110p to be paid yearly. Hopefully it could be 60p but even that could be optimistic.

[mrsimmons] 09/5/2022 08:39

Sikhthetech. When do you think the dividend will be cut? Presumably you do hence the 13.00 price target.