Davius
Not at all.
VTY profit warnings started in Nov.
The newsflow on HBs has been as expected.
I maintain a negative stance on HBs.
Labour are in power for 4+ years. |
 Kicked in the nuts by the Vistry profit warning I think...
On the downside, builders were knocked by another profit warning from Vistry.
Shares in Kent-based Vistry plunged 16% after it warned of delays to expected year-end transactions and completions, which are now expected in 2025.
The builder, recently relegated to the FTSE 250, expects 2024 adjusted pretax profit to be around GBP250 million, down from previous guidance of around GBP300 million. The company reported adjusted pretax profit of GBP419.1 million in 2023, so this year's result will be down 40%.
It cut its profit expectations to GBP350 million from GBP430 million in early October, before a further cut to GBP300 million in November.
Anthony Codling at RBC Capital Markets said: "On a day when most are winding down or driving home for Christmas, Vistry delivered a present with a sting in its tail, another profit warning, the third and hopefully final one for this year."
"A combination of internal and external factors led to a challenging fourth quarter, and we expect Vistry will be looking forward to seeing the back of 2024, taking some time out and starting afresh in 2025."
Peel Hunt said 2024 has turned into something of an "annus horribilis" for Vistry.
Analysts at Davy Research downgraded the stock to 'neutral'.
"With further cracks appearing in the investment thesis as the UK market continues to struggle, we downgrade the stock to neutral, despite there still being some upside to our price target (773 pence). In the short term, earnings volatility is likely to remain high, and we will wait for some stability and clarity in future earnings and strategy before returning to the investment case."
A report in the FT said UK listed housebuilders are on track to build the fewest new homes for sale in a decade, as planning rules and high mortgage rates hold the market back despite the new Labour government's push to increase housing supply.
The sector, excluding Vistry which focuses on affordable and rental housing, is forecast to complete just over 50,000 homes this year, the lowest level of output since 2013, according to a FT analysis of figures for seven companies compiled by Investec.
Persimmon fell 2.4%, Barratt Redrow was up 0.4% and Taylor Wimpey declined by 1.5%. |
Formally reject UK citizenship because deliberate failure by authorities to act against financial corruption and theft
Failure to act on
Corrupt bonuses by directors following tax payer bailout of their businesses
Protecting shareholders from director fraud
Corrupt tax avoiding landlords stealing from tax payer
Corrupt lawyers defending tax avoiding landlords and their theft of the clean green energy money
Actions by banking sector/tax avoiding investors to make Gov/political system think it has to support property prices with tax payer money so paving way for unchallengeable permanent ruling property owning class
religions failure to raise a peep , apparent inability to make moral judgements
Organised gangs operating in small cap sector with affiliations and tax avoider connections behaving illegally and criminally with impunity
The failure to build the clean energy infrastructure making the world a more dnagerous place
Failure to check political power such that a whole generation of public school chumps have acted primarily for tax avoiders and tax avoiding landlords.
The use of Royals to bolster the unquestioning of the austerity theft (or be threatened lose the divvy)
Failure to build the clean green energy making us less able to defend ourselves and more likely to be put into a longer period of instability or war
(the consequences of that will be further theft of Govs ability to do the right thing at the right time and further empowering of tax avoiding landlords- who lack quorum of brain cells)(and further theft with impunity from shareholders by tax avoiding gangs) (or even Govs being forced to accept loans from international tax avoiding landlords whose very assets we bailed out and received no back payment for)
THIS THEFT AND CHAOS IS ENTIRELY DELIBERATE and AVOIDABLE
see biggest lies thred and Lenigas
DO SOMETHING USELESS AUTHORITY. SCARED OF BLAIR CAMERON AMD CROWN ESTATE RHUGS . WHICH SIDE ARMY AND POLICE ? Much easier to bully pretending don't understand
What about Australia house - you support Lenigas thefts |
Good TU from BDEV & co |
"Beckers2008 - 16 Dec 2024 - 11:02:34 - 20316 of 20402
BoE base rate on hold for December..." END.
I am correct yet again.
"Beckers2008 - 02 Sep 2024 - 11:10:39 - 5689 of 5788
Remember my statement...
BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.
Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!
I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024.
I am correct again!!
The latest cut will be followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.
Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.
Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!" |
Interest rates held over inflation and wage growth concerns.
"UK interest rates will remain at 4.75% until at least next February after the Bank of England voted to hold borrowing costs.
In its final meeting of the year, the Bank's rate-setting committee decided against further cuts after recent figures showed an increase in both inflation and wage growth."
sikhthetech - 07 Nov 2024 - 12:15:02 - 5790 of 5831 PERSIMMON PLC
There you go...
as predicted, budget inflationary, so rates will stay higher for longer |
awful looking chart and gapped down today but as expected with US indices futures tumbling after FED announcement . Might get to £10 chart support in due course |
Sikhthetech,
I qoute you...
"Jugears/Becky and their mates have been completely wrong. I hope no one followed their BS." END.
I was wrong to recommend investors to buy TW. at 86p? |
Seems to be in this sideways trend of circa 1200-1300p at present. It will break one way or the other but honestly do feel this is extremely good value. |
The newsflow here has been as predicted.
BoE interest rate meeting this week. I'm expecting rates to remain unchanged.
The Govn budget didn't help HBs.
After 2.5 yrs the share price continues to trade within the target range I mentioned 2.5yrs ago.
Jugears/Becky and their mates have been completely wrong. I hope no one followed their BS.
sikhthetech - 31 Dec 2023 - 14:52:06 - 5108 of 5660 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS - PSN
<...>
Opinion: "inflationary Pressures leading to interest rate rises", 6 months before the BoE started raising interest rates
Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons
Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!
Opinion: Expecting some properties to crash around 40%.
REITS sold some 137 at average 68% loss!!
Opinion: Demand will fall
Property transactions have been falling
Opinion: Trading whilst keeping a negative stance on the property market:
Shorting HBs then trading.
Interest rate will stay higher for longer:
etc |
This is performing poorly compared with other builders. |
And now people won't afford renting let alone buying.
Stocks red as UK consumer confidence erodes
(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London were down at midday on Monday, while in corporate news Videndum shares fell after its trading update disappointed.
UK consumer confidence deteriorated in December, data published by S&P Global showed.
The UK S&P Global consumer sentiment index fell to 46.6 in December from 46.9 in November. The spending sentiment index contracted to 39.7 from 40.4. Perhaps more positively, the labour market sentiment index rose to a 5-month high of 54.4 in December from 53.9 in November.
"The high cost of living has led to a continued erosion of disposable income, as households are experiencing a more pronounced decline in available cash for spending and are increasingly relying on their savings to meet their expenses. Households have indicated a greater need for borrowing to sustain their standard of living, with December seeing a further and more significant accumulation of debt, which will only add to the financial pressures faced by households," said Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. |
"Starmer's plan to solve housing crisis faces first big test"
Starmer solved the migrant crisis by cancelling Rwanda and losing £500 million and paying 11 million per month to house illegals in hotels.
Starmer will solve the housing crisis by freezing any building and handicaping people to buy with higher interests, by losing their jobs etc.
So Labour is doing everything it can to solve many problems.
Basically anything they touch becomes a disaster.
I cannot see any industry, let alone housing, working properly at all with this present government. |
Article on govn plans to push through planning
What's interesting from article:
Quinn Estates are planning to build 8,400 homes. That is not far off the 10k TW/PSN build nationally in the entire year!!
The Govn are taking control and forcing builders to build. As expected.
The govn don't want developers sitting on land with pp. Therefore, forced development on the way. as expected.
Starmer's plan to solve housing crisis faces first big test
"But at the eleventh hour it was "called in" by Housing Secretary Angela Rayner. This means the government will take over the planning application rather than let the local authority decide."
"Adam Hug from the Local Government Association said: "People cannot and do not live in planning permissions".
He said local authorities should be given greater powers to force developers to build once they had secured planning permissions, rather than sitting on the land."
"During the consultation phase, local councils told the government its housebuilding plan was "unrealistic" and "impossible to achieve"." |
Let's hope we get a Christmas rally |
Shorts beginning to close which should give some momentum for a higher share price |
In the UK there were signs of life in the housing market as mortgage approvals reached the highest level since the summer of 2022 last month.
According to Bank of England figures, some 68,300 mortgage approvals for house purchases were recorded in October, marking the highest monthly total since August 2022, when 72,200 mortgages got the green light.
Meanwhile, property website Zoopla predicted the number of houses sales will rise 5% over 2025, increasing to 1.15 million.
Across the UK, property values are expected by Zoopla to increase by 2.5% on average during 2025, based on certain assumptions around mortgage rates.
Housebuilders failed to take too much heart from the news posting modest gains. Persimmon rose 0.2%, Barratt Redrow 1.0% and Taylor Wimpey 0.8%. |
Now that made me giggle :) |
Who will motion a 'vote of no confidence?'
It'll be suicidal if anyone does so early in a govn term. |
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