Shorts beginning to close which should give some momentum for a higher share price |
In the UK there were signs of life in the housing market as mortgage approvals reached the highest level since the summer of 2022 last month.
According to Bank of England figures, some 68,300 mortgage approvals for house purchases were recorded in October, marking the highest monthly total since August 2022, when 72,200 mortgages got the green light.
Meanwhile, property website Zoopla predicted the number of houses sales will rise 5% over 2025, increasing to 1.15 million.
Across the UK, property values are expected by Zoopla to increase by 2.5% on average during 2025, based on certain assumptions around mortgage rates.
Housebuilders failed to take too much heart from the news posting modest gains. Persimmon rose 0.2%, Barratt Redrow 1.0% and Taylor Wimpey 0.8%. |
Now that made me giggle :) |
Who will motion a 'vote of no confidence?'
It'll be suicidal if anyone does so early in a govn term. |
Should be a 1 year voting change of mind policy on newly elected Labour Party. That way they would have to stick to manifesto |
Fortunately, in the UK, there is something called a vote of no confidence. |
GFC was under Labour's watch.
Tories had to increase taxes to pay for GFC.
Tories also introduced Help to Buy.
HBs made hundreds of millions pounds from that scheme, which ended 2 years ago.
Huge crisis, govn, businesses, individuals building up over the last 15years.
Labour now in charge for 4+years.
Hope no one got enticed in by baseless ramping by jugears and beckers |
Yeah…cos the Tories did a bang up job…austerity ( killed growth and led to brexit ) erosion of civil liberties during covid, woke madness, high taxes…Labour just carrying on where previous axxholes left off. As for this, next support is at 9.80. Oh dear. |
Just the market? |
The market HATES this government! |
Not at all convinced. Time will tell. |
Interest rates are at an inflection point of rising, you can see they want to rise everywhere, as evidenced by 10 and 2 year bond yields blowing out over the last month, mortgages are going to be getting a lot more expensive. What a short these U.K. builders will be.2008-12 revisited. |
Hardly. A one off 0.3 above target without any contextual trend is clearly not a huge issue. It's a reflection of a seasonal rise in energy prices. Plain and simple. |
‘Inflation Accelerates Sharply’ is how the FT describes it |
Not particularly poor data, all energy prices. |
Looks like decent inflation figures coming. |
 eyeQ: this housebuilder stock is cheap
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Now it’s spotted an appealing valuation in a popular sector.
19th November 2024 11:19
by Huw Roberts
from eyeQ
Persimmon
Macro Relevance: 66%
Model Value: 1,482.48p
Fair Value Gap: -17.7% discount to model value
Yesterday’s weekly Top 10 post highlighted Taylor Wimpey, which screens as cheap to the broad macro environment. But with eyeQ model value moving lower, our smart machine has yet to fire a bullish signal despite appealing valuations.
Persimmon also screens as cheap – it sits nearly 18% below eyeQ model value. And, with PSN, model value has stopped falling and has now bounced in recent days.
Model value has risen from a local low of 1,440p at the end of last week to 1,482p today. eyeQ’s sister company Qi is used by professional fund managers and, for them, that three-day bounce in macro conditions is sufficient for them to consider taking action and buying the dip.
Time-poor retail investors who monitor markets less closely, may want to wait a little longer to see if this improvement in the macro environment continues.
But the basic point holds. After nearly two months when macro conditions were deteriorating, things may be changing.
Perhaps the wait for the Budget is finally over. Maybe, even with money markets discounting less rate cuts from the Bank of England, the uncertainty around the UK’s fiscal outlook has cleared and the homebuilders’ sector can move on to focus on new stories, including possibly a green light for more building projects. |
Are we in for a blue day! |
CRST update tomorrow |
From hells heart I stab at thee, for hates sake I spit my last breath at thee |
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