Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 20/4/2022 09:41

Highly competitive sectors (which streaming had certainly become) tend to trade on much lower multiples than 20, more like 10. Intense competition squeezes margins. The only hope is that eventually a couple of rivals exit the space (possibly Apple TV who seem a bit small scale) or there is some consolidation, leaving Netflix once again as the clear market leader.

[rickyl1] 20/4/2022 09:31

Allowing ads on Netflix is a bit of a gamble. Do they lose subs because of it or do they gain subs because they can use revenue to limit future price rises or even reduce current ones ? I wonder if we'll see some m&a activity in this sector soon, it's heavily competitive right now.

[williamcooper104] 20/4/2022 08:55

They were guiding 2m subscriber growth and only gained 500k if you adjust for Russia 's 700k loss Forward guidance is now for another 2m loss and it's that as much as current miss that's spooked the market Question will be whether lower tier pricing and advertising can restart the growth engine - if it goes low to no growth then PE ought to be around 20 and not current level of 24 - GOOG trades at just over 20x

[winski] 20/4/2022 08:29

I like the last line in this article. In Bill I trust, and I have to believe he has the fundamentals right when choosing to add netflix. I'd be surprised if he wasn't a buyer.

[rickyl1] 20/4/2022 08:01

Yes, think I read 700 000 subs lost in Russia.Was a strange one for Ackman, hope he secretly sold before earnings but I doubt it.

[thruxie] 20/4/2022 07:28

Netflix suspended their services in Russia and that'd more than account for the 200k lost subscriptions? The news articles I've read don't seem to mention that.

[williamcooper104] 19/4/2022 23:28

Yep; agree and looked at NFLX again but couldn't see the attraction Even after tonight's fall it's still something like 24x forward PE

[riverman77] 19/4/2022 22:53

I must admit I was never happy with the Netflix addition - for me, it was a very obvious short and not at all surprised at the latest fall.

[williamcooper104] 19/4/2022 22:01

Oops - NFLX timber Down 25 percent post market

[rambutan2] 13/4/2022 17:18

Includes a para on its largest holding, PSH:

[mozy123] 06/4/2022 13:50

Agree BB are just noise usually.

[thruxie] 04/4/2022 13:04

My mistake with PSH has been to top slice a couple of times when it got to be 40% of my portfolio. Now it's at 14% and I did add back in March on the recent dip, however like others here I worried more about the performance fee rather than think about the fact I'm 100% up over 2 years. The conclusion for me seems to be read less bulletin boards, invest, then go on holiday for a few years.... :)

[topvest] 30/3/2022 10:26

I'm happy to hold and maybe add some more after a poor year as Bill Ackman has an exceptional record. He's a pretty good stock picker as well. He only realy got in trouble shorting which he has now stopped. The assymmetric reward hedges are fantastic. He seems to be leading the way on these!

Does anyone know how the high water mark is calculated for performance fees? Not very good that it doesn't appear to be disclosed.

[donald pond] 30/3/2022 09:29

Yes and over the last decade after fees the SPX has outperformed PSH. But he earns his corn when the market is weak. Up 7.7% this year to date from swaptions is a great call

[williamcooper104] 30/3/2022 08:58

One commentator on the FT article pointed out that Ackman was much better on big picture macro calls than individual stock picks - which is probably right But yep you won't get the tail risk hedges in any other listed fund - there's a few US ETFs that try to do it with SPY and VIX calls but they've not matched PSHs performance and as a European investor (despite brexit - where's it when you actually need it) you can't buy most US ETFs unless you've got EUR 10m of gross liquid assets (though you can write options on them if you want to blow your brains out)

[williamcooper104] 30/3/2022 08:54

It's 16 percent as well You could argue that it's a reason for some of the discount - but as I've bought into the discount it doesn't bother me They accrue it into NAV (unlike another holding of mine that didn't do that)

[rickyl1] 30/3/2022 08:51

Not a fan of performance fees, we don't get a refund when they lose money but in this case its been worth paying for the hedges etc. You just don't get that stuff in normal funds/trusts.It can be quite volatile, overshooting sentiment but seems to stay within an acceptable range.

[donald pond] 30/3/2022 08:26

Yes, fees a little bit annoying but its massively outperformed Fundsmith even after fees.

[topvest] 30/3/2022 08:07

Yes, always an interesting read. Only issue is the eye watering performance fees.

[ceaserxzy] 30/3/2022 07:38

Another 4% up in NAV in less than a week. What not to like for such a high performance trust selling at over 30% discount?

[williamcooper104] 30/3/2022 05:14

Bill Ackman to abandon public battles for quieter investment approach https://on.ft.com/3uE4qkv Gift link for first three clicks - so don't open if you subscribe to the FT

[rambutan2] 30/3/2022 04:05

Yes, includes info beyond y/e and up to 22nd of this month:

[rickyl1] 29/3/2022 23:30

Nav as of March 29th £43.89Published earlier than usual for some reason.Annual report on the website is an interesting read as usual.

[f56] 29/3/2022 16:51

Assuming the new Biden tax incentives don’t destroy the economy!

[f56] 29/3/2022 16:35

Also the rate of growth of the small dividend exceeds the large dividend in the long term.