Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[rickyl1] 11/5/2022 09:48

Share buyback announced. To a maximum of the greater of $100m or 10m shares.

[thruxie] 09/5/2022 13:53

I'm reading him loud and clear Ricky, another interest rate bet is a winner :)

[rickyl1] 09/5/2022 12:01

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1523132952514813952?t=8g64zCagr1K2amyb6MAI_w&s=19Interesting tweet from Bill, I hope he's trying to tell us something.

[riskvsreward] 30/4/2022 20:18

Hope the cash from selling nflx can be deployed profitably. He has been proven to be right to cut the loss and not to double down on nflx.

[topvest] 30/4/2022 19:41

I believe his long-term record (2004-2022) is 16.4% per annum versus 10.2% for the S&P. It's certainly a record I would be proud of, particularly given its net of some enormous fees.

[williamcooper104] 25/4/2022 23:16

Yep - if he just held BRK and SPY and then overlaid the macro hedges probably would have done better

[topvest] 25/4/2022 18:57

Well said!

[thruxie] 25/4/2022 14:29

Outperformed the S&P by 50% over 5 years. Think how well he'd have done if he was a good stock picker.

[topvest] 25/4/2022 13:46

I think that's possibly a tad harsh. Everyone makes mistakes. His win rate is quite high.

[apollocreed1] 25/4/2022 13:31

I sold out of this. Don't care how large the discount is. Netflix is a mistake that should never have been made. Bill's not a good stockpicker, although I respect his use of options to hedge downside risk, but that's the only good part of the portfolio.

[williamcooper104] 21/4/2022 09:40

The other important thing - is that while the NFLX position was large, relative to NFLXs size it was liquid so Bill A could get out - further proof of good risk management Have added some PSH this morning

[williamcooper104] 21/4/2022 07:25

That's the upside of having such a large discount to NAV

[williamcooper104] 21/4/2022 07:17

Excellent - no double down - learn from past mistakes

[rambutan2] 21/4/2022 02:52

No dilly-dallying for Bill:

"One of our learnings from past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis. That is why we did so here."

[thruxie] 20/4/2022 17:41

All tech stocks seem to be having a bad day, they're well spooked. Surprisingly PSH 'only' down 1.69%

[williamcooper104] 20/4/2022 15:13

Super timber Now down nearly 40 percent and 19 PE

[williamcooper104] 20/4/2022 15:05

There's the problem - apple can happily keep their service going as a loss leader

[williamcooper104] 20/4/2022 15:04

I think the idea is that they go for a lower priced service that has adds so as to be competitive against cheaper streamers while keeping a de-cluttered premium product

[riverman77] 20/4/2022 09:41

Highly competitive sectors (which streaming had certainly become) tend to trade on much lower multiples than 20, more like 10. Intense competition squeezes margins. The only hope is that eventually a couple of rivals exit the space (possibly Apple TV who seem a bit small scale) or there is some consolidation, leaving Netflix once again as the clear market leader.

[rickyl1] 20/4/2022 09:31

Allowing ads on Netflix is a bit of a gamble. Do they lose subs because of it or do they gain subs because they can use revenue to limit future price rises or even reduce current ones ? I wonder if we'll see some m&a activity in this sector soon, it's heavily competitive right now.

[williamcooper104] 20/4/2022 08:55

They were guiding 2m subscriber growth and only gained 500k if you adjust for Russia 's 700k loss Forward guidance is now for another 2m loss and it's that as much as current miss that's spooked the market Question will be whether lower tier pricing and advertising can restart the growth engine - if it goes low to no growth then PE ought to be around 20 and not current level of 24 - GOOG trades at just over 20x

[winski] 20/4/2022 08:29

I like the last line in this article. In Bill I trust, and I have to believe he has the fundamentals right when choosing to add netflix. I'd be surprised if he wasn't a buyer.

[rickyl1] 20/4/2022 08:01

Yes, think I read 700 000 subs lost in Russia.Was a strange one for Ackman, hope he secretly sold before earnings but I doubt it.

[thruxie] 20/4/2022 07:28

Netflix suspended their services in Russia and that'd more than account for the 200k lost subscriptions? The news articles I've read don't seem to mention that.

[williamcooper104] 19/4/2022 23:28

Yep; agree and looked at NFLX again but couldn't see the attraction Even after tonight's fall it's still something like 24x forward PE