Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[rickyl1] 14/2/2022 08:32

Still building position. Also restored 60% of the interest rate hedge.

[raj k] 14/2/2022 07:56

Anyone have any thoughts on this undisclosed position that is mentioned in the slides. It falls under 2021 so a bit confused unless they are still building it?

[rambutan2] 12/2/2022 22:13

Some up-to-date info to sink your teeth into:

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2022 23:29

Yep VIX fallen below 20 for first time in a while

[bmel] 09/2/2022 16:53

Nice move up today. Looks like the volatility is US markets is reducing considerably. Plus 9% bounce on Chipotle results amidst a field of green in our portfolio.

I expect a steady recovery from here.

[donald pond] 02/2/2022 07:41

NFLX up another 7% yesterday, UMG up 5%, would be good to see this back towards ATHs

[williamcooper104] 01/2/2022 08:58

It was never great but do wonder why still subscribe

[apple53] 31/1/2022 22:20

PPS
Using Marketscreener, at 427 Netflix trades at 17.6x 2024 EV/Ebitda and 23.2x 2024 eps.
This is after the very recent 15% reduction in eps forecasts.
So I would say the market is assuming either that the 2024 forecast is wrong or, more likely, that there will be double digit eps growth for another c. 5 years thereafter before the business 'matures'.

[apple53] 31/1/2022 22:14

PS Bill mentioned "attractive valuation", but didn't mention valuation once thereafter in the letter.
It's a remarkably open letter in most (other) respects, so I assume that he purposefully hasn't mentioned valuation for his own reasons - whether to avoid complicated figures, not to set a precedent, not to give away secrets, or whatever.

A further 10% jump in Netflix's share price (or even less) in the near term, apart from providing a monstrous IRR, should make a disciplined manager consider shrinking a rather large position. This could fund a cheeky buyback. Just 10% of the Netflix position would fund a repurchase larger than most months' volume (as visible on LSE site). Feel free to disagree with my sums

[apple53] 31/1/2022 22:01

thanks for all the thought-provoking commentary

I really wanted to top up, had more compelling places to put my tiny cash reserve, and then saw the sub-£26 price thursday morning, but by the time I looked again it was up a quid..... There have been other chances since, but I'm only really catching up on PSH now.

Tracking the NAV, 40.15 (18th) fell to 36.54 last Tuesday's close. I don't know how much the hedges increased in value over the previous few days but in any event this would have been captured in Tuesday's close, obviously reinvested in Netflix (in which PSH would be then have been sitting on a small loss). Since then Netflix is up 17%, which presumably adds around 2pp to NAV, while using Donald's pie chart (THANKS) for the rest, holdings seem to be up an average of c.4%, so I guess we are looking at an NAV closer to 39, but still down ytd.

Given the bounce across the PE trust sector, particularly today, (I know not strictly comparable but they generally have larger discounts than their peers who invest primarily in listed), then 27.7 probably still represents just about the highest discount ignoring some oddballs like IP and Wendel.

So still compelling. However, given the US market rally after the UK close, I imagine PSH will open in the 28s. Is PSH meant to be buying its own shares? I guess it doesn't have any cash, though, if it ploughed everything into Netflix.

[bmel] 31/1/2022 14:55

Netflix soaring again - opening up 7%. Helping us along nicely,

IC demonstrates that some commentators do not like PSH. There is a fair amount of that about going back a long way. Seem not to forgive old mistakes.

Current portfolio is looking good as we emerge from the current correction and post-covid USA.

Added some more this morning.

[ceaserxzy] 31/1/2022 09:47

Very low quality research if it can be called research, as can be seen with the listed portfolio that is way out of date, listing companies that have been sold out and missing out new companies. Just to show that IC has gone down so much in quality that it is hardly worth reading.

[donald pond] 31/1/2022 09:25

I found it online. Nothing you don't know: it's opaque, fees are very high, looks like a focused long only fund but occasionally goes short and other than the Herbalife debacle that can add huge value.

[glawsiain] 31/1/2022 09:15

Anyone get the IC? Apparently there is an article about PSH in it, this week

[donald pond] 28/1/2022 09:43

Saw today that US restaurant sales were 19% above prepandemic levels in December and staffing levels 2.3% lower. Staff getting paid more but I suspect some of the PSH companies are doing very well

[pol123] 27/1/2022 15:42

Hope they have scaled back on Chipotle, reckon they will struggle with higher input costs and are quiet rich

[thruxie] 27/1/2022 15:24

whoever sold PSH this morning must be kicking themselves!

[donald pond] 27/1/2022 15:05

Netflix up 7.7% right now, what a game!

[bmel] 27/1/2022 15:00

Well done anyone that took advantage of this mornings price spook session.

[pol123] 27/1/2022 11:15

Discount to NAV based on £26.50 = 32%

[donald pond] 27/1/2022 10:46

I think everyone agrees Netflix is a great company, the question is about valuation. Sentiment does seem uniformly bearish on it, so who knows?

[williamcooper104] 27/1/2022 10:42

Interesting article on NFLX and blockbuster - it's a great story Alas it was also Carl Icahn greatest investment loss - so hope PSHs investment in NFLX is not in part motivated by the personal https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/22/how-netflix-almost-lost-the-movie-rental-wars-to-blockbuster.html

[riverman77] 27/1/2022 10:21

The big advantage of Netflix is because of its scale and ubiquity, it's able to drum up interest for what are fairly ordinary and cheap shows. A good example was Tiger King last year - if this had been on, say ITV, probably no-one would have noticed it. On Netflix it became a bit of a sensation, and of course people don't want to miss out, so having a Netflix subscription almost becomes obligatory for a lot of people. That has to be a major competitive advantage. That said, wouldn't want to own shares as think it is still expensive and faces increased competition from likes of Disney.

[donald pond] 27/1/2022 08:51

I think the interesting thing about NFLX is the cheaper stuff it makes. 2 of its biggest hits recently have been Money Heist and Squid Games, Spanish and Korean respectively. I suspect that is where it will find growth, as an outlet for the best in global production. Likely to be much more profitable than trying to make blockbusters with A list stars.