Pennant Share Discussion Threads

[dgwinterbottom] 06/11/2012 17:46

Wilmdav......will do!! Iam passed the difficult bit ie: getting the agreement of the Co.!!!!!

[wilmdav] 06/11/2012 14:50

DGW

It would be very interesting to get your take, if eventually successful.

[wilmdav] 06/11/2012 14:43

"The current order book relates largely to UK defence projects and there continue to be some new opportunities from this source despite the budget constraints.
. . . .
The division has a number of contracts with the UK Ministry of Defence ('MOD') for the support of some 200 training aids at MOD establishments throughout the UK. These contracts are due for renewal during 2012 and the MOD, as part of its review of costs, has made the decision to combine our contracts with a number of other similar contracts run by other contractors. The new combined contract is being competitively tendered. This is both a risk and a significant opportunity."

The £13m order book clearly can't include renewal of MoD contracts until or unless they are renewed. Current revenue forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are £14.2m and £14.9m respectively. They might or might not include an assumption of renewal. It seems more likely to me that they do not. PEN has no need to provide 'guidance' that could result in subsequent disappointment and an associated share price nose dive.

[dgwinterbottom] 06/11/2012 14:42

Funnily enough I have requested a copy of the latest broker report only last week. Passed me to their Brokers who appear to be gragging their feet in response

[cfro] 06/11/2012 13:38

Yes good question and perhaps an important one too WJ.

Would love to know the outcome of your fd phone call david if you do get a reply.

[wjccghcc] 06/11/2012 13:32

Perhaps David can ask the FD how much of the order book applies to the MoD training aids when he calls back tomorrow?

[wilmdav] 06/11/2012 13:16

Well done, David

[wilmdav] 06/11/2012 13:15

DGWinterbottom/WJCCGHCC
Posts 329 & 332.

I'd love to know which one of you is closer to being right.
Any ideas on likely broker forecasting policy. Would they assume (a) no renewal, (b) renewal (c)forecasts that fall midway between the two?

[davidosh] 06/11/2012 13:11

I was intrigued by the reporting of the order book for the first time so tried getting hold of the FD. He is away today but will hopefully ring me back in the morning.

[wjccghcc] 06/11/2012 12:53

The MOD tender is for a number of training aids which currently run to March 2013. It's not for any of their large contracts such as Lynx/BAE etc..

With only 5 months left on the MoD training aids, their contribution to the order book is probably quite small.

[shanklin] 06/11/2012 12:20

But maybe I am being overly sceptical.

[shanklin] 06/11/2012 12:10

Yes, I did wonder if they announced the current size of their order book purely because they know a big chunk of it will not be renewed.

If any of the big contacts they have tendered for, that were listed in the H1 results, do not come PEN's way, they will be well covered in saying that shareholders were told all about them.

[dgwinterbottom] 06/11/2012 11:45

The crunch will be the outcome of the tender to MOD for renewal of their existing contract that has been bundled with other suppliers programmes!!

[royaloak] 06/11/2012 11:27

Well done jamielein. No logic to the market sometimes, especially small cap., however that's what gives us opportunities.

[dasv] 06/11/2012 09:25

digital look:-

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-07 12.35 1.12 3.23p 6.0 0.1 +82% 0.66p 3.4%
31-Dec-08 9.84 (0.50) (1.57)p n/a n/a n/a 0.22p 4.0%
31-Dec-09 9.49 0.30 1.00p 6.5 n/a n/a 0.66p 10.2%
31-Dec-10 9.57 0.53 2.01p 7.3 0.1 +101% 1.25p 8.5%
31-Dec-11 10.35 0.70 1.99p 10.4 n/a -1% 1.50p 7.2%


Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-12 14.20 1.51 4.42p 8.6 0.1 +122% 1.80p 4.7%
31-Dec-13 14.91 1.70 4.96p 7.7 0.6 +12% 2.00p 5.3%

Order book at 13m already. New orders of 3.5m. EPS, EPS growth, div growth looks eminently do-able. PEG remains low. Ticks my boxes.

[valustar1] 06/11/2012 09:19

Perhaps they mentioned it due to it being very good and significant

[jamielein] 06/11/2012 09:17

I also had a look and couldn't find any mention of the order book. I wonder why they've mentioned it now and not previously. A little strange.

[shanklin] 06/11/2012 08:46

Is this the first time the size of the order book has been mentioned in an RNS? Its certainly not in the H1 results or the trading statement prior to that.

[cfro] 06/11/2012 08:44

Very good news which now allays any fears any of us had about 'weaker trading'.

[jamielein] 06/11/2012 07:54

I just use my normal stockbroker - pretty much any stockbroker will allow you to buy these. They're not ISA eligible but you can hold them outside an ISA.

[georgeg2] 06/11/2012 07:20

Who can you buy these through... IG don't offer it and can't buy it with my ISA...

[jamielein] 06/11/2012 07:17

Looks like I was lucky with my timing.

Another £3.5m of contracts announced today.

[jamielein] 05/11/2012 08:22

I know I shouldn't buy when things are going down but I think the fundamentals are good so I bought a few this morning. The figures looked too good to pass up.

(Now watch them fall another 20%!)

[ianms2012] 02/11/2012 13:38

Varies.Thank you for the comment. It seems nothing to be concerned about. You made a nice explanation and i for one appreciate it.

[smudgeroo] 02/11/2012 09:25

Yep, it seems we are in good company Jamie :-)