Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[darkinbad] 16/9/2005 07:26

PDG seems to be doing quite well but I still think the slowdown will start to bite soon. Looks like there may have been a sizeable buyer this week or perhaps a large short being covered? Was burnt for 10 points after holding a short over the last results but am now back in for a second attempt. Last results were good and reduction in gearing showed solid progress but I think some of the cost benefits from the merger would have been one offs and will not be repeated. A big portion of the profits seems to come from the higher margin after sales service so we would need to see some reduction in that to see a real fall in prices. New cars are probably tied in to services with PDG for the length of the warranty period so it may take a little while before any real falls materialise.

From a TA point of view, double top formed as well at 390 on closing price chart. Some bearish divergence on RSI (14), MACD and OBV.

Others in the market still seem to be struggling.

From Digital Look's weekly Small Cap Review

"Finally shareholders in car dealership William Jacks took the dire set of first half results in their stride this week, despite the axing of its interim dividend.

William Jacks axed its first half dividend, worth 2.5p per share last time, as pre-tax losses came in at £0.83m for the six months to July from a profit of £0.25m last time. Turnover was barely changed at £96.5m.

The figures were somewhat better than they might have been after William Jacks benefited from the sale of Brighton freehold premises, which added £0.53m to the accounts as well as repaying a loan of £1.62m. "

[mickconn11] 16/8/2005 19:13

Eastbourne. I was short before results around 300p but closed two days before roughly flat because lately I've become an expert on bear squeezes and didn't want to pay any more tuition fee's.

Chart hitting highs, and 20% above results day seems to me like a vicious bear squeeze.

Earnings increase but helped by acquisitions.

UKs biggest car retailer.. HSBC recently said the UK is their worst market worldwide for bad debt.

95% gearing.

5.8% drop in new car registrations.

I went short again last week at 357. Small one and just for starters.

xd on 7th Sept. 4.2pence.

[eastbourne1982] 15/8/2005 11:09

Just topped up my short (quite significantly), initially I went short far too early (in hindsight), now average 3.45p, so whilst I am sitting on a paper loss my target remains under the 3 pound mark.

What is your take mick?

[mickconn11] 12/8/2005 19:02

Takeover. Get with it. Who would take over a company who are exposed as PDG to a consumer slowdown and the level of borrowings that they have.

[mr h] 11/8/2005 23:00

As suggested in the article I think there is more than a good chance of a takeover in the near future. They have posted good news recently but I would be very surprised if this would fully justify the recent rise - watch this space

[darkinbad] 11/8/2005 21:28

Timesonline, Tempus 10 Aug

Pendragon

AMID the slick of oil stocks dominating the lists of share risers yesterday, a company of a rather different sort managed to atract investor support. Shares in Pendragon, the car dealer that was once part of the Williams Holdings empire, rose by nearly 4 per cent. Since the start of the month, the shares have added 18 per cent.

It is the sort of move that might suggest a takeover is in the offing. Anything is possible, of course, but it seems that the share price rise has come because investors have had to get used to the idea that Pendragon is not nearly as exposed to slowing consumer expenditure as they thought.

Interim results posted at the back end of last week highlighted Pendragon strengths and the share price undervaluation. In the context of a 6 per cent fall in new car sales in the first six months of the year, it may have been reasonable to expect Pendragon to suffer. The Longbridge tribulations could have worsened Pendragon's plight, since it operates Rover dealerships. Yet Pendragon sales and profits rose by 10 and 20 per cent respectively. Acquisitions helped, but the 57 per cent increase in the interim dividend sent an unequivocally positive signal about the sustainable nature of the growth achieved at Pendragon.

It would be misleading to suggest that Pendragon was unaffected by the consumer slowdown and the fall in new car sales. It is just that the restructuring of the nation's motor dealerships - spawned by changes to the block exemption rules - is delivering more benefit than is being lost to weakening consumer confidence. Since the company has one of the largest dealerships in the country and yet has a market share of only 3 per cent, the opportunities for further expansion are plain to see.

Pendragon's gearing, which was 140 per cent 12 months ago, has fallen to 95 per cent. By some standards, 95 per cent may appear high, but in the context of Pendragon's cashflow profile it is perfectly manageable. It also leaves it with the financial firepower to continue to consolidate.

Meanwhile, Pendragon shares, giving a 5 per cent dividend yield, remain cheap. Buy.

[jonny wilko] 29/7/2005 11:53

Interims to 30th June must be due soon - last year's were announced 4th August. Price has taken a bit of a dip this morning.

[darkinbad] 14/7/2005 12:54

Questor Column, Telegraph 14 July 05
Stay in gear with Reg Vardy

It's hard to find anyone that has very much nice to say about MG Rover these days. Sir Peter Vardy certainly hasn't, given that his car dealership saw its profits punctured by £2.8m as a result of the carmaker's collapse.

Strip out all of Reg Vardy's other exceptionals though and it emerges that Rover was not the only factor in the profits blip.

Rising interest rates and weakening consumer demand have caused the new car market (which gives Vardy higher margins) to fall for 15 months in a row.

Add in the various loss-making smaller rivals Reg Vardy has vacuumed up over the past two years, plus the difficulty it has had in integrating them, and the underlying picture looks less than sparkling.

It was, however, better than the market feared, which partly explains why the shares rose 13 to 547p yesterday. They were also helped by a higher-than- expected 10pc rise in the payout to shareholders.

Sir Peter also hinted that the road ahead could be less bumpy than expected, reporting that trading in May and June had been better than anticipated.

A rate cut next month would help to rev up sales. Meanwhile, management is cutting costs and squeezing better profits out of recent acquisitions and start-ups.

The company is just shy of its 100 dealerships target and, with net debt of £21m and gearing of 10pc, has plenty of headroom for expansion.

It is also throwing off cash despite the tough trading environment. Trading on 12 times forecast earnings, yielding 3.4pc, the shares are worth holding.

[darkinbad] 14/7/2005 12:51

The Scotsman 14 July 05
Reg Vardy expansion plans

John Bowker


REG Vardy, the Sunderland-based car dealer, said yesterday it was still hoping to expand in Scotland, despite a softening in the marketplace and falling profits.

The company, which has a third of its 98 outlets north of the Border, said Scotland was "a core area". It also focuses on the north-east of England, where it recently bought five dealerships for £15.5 million.

Managing director Robert Forrester conceded the new car market had deteriorated in the past year, putting the blame firmly at the feet of the decline in consumer spending.

"New car sales have not been as good, but if there is a pick-up in the housing market and a cut in interest rates then that could change," he said.

Expectations in the motor industry are for 2.45 million new cars to be sold this year - down from 2.57 million last year.

Reg Vardy said pre-tax profits had fallen 4 per cent to £43.8m in the year to the end of April, as slowing demand translated into lower prices.

Meanwhile, car parts and bicycle retailer Halfords kept sales heading in the right direction, today posting a 2.7 per cent rise in like-for-like business.

The sales improvement, which came despite a "more challenging retail climate", proved sufficient to send Halfords shares more than 3 per cent higher.

[darkinbad] 14/7/2005 12:46

Car dealer dented by Rover crash
By Dominic White (Filed: 14/07/2005)


Reg Vardy chief executive Sir Peter Vardy yesterday vented his anger over the collapse of MG Rover, which left the car dealership nursing a £2.8m exceptional full-year hit.

The company, which operated four Rover dealerships, blamed the charge for a 4pc drop in pre-tax profits to £43.8m.

"I'm feeling pretty rough about the situation," said Sir Peter. "I went to see key executives of Rover in January and they assured me that everything was all right and that a deal with Shanghai Automotive International Co was going through. Then Rover ends up in administration. After a 20-year association it leaves a really bad taste."

More than £1m of the charge relates to a provision Reg Vardy made to cover its exposure to warranties on Rovers it sold that would otherwise not be covered by the manufacturer. "We have a moral obligation to look after our customers," said Sir Peter. The rest of the charge relates to unpaid sales bonuses from Rover and write-downs on the residual value of new and used Rovers and parts held in stock.

Reg Vardy said it was not expecting to take any more charges relating to the collapse. It still operates three Rover dealerships, in Stockton, Darlington and Felling, but said these would be refranchised. Stripping out exceptional items, profits fell from £40.9m to £35.2m as the group suffered from waning consumer spending and the loss-making acquisitions it made over the past two years.

Sir Peter said trading in May and June had been better than a year ago but added that he expected the new car market to remain subdued.

"The outlook was better than anticipated," said Numis Securities analyst Mike Allen. "Vardy should start to benefit from cost restructuring and enhanced performances from acquisitions undertaken over the past couple of years."

The full-year dividend is up 10pc to 17.6p. The shares rose 13 to 547p.

[darkinbad] 13/7/2005 19:13

Yes Car Credit slump hits doorstep lender
This is Money

12 July 2005
DOORSTEP lender Provident Financial today warned that its Yes Car Credit business could lose as much as £20m this year.

The group, based in Bradford, West Yorkshire, said sales volumes in the first five months of 2005 were down 26% at Yes Car Credit , which was the subject of an investigation by BBC reporters earlier this year.

The group said depressed market conditions were to blame for the fall rather than negative publicity from the Whistleblower programme, which claimed that Yes customers were lied to and potentially dangerous cars were sold on to them.

Problems identified by the report were isolated at its Croydon branch and Provident said it has taken action, including retraining all its staff. Chief executive Robin Ashton said the programme had 'very limited' impact on the performance of Yes, pointing out that the decline in sales volumes was similar in the months before and after it was shown on TV.

Instead, Mr Ashton said its trading troubles 'reflected consumer confidence and we believe our close competitors are seeing a similar sort of performance'.

Investors appeared to be getting out of the company's stock this morning: the shares were down 49p, or 7%, at 686½p.

Yes Car Credit made a pre-tax loss of £4.6m in the five months to 31 May as margins came under pressure from greater investment in improving the preparation and quality of vehicles put up for sale, he said.

At the same time, Provident has struggled to increase sales of optional products such as payment protection insurance at Yes and was unable to collect as many bad debts as last year.

Provident said: 'The performance of the group at this half-year is likely to be below market expectations, but only as a result of the poor performance at Yes Car Credit.'

Shares fell 6% even though Provident said it was implementing a 'comprehensive improvement plan' to restore profitability. This included a string of management changes. The initial target was to move the business back to break-even in 2006, the company said.

But it was not enough to prevent investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein from cutting its forecasts for Yes Car Credit from losses of £2.7m to a deficit of £18m.

Bill Barnard, an analyst at Dresdner, said Provident appeared to have taken very firm action over what it can control at Yes and the remainder of its operations remained 'progressive as the balance between strong international growth and UK consolidation is played out'.

He added: 'We still feel Provident is playing a difficult deck well.'

The core business of Provident is loans to low-income families. The group said its UK home credit business continued to produce a solid performance against a backdrop of competitive market conditions.

Although customer numbers at the end of May were 4% lower than a year earlier, credit issued in 2005 so far was up 5% after the company selectively increased loans to lower-risk, established customers.

[darkinbad] 13/7/2005 10:47

UK-Analyst, "High-risk lender Provident Financial is having troubles with its car loan business."

"Provident Financial issued a full-year profits warning, due to problems at its Yes Car Credit unit. The unit assists members of the Burberry-wearing classes that have bad credit rating to buy cars, assuming they wish to give up their joy-riding years. But the group said that the largest of its group's businesses, UK home credit continued to produce a solid performance. Results for the first half were therefore likely to be below market expectations. the shares slid 63p to 672.5p"

[darkinbad] 13/7/2005 09:37

Reg Vardy reports yearly turnover of £1.72bn up from £1.61bn and a pre-tax profit of £43.8m from £45.6m and stays positive for the full year despite seeing the market for new cars seen to remain subdued

[lordgnome] 07/5/2005 10:02

Turning down again. If 260 fails this time then its all the way to 240 next stop.

[csb2] 28/4/2005 21:09

If 260 gets breached anyone got any thoughts on where this could go?

With the mg problem, general retail issues on the high street and the swift growth of pdg (sometimes a problem), I can't see any benefit to being long on this for the foreseeable future and a price of 220 doesn't seem out of the question to me?

[beorn in the usa] 18/4/2005 20:31

Downtrend continued all day....and no recovery with the FTSE says this is going down much further.

I reckon the car industry is going to struggle big time this year, and PDG will be much lower by the end of the summer.

[beorn in the usa] 18/4/2005 10:23

The tax rebate was good news, but I know for a fact that they will be massively hit by the MGRover debacle. (I was looking round 2 pendragon MG dealers in my area only a few months ago).

Short for the forseeable future.

[bangers] 14/4/2005 13:44

Yet another increase in holding RNS, thats 6 or seven in the past few weeks. Seems to me that the price is being held back for this reason. Any views?

14 April 2005

NO: 467

PENDRAGON PLC ('Pendragon')

On 13 April 2005 Morley Fund Management Limited confirmed that its total
notifiable interest in the ordinary shares in Pendragon has increased to
12,045,631 shares, representing 9.18% of Pendragon's issued share capital.

HILARY C SYKES

14 April 2005

[speedieruk] 04/4/2005 22:23

A little snippet which might be of interest.



Ex-Polk executive to head UK Cadillac operation

4th April 2005

Malcolm Wade, former chief operating office of the British, then German-based international arm of market intelligence firm Polk & Co., has been appointed to run the UK sales operation of Cadillac, on behalf of European distributor Kroymans.

Pendragon plc will be the sole retailer for Cadillac and Chevrolet Corvette models in the UK. Before joining Polk, Wade was UK managing director of Rolls-Royce Bentley's sales operation.

[bangers] 10/3/2005 09:35

Looks like a test of the 320 breakout? I got back in yesterday, perhaps slightly too soon in hinsight but i needed to roll to June anyway.

[jedi trader] 04/3/2005 13:41

i cant afford to hang around for too long, maybe until next friday.

All good stuff though.

[bangers] 04/3/2005 13:17

I recon there's some resistance around 330-330 than after that not much untill the high 340's. Wish i bought more now. LOL