Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[bmw566] 06/2/2008 16:41

This could get interesting. Looks like the rumour is a consortium of Lookers, Brammal and a third party. On the other hand, this could be a story put out to get the share price up, so that some concerted shorting will follow. When did I get so cynical!!

[pickymicky] 06/2/2008 15:32

Takeover rumours apparently.

[clepau676] 06/2/2008 15:12

kfp, come now read the post Nov and December period for the loss, and Jan is finance figures, sales were up in Jan on last year. But finance profit significantly down despite now have 2 business managers rather than one last year..

[bmw566] 06/2/2008 12:05

Good luck kfp through this one!

[kfp] 06/2/2008 11:57

BMW566
You are right,as a garage owner I have been through 2 big recession's (73/90) and a few small ones.This is not a overnight slowdown,my opinion is up to 2years before lending reaches a "normal" level .

Regards

[bmw566] 06/2/2008 10:02

Interesting reading everyone's takes. I have discovered that the reason Auto Finance company did so well in January was that accept rates have continued to be quite high, whereas competitors have cut theirs. The company I worked for are now cutting theirs, so volumes are going to fall significantly.

Extrapolating this. Finance companies on mass are just starting to really tighten their lending criteria. Many sub prime brokers went bust last year. Dealerships will likely struggle to place marginal business, which will impact on their F&I income.

National Accounts have for many years been in the enviable position of being able to dictate terms to Finance companies. I think the tide may be turning and any finance company surviving in the auto finance business will be the one who pulls the strings. This will further impact on Dealer margins.

I thought that the tide may be turning, but now think we are moving into a much deeper and longer slow down.

[kfp] 06/2/2008 09:05

Audi sales up 18% in January,your dealer needs to give more for his choppers !!
Regards
KFP
(Car dealer 42yrs)

[clepau676] 06/2/2008 02:55

Guys I work in the industry with alot of dealers my day to day activity is with about 200 retailers mainly in the bulk brands..

However

One of my dealers an Audi Dealer is down 36k on Finance profit alone in Jan 08 compared to 07

That same dealer lost over 400k in November and Decmber compared to a plan of 60k loss

Another dealer group had one site which sold a mere 3 new Vauxhalls in January, this is a main dealer in a good location.

A ford group I am working with tell me they have to sell 120% of target to earn any real money.. And the way ford have structered it is you have to do 90% of your jan target to be able to get the big money in the quarter.. This is a BIG issue as if dealers registered alot of cars to get QTR 4 last year. They WILL have plainty of pre reg cars in stock.. Costing them money..

This will mean you have to have HUGE balls to buy aload of pre reg again in Jan BUT if they don't they won't earn big in qtr 1 08..

This is new thing ford is doing never done it before and dealers found out this year..

Now PDG MIGHT have a seperate agreement but if not they are in trouble..

Another thing is Citroen,, PDG is about 30% of Citroen Volumn... And a serious contributor to PDG BOTTOM LINE.. This is Rumour only BUT I have been told PDG did not buy a pack of cars in Jan and this is the first month in years that that has happened..

Not Holding watching with interest, I think it will burst, considering shorting.. But then the gamberler in me thinks they have some NICE assets. Pinewood, Some good good will dealers, Some property the PA etc all stacks up if i wasnt in the industry I am sure I would be punting these

[bmw566] 05/2/2008 22:00

So you're not seeing any signs of a pick-up yet Salpara111 by the sounds of it.

Looks like things are not improving in the states either where Pendragon has some exposure. Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that auto sales fell sharply during January. Reports from the major U.S. automakers suggest that auto sales will continue to decline during the months ahead.

At some time this will be a cracking buy, but think it has further to fall. Looking for 20p to enter again, averaging down.

[salpara111] 04/2/2008 21:08

I have been watching and waiting but will not move until I see the final results which should be soon.
I work in the industry and am aware that everyone is suffering at present. Car retailing is a volume driven business, most industry observers expect the new car market to be down about 4% this year which is a big swing from a 2.5% rise last year and can easily make the difference between a good profit or a loss for a volume franchise.
I also want to see that they are still holding the line on the dividend. If they do cut or cancel the dividend then the share price can go lower as it will loose its short term support. Fundamentally I dont see the business failing but there are clearly going to be leaner times ahead.

[bmw566] 04/2/2008 13:00

Deutshe bank accumulating too. I think they are more likely to be long term holders.

[bmw566] 04/2/2008 13:00

Deutshe bank accumulating too. I think they are more likely to be long term holders.

[bmw566] 31/1/2008 21:32

Interesting. Could be accumulating to short hard, i'm wary.

[muffinhead] 31/1/2008 21:09

24/1/08 LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Pendragon PLC said MF Global UK Ltd has a notifiable interest in the voting rights over 19.77 mln shares, representing
3.01 pct of the company's issued share capital.


Surprised no comment on this rns. MF Global UK Ltd ...www.mfglobal.com...are not your typical institutional investor. "world's leading broker of exchange-listed futures and options"

Any views on this?

[muffinhead] 31/1/2008 13:03

PDG down 75% from peak

Fed slashing rates 125 basis points, BOE easing next week and poss down to 4.5% end 08, means anglosaxon countries are reinflating their economies. A new cycle starts and interest rate sensitive shares should do well.

[imabastard] 29/1/2008 08:56

.....it's also about renewal of franchise agreements from the manufacturers ....not just about wanting to buy a cherry picked site or two....

[clepau676] 15/1/2008 03:57

About half are losing alot of money 2 or 3 good performers will be snapped up straight away by neighborring groups.. I would'nt be suprised to see VERTU sniffing a few of the sites.

[gelp] 14/1/2008 21:25

Will some one pick it up?
Reduces competion short term surely.

[clepau676] 14/1/2008 20:42

Caledonia Group have gone pop 12 Dealers..

[cockneyrebel] 13/1/2008 18:50

Gelp:

"CR why did directors make such large buys at 81 and then far more at 35 - surely most bad news built in price by now.

Directors getting it wrong when buying wouldn't be a first - Homebuy Chairman bought £250k worth three weeks before it went bust.

Lets wonder about this. What if the 80p share price buy came just as the credit crunch started - after all, they bought at the beginning of August. They were obviously caught out because by November wthey were warning.

They have bought again after warning. But so many directors from so many companies have - yet their shares still plunge. Are these directors really realising we might be hitby a recession?

Now if we are going to have a recession I can tell you that back in 2001 Lookers traded on a fwd PE of 5 and they had a genuine true PEG which was very low (that means 5 years earnings growth for a true PEG). If we are in for a sharp slow down the car delears will trade on PE's of 5. PDG are trading on a PE of 5 now, but that's if forecasts don't get cut. They are expected to do 3.5p eps this yewar and 5.2p next year. I doubt that, not with US car sales tanking. I be 3p is likely to be the best. That would mean a share price of 15p.

Whoever asked above, I don't think PDG have a stake in LOOK but the Bramalls hold over 20% of Lookers.

CR

[bmw566] 13/1/2008 17:02

Thought you might be interested in this chart. I found it on Yahoo! Finance today. You can access the chart at the following link:


Not a chartist, but looks ugly. I don't think I will be buying again until 20p. I also think that Lookers will not take out Pendragon. Can't find any information on shares that Pendragon hold in Lookers i'm afraid.

[gelp] 13/1/2008 00:40

Thanks for recent posts.
I empathise with last one BMW366. Can t see em rolling over to Lookers after previous battles - and look share price on floor as well. I am still unclear as to whether PDG still hold big stake in Lookers or not? My guess is that PDG will have a 2nd shot or if not at a few others. Down turn is always followed by up turn - cars dont last forever and PDG best consolidators going.
Sympathy for job losers but can't blame PDG.
The big trick is to spot the bottom - thought was 30!