Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[bmw566] 12/1/2008 13:22

I worked for Auto Finance Company, just been made redundant!! We were down 50% on volumes in 2007 and massive redundancy programme has commenced. I always viewed Pendragon as the best player in the Market. Canny, ruthless management, who always seemed to negotiate better deals than their competitors, inevitably loss making for ourselves. I was talking to a member of their SMT last March and he predicted 12 to 18 months of downturn and large numbers of smaller dealerships folding. He seemed confident that Pendragon would survive, buying up choice smaller dealerships, that folded, on the way. I believe Lookers are eyeing them up at the moment. I think I may have bought into Pendragon too early - 30p - but am nervous about buying any more, until market, which is as dire as I can remember starts to change.

[bmw566] 12/1/2008 13:03

Thanks for your comments regvardy999, they are really informative. Could you let us know when/if sentiment starts to change, and colleagues start to buy shares again.

[regvardy999] 12/1/2008 10:24

hi

i work for PDG at one of the top performing dealerships. Our figs are down massively from 200 cars per month to around 120. For last 3 years our dealership has made anything between 850k to 1.2m, this year we havent hit 500k and we are still in the top few.

On our computer system you can check previous years sales numbers and profits for all dealerships and everyone is down massively. Also they have increaseds everyones targets for 2008 which are highley unachievable, which means less bonus/ commissions will paid, key people are leaving left right and centre.

People are bailing out of the share save scheme too, at the end of the scheme we can buy at around £1.30, which seems miles off at the moment. I have over 5k saved in the scheme which is about to be pulled out.

Overall the noises from the dealerships is that its very tough and not just because its the wrong time of year, dealerships performances are mirroring the share priceat the moment and are on the way down.

Colleagues talk about buying as the share price is low but nobody has got the bottle as they see the price and monthly sales continue to fall..

[gelp] 12/1/2008 01:56

Are PDG still holding big stake in Lookers? Suggestion on Lookers thread of possible offer for PDG? Could there be consolidation for each? Lots of Director buys in both camps on way down. November rns was clearly reaffirmed late December. Sentiment poor but pdg still number 1 i believe - better shape than many.

[clepau676] 11/1/2008 03:35

I work in the industry at a very senior level, Looking into my Crystal Ball heres some things i think on the PDG front.. I'm not holding btw

They will sell Pinewood there computer devision, give the reason of focusing on core business etc..

They are suffering because VERTU HAVE taken all of the switched on management from VARDY. Vardy part of the business is effectively running wild .... with no one with the calibre of skill needed in control..

They are selling at below cost and reliant on Back end money and basically its just not happening ..

There Used car stock management is the worst its ever been putting pressure on the used part of the business..

One dealer I know a ford dealer lost a deal to Evans Halshaw who sold the car £700 cheaper than the dealer I know buys the car from ford for.. PDG will have some big back end money deals with manufacturers but I am not sure its anywhere near £700 per unit better than other main dealer groups plus they have to clean, pdi and pay the sales man.. Ok i know theres finance profit but this was a cash deal...

In serious trouble..

TURNOVER is vanity PROFIT is Sanity

[imabastard] 11/1/2008 00:18

Gelp - Perhaps they believed that 35p was as low as it was going to get....which is what they also thought at 81p.

This stock price is affected also by the FTSE performance, so if there is a follow through on the FTSE tomorrow from the rebound on the DOW (assuming no further adverse effect from the interest rate hold), this may stop it's descent....at least in the short term....but am not wholly convinced.

However, the "motor trade" companies (md's of suppliers and competitors) are in the main expressing major concerns about PDG, it's gearing, it's debt, it's excessive discounting below cost to desperately create some turnover, rather than profit etc etc. Also, this implies that they are struggling to meet the vehicle sales numbers targeted by the manufacturers and stand to lose any bonuses that may be associated with that.

The success of centralised control/management of a car retail group has been lost in part by having far too many sites than they can cope with. Either, their centralised structure has been insufficiently manned or just badly managed. Morale of their sales force throughout their sites, understandably, is at a low ebb and they are losing numerous key salespeople applying to competitors for jobs. Part of their pay structure is based on the "group" performance and not soley on their own individual sales/ their own site's sales, which is not the case with many other groups.

In the past, even the recent past, their aquisitions have been questionable, with poor brand choice within the brand performance life cycle and paying over the market value for retail sites as "going concerns". Also, by far, they do not own all of their sites as manufacturers also like to own retail property and lease it out to the retailer awarded the franchise.

It would be a brave choice to buy what is perceived as a pile of debt and would require serious accounting wizardry to make a purchase to be seen as viable. Often, I have read on this thread that their property is undervalued but commercial property is taking an enormous hit countrywide, so the picture is worsening.

Looking at the pricing chart, and purely from a resistance/support perspective, I wasn't sure whether 30p would be a support price as it had formed what seemed a "double bottom" formation , but it appears now not to be the case.

The general Uk car retail market conditions cannot be blamed for the PDG poor performance. Other car retail groups are succeeding in securing a bigger slice of the smaller cake. Their poor USA performance fits into the same category too.

[gelp] 10/1/2008 15:35

CR why did directors make such large buys at 81 and then far more at 35 - surely most bad news built in price by now -

[jdung] 10/1/2008 14:10

at 29p. very small size trade,
I NOTED AT 3 WEEKS AGO,
big city boys trade aT 31-36P.
so will back to 35p .

[cockneyrebel] 10/1/2008 13:26

time to get shorting this one imo - 12% yield will be sliced to pieces.

Absolute ton of debt and the co scurrying about flogging property to try to stay alive.

US car sales down 8%, German car sales down, UK consumer skint an up to the gills in mortgages and credit cards.

Feburay the 15th results are going to look like the day after the St Valentine's Day massacre imo.

Chart falling over - making new lows.

CR

[freedosh] 06/1/2008 21:24

The Bulford Files
Worth a subscription IMO
freedosh

[masurenguy] 06/1/2008 08:48

That implies that it's someone elses tip - care to elaborate ?

[freedosh] 05/1/2008 15:13

No not RHPS
freedosh

[masurenguy] 05/1/2008 09:29

Is this another RHPS tip ?

[freedosh] 04/1/2008 14:53

I have bought and still buying. share price action looks silly.
Am I missing something?
freedosh

[barkjon23] 04/1/2008 14:47

Now down 10% today. Am watching from the sidelines

[freedosh] 04/1/2008 12:21

11% yield. Massive property play (potential)
A recovery play, if ever I saw one.
Suggest peeps subscribe to The Bulford Files and DYOR
freedosh

[anjam] 28/12/2007 13:42

Is this kind of volume normal for PDG?

[alansmith23] 28/12/2007 09:46

uptrend being established, possibly 30 was the bottom. Still a massive dividend at this price.

[ydderf] 27/12/2007 08:20

on the other hand the cash generated from property sales and trading activities could change that to a positive number very quickly......

[richardbroughton] 26/12/2007 13:48

Yes, thanks for that, stopped me buying, must look in more detail in future!

[ydderf] 25/12/2007 07:19

Only if you include intangibles, otherwise shareholder funds are negative!

[richardbroughton] 24/12/2007 09:41

Am I right in thinking that the NAV is nearly 50% more than the Market cap?

[wyorke] 21/12/2007 15:15

31p, buy ?

[ydderf] 21/12/2007 08:01

don't wait much longer - the company is telling you this imho, with today's announcement.......