Pcf Share Discussion Threads

[dandigirl] 28/9/2022 08:40

Just to add that there was no point in asking questions at meetings. Stran always gave some excuse or other for not being in a position to respond with anything meaningful. Suspect he and Richardson will be gone very soon.

[dandigirl] 28/9/2022 08:37

Graham, thanks. Surely this has to be worth more than 3p a share?

PCF injected at 5p. Last NAV from Richardson was 16.5p, I think.

Somewhere between these figures?

We have averaged down to below 10p.

Share our pain or pleasure when the offer price is known. :)

[graham1ty] 28/9/2022 08:08

Dandi, judging by tiny, tiny volumes every day, most people have given up, or written this off as a zero. There have been no speculators, or rampers. At the various meetings there have been next to no questions, and few attendees. Everyone has given up.

So, it would nice to think that someone, somewhere, sees potential value in the supposed offer. However, judging by the last year ( and the six months down at about 2p) no one is going to take a big punt on a reasonable offer from Castle

[dandigirl] 28/9/2022 07:51

Price on opening should be interesting.

[graham1ty] 27/9/2022 18:03

How much more due diligence do they need…….

[hopespr1ngseternal] 27/9/2022 17:09

Further one month extension to enable due diligence to be completed.Commercial terms agreed for all share takeover with cash alternative for minority shareholders.

[goddamitmaverick] 27/9/2022 14:13

I doubt CT has the stomach for a deal in this market, but I think there will be others who might if the price is sensible. The constant extensions undermine the principle of make an offer or walk away .

[cc2014] 27/9/2022 13:39

It's hard to believe anyone would still be doing any work on this.

However, on the other hand someone has bought a few shares this morning, which seems a very strange thing to do today given the pessism on interest rates.

[dandigirl] 27/9/2022 08:37

So, it appears it was put up or shut up.

[cc2014] 21/9/2022 10:00

I sort of agree Graham but I'm not it's clear to me the business model was ever great and I say that as an ex-shareholder who believed in what I heard from Scott and had poured over the numbers.

For sure, if you ignore the impairments it was profitable. I think they weren't booking enough impairments though in a timely manner and thus they flowed through later in big lumps. I think the impairments are probably kitchen-sinked and could now be more than they need to be.

I'm also not sure the cost base was ever right to take on the costs of running a bank. I agree it shouldn't be the extra £10m or whatever, but ticking along underneath it should have been a bit, say £2m pulled out of thin air higher. The £2m would/should have avoided the mess PCF has become.

What I can see is that regardless of well or badly PCF was being run and whether the cost base was or is correct or not, others are making it work and therefore PCF should be able to do so going forward. Albeit, it's my view the impairment number for all banks is going to start looking problematic for the next couple of years, which is absolutely the worst timing for PCF.


What I hope for all shareholders is that the new non-exec is pragmatic and able to help forge a path where the £10m of overhead can be reduced. That's what's needed.

[graham1ty] 21/9/2022 09:30

CC, the business model was NOT flawed on the original cost base. A relatively small headcount had enormous operational gearing as PCF lending rose.

The issue is not the business model but the new, supposedly “necessaryR21;, mind boggling cost base. Not so long ago, with a loan book of similar level as today, with NIM not far away, PCF was very profitable. That basic model is good.

What you cannot do is add £10m of overhead, with no increase in revenue, and expect to make money.

[cc2014] 21/9/2022 09:24

The deadline of a week looks like a "put up or shut up" move from PCF to me. Which I see as a good thing. If a deal can't be put together after this length of time it seems appropriate to either conclude the matter or move on. I'm sure it's taken up far too much management time and distracted from getting on with fixing the business.



I can't make my mind up about the new non-exec. On the upside PCF is slowly formulating a Board that is sufficiently heavyweight to ease investors concerns (and perhaps the regulators). On the other someone with that many years at the BOE seems likely to lean towards more remediation rather than less.


#4220 The challenge is that PCF is losing money, year on year and has apparently done so against the lowest employment levels we've seen in decades. It suggests the business model is flawed. As we head into the winter impairments will rise as the cost of living crisis takes more and more effect and it's hard to see the NIM not coming under considerable pressure.
The resolution to this is to get the cost base down without shrinking the business. The question is how do-able is shrinking the cost base.

[graham1ty] 21/9/2022 07:33

David, I have sent you a private message

[123davidgwilym] 20/9/2022 20:18

When I was appointed chairman in 2011 you could buy shares for less than 10p and I bought quite a lot.
At that time the business was much smaller than today with serious default problems. Without a banking licence we were dependent on the support of a dubious bank plus a few reliable block discounters.
The business today is far larger and PCF is a bank. I can’t believe it could be worth less now than then, despite some serious but correctable management errors.

[graham1ty] 20/9/2022 19:56

Hope, I am not against a deal with Castle, in fact I think it may be the only chance PCF has, as part of a larger group. What % of the larger group remains to be seen.

My comment about heaven forfend was sarcastic, related to all the delays.

[dandigirl] 20/9/2022 19:34

Graham: """I say it again and again, the destruction of shareholder value for supposed “remediation” activity is staggering. This business has been destroyed by the very process of trying to “save it”. The cure has proved a lot worse than the disease…."""

My view, too. IMV caused by Richardson kicking up a fuss and threatening to walk if it wasn't done her way. It was no cost spared to uncover what exactly? Manual entries to regulatory returns and the poor treatment of bad debts. Drama Queen indeed.

Doubt if we will ever know the truth. This lot will not want a light shone on their activities over the last year or so.

.. and why on earth would Carol Sergeant want to join this tiny outfit. Answer: Another big pay-out ahead of retirement. i.e. yet more cost to the bottom line. She certainly isn't there to expand the business.

And does she know what is cooking with Castle?

I hoped the Castle discussions would fail. If it is good for Castle it won't be for the rest of us. Would rather the RI went ahead and re-built the business with a better people.

[hopespr1ngseternal] 20/9/2022 18:40

Graham, why are you so opposed to a deal with Castle? Plainly there are no good options but Castle may be the least bad.

[hopespr1ngseternal] 20/9/2022 18:33

A positive appointment. She has a great resume including 24 years at BoE.

[graham1ty] 20/9/2022 18:22

And, I know Somers was taken private in July. They would still produce figures until end June surely ?

[graham1ty] 20/9/2022 18:20

I do keep an eye on Somers, just to see if there is any read through.Somers produced 1Q figures to end Dec in Feb; 2Q figures to end March in May.

Where are the 3Q figures for the three months to 30 June ? Last year released on 17 August

[graham1ty] 20/9/2022 18:15

How many times can you shuffle the deckchairs on good ship PCF ? Throw Titmuss overboard first though…….

Clutching at straws…..why would Carol Sergeant agree to join as the stern begins to slide below the water ? And, if a deal is announced within a week ( heaven forfend), how can she possibly be expected to sign off on it as good for shareholders with no knowledge of the last two years.

I say it again and again, the destruction of shareholder value for supposed “remediation” activity is staggering. This business has been destroyed by the very process of trying to “save it”. The cure has proved a lot worse than the disease…..

[hopespr1ngseternal] 20/9/2022 17:07

A further extension of one week.

[hopespr1ngseternal] 20/9/2022 13:57

Pretty clear that no deal

[goddamitmaverick] 20/9/2022 13:50

Difficult to read for sure but my instinct is that if there was a deal it would have been rolled out in an early announcement. That said , yesterdays Bank Holiday could have had some effect on timings . Still suspect no deal .
So there you have it another week’s extension 🙄