Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[fft] 30/8/2017 11:20

PJ1. Thanks. What was the date of those estimates and which broker ?

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 11:02

Sales 15.7
Adj EBITDA 1.5
Adj PBT 1.1
Adj eps 0.5p

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 11:00

Strong final results CORP The group has reshaped its business over the past two years, strengthening management and operational infrastructure, increasing capacity and reviewing strategic emphasis. We anticipate a progressive revaluation given the potential growth profile in an addressable and fragmented international market. Our 2017 forecasts remain unchanged following the results which imply EBITDA growth of 26%, and we raise our target price to 6p, implying potential share price upside of 23%.
 Strong final results. The final results to December 2016 were in line with expectation. Revenue increased by 69% to £14.4m from £8.5m and compared with forecast of £13.2m. Adjusted EBITDA improved to a profit of £1.19m from £0.24m the previous year and compared with forecast £1.0m. Adjusted PBT was £0.93m after adjustments of £0.56m and stated PBT was £0.37m compared with forecast £0.40m.  Strategic and operational review. The group has reassessed its strategy to achieve its ambition to become the number one global attractions ‘design & build’ business in the world and has invested significantly to provide additional capacity in the business to facilitate longer-term growth. The business is now operating under a revised ‘3P’ strategy as follows: Projects: Focused on the traditional business of ‘design & build’; Partnerships: Focused on developing stronger relationships with key partners and their requirements globally for ‘design & build’ eg Hamleys; Products: eg the Family Entertainment Centres currently being rolled out themed with third-party brands.
 An internal review has also resulted in a complete update to the group’s IT infrastructure to improve efficiency and provide capacity for growth; the recruitment of new management in key areas such as HR, Purchasing and Contracts and Project management, and the creation of training and development plans for the entire business.  Valuation. The focus on valuation is now likely to switch to the 2017 financial year and moving the current EV/EBITDA multiple forward one year implies an increase to our target price to 6p from 5p.

[fft] 30/8/2017 10:50

Does anyone have any broker updates ? Or, indeed, what were the broker forecasts for this year before these interims ?

[3500sr] 30/8/2017 10:05

My buy went through as a sell

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 09:50

I fully agree with playful that MT's comments are 'music to the ears' and that PI'S cannot really ask for more than that. Also happy with the in-line and fundamental increase from 2016 to 2017

My issue though is that in just over 4 months we do not know what they will be saying that they will do. For a growth Company I think that's ludicrous and I'm not surprised we have seen some selling this morning on basically good /in-line HY. No mention even of the £20/20 targets

[1savvyinvestor] 30/8/2017 08:02

Well on target for full year £15.7 turnover. Excellent progress

[playful] 30/8/2017 07:40

“We continue to do what we say we will do” - Mark Taylor.

Now that’s what I like to see!

[fft] 21/8/2017 09:45

Or the overdraft is bigger !

[pj 1] 21/8/2017 09:40

ParagonCreative Retweeted
Andy Wilmer‏ @andywilmer Aug 19

More
@HelpforHeroes Awesome effort by everyone who took part & donated in @ToughMudder & thank you @ParagonCreative for matching what we raised.



They raised £3700 so we can deduce PEL's cash flow is positive at HY? :-//

[playful] 17/8/2017 22:42

I'd like to see some grass roots contracts won in Yorkshire something like the new Gulliver's Theme Parks, it's all well and good running around the globe but sometimes it's your own backyard that proves the most fruitful territory.

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 15:25

Its all about the Sales Dept now I'd say.

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 15:16

Ignoring the noise is one of the hardest things to do with medium/long term Investing. As 1savvy says it is definitely a Company striving for success and the positive vibes didn't come from just the BoD but other members of Staff we also met (with no BoD present)

[1savvyinvestor] 08/8/2017 14:45

If PJ and I have one major thing to add to discussion here it is that we have both seen at close quarters what an excellent company this is. Both of us were at the AGM this June and saw a company working at full tilt, increasing its turnover with a profit margin target of around 30%. Stated desire is £20 million turnover by 2020 which we both feel will be comfortably beaten. I am expecting that date to be brought forward and a higher target introduced.
We are both investors rather than traders here and are buying to hold. I'm hoping this slip in share price is totally unjustified and have topped up at 4p. Half year report will be out very shortly and I remain fully confident in the management.

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 11:41

fft-yes food for thought. ITQ is still lingering on.......

[fozzie] 08/8/2017 11:25

Painful fall.

[my retirement fund] 08/8/2017 11:22

Dipped a small toe in here finally

[fft] 08/8/2017 11:17

1savvy.

investors have lost more money by not listening to doubters than have made money listening to rampers ! Would you care to explain the case for "Fantastic company that will make investors a lot of money over coming couple of years" ?

PJ1.

I appreciate his attitude. Definitely better to under promise and over deliver, but he was very disingenuous by referring to RNS. Each individual order will be less than a material change, but overall they could be !

And there is definitely nothing stopping him putting out a trading update every 6 months. Are things still on the same track as in April when the AR was released ? I think he would like to take the company private then he wouldn't need to say anything :-)

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 11:11

fft- I get the impression, though I could be wrong, that Mark Taylor has no desire for Directors to ''manage'' the share price at all. Hence the frugal use of RNS?
They also did feed back at the AGM that Finncap are quite ''controlling'' (my words) over what can and cannot be RNS'd. I wasn't quite sure how to take that though!

[1savvyinvestor] 08/8/2017 10:52

Ramas coming back in a pathetic attempt to deramp. Fantastic company that will make investors a lot of money over coming couple of years. Summer weakness before an upward re-rate. Buy while you can!!

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 10:49

Yes, but I have no concerns at all here with depreciation/amortisation and current options (accept it can change quickly)

The advantage to normalised is that it can put comparitors on a more even keel. I have more concerns over R&D being capitalised etc etc

At the end of the day as we all know, cash is king.

[ramas] 08/8/2017 10:40

Hi PJ my fv is historic so one can argue for a higher number I get that. One concern is the usage of normalised earnings which is misleading , earnings will always be eroded by activities such as depreciation and most notably share options, a powerful tool when projects need to make tight deadlines from unforgiving customers

[phowdo] 08/8/2017 10:31

RSI indicating its already well oversold but could continue to drift down.
Its typical AIM where selling begets selling or buying prompts buying.
Punters rush in when its going up and then sell-up as interest wanes when news inevitable drys up and everyone chases the next "hot" stock.

[fft] 08/8/2017 10:22

It needs some news. Maybe I have missed it somewhere but I didn't see a H1 trading update - doesn't H1 finish end of june ? The AGM statement didn't mention H1 - which it did in 2016.

[pj 1] 08/8/2017 10:19

What's your calculation for a 'fair value' of 2p?